Happy donut day, Sydney

Via CoreLogic’s daily house price index:

Houses and Holes
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    • Even chances of the needle swinging back into the positive tomorrow, despite the alleged dampening of the signal by their methodology.

      Hopefully there will be some chickens to count tomorrow, but for now, only eggs.

    • I thought it likely that today would be The Big Day and I’d be breaking out the bubbly, but it wasn’t guaranteed because daily drops of 0.01 or 0.02 are quite common.

      It’s almost guaranteed that we’ll be negative by next Sunday though, as there was a gigantic jump of 0.41 points on 24-Feb-17, which took the index to 171.08 which is well above where it is today. It would take an unprecedented turn in the index to get past that hurdle. That’s why I predicted Saturday 24th as the day at the start of the year.

      The big question, of course, is whether the downward trend is sustained throughout the year, or whether it gradually turns around under a new influx of Chinese “students”, changed government policies or whatever.

      I reckon it will keep going downwards, and Peachy can finally happy up. 🙂

      • Any sign of the Chinese buyers in Sydney? Seem to be fewer Chinese looking people than I’ve seen for two or three years in Melbourne CBD so far this year, even during CNY.

  1. Hey reus, I’m wondering if “happy donut day” has a different meaning down your neck of the woods?

  2. It is mostly being driven down by apartments isn’t it (the index includes apartments and houses). Do they report separately for houses as compared to apartments (as I expect houses are holding up reasonably well?)

    • It will take some time for a titanic to turn which has tons of inertia. Speculators will go extraordinary lengths to “hang in there”, regardless of how long and how much they will need to endure.

      After their collective hopes have hung by a thread for a prolong time, eventually a moment will come that the thread gives in.

    • A long way to go yet. Assuming they ignore their transaction costs of 5%+ and finance costs (probably a fair assumption) I think you’ll need to see a drop of around 5% (call it a quarter of what was dropped for a 20% deposit) before the “oh sh1t” moment starts to hit. That wave will break depending on your entry point, so it’ll be last in first out I’d expect.

      • Last in first out – that’d be good for recent FHB’s wouldn’t it? Although they wouldn’t see it that way.

  3. And all those transaction costs too. Pity the average battler just trying to get ahead and have a closet full of white T-shirts.
    A day of infamy.

  4. A sign Realestate agents are getting desperate, just had a phone call from an agent that I had gone to an open house 5 years ago, asking if I had bought a place. I said no. She said are you looking, I said give it around a year and I might be. She said when I was ready to give them a ring and they could help me out. A sign of things to come

    • Actually, for the six months or so,we haven’t had one real estate letter/ card asking us if we would like our house valued, for sale by them to an already eagerly waiting buyer. We used to get those unsolicited notes at least once a week.
      Also had the experience of the phone call asking if we are still interested after looking at a nearby house about 4 years ago-we were looking at moving elderly relatives closer, but didn’t follow through.

      • Yeah I now just get letters in the mail that show a house actually sold and what price! As if to say, “look, we can still sell today!”. But far less bragging about stock selling at $200K above reserve.

  5. WERE WOMEN LIBERATED TO BECOME MORTGAGE SLAVES … REALLY ?

    A new wave of female employment is coming to the rescue of the Aussie economy … Domain Australia

    https://www.domain.com.au/money-markets/a-new-wave-of-female-employment-is-coming-to-the-rescue-of-the-aussie-economy-20180213-h0w0fa/

    Women in the Australian workforce are coming to the rescue of the economy, with official data showing a huge rise in employment numbers was significantly boosted by middle-aged women.

    Housing affordability issues could be a key trigger behind the jump in the number of women in full-time employment, according to a senior Commonwealth Bank economist Kristina Clifton, who notes a clear relationship between housing affordability and jobs figures.

    The Australian labour market soared in 2017, with 403,100 jobs created – almost four times as many as the previous year and the most on record – and the participation rate for women entering the workforce jumped 1.3 percentage points to a record high 60.6 per cent, compared with just 0.5 percentage points for men. … read more via hyperlink above …
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    Dear Editor: ‘The bottom line is that many women are stressed and overworked’ – Independent.ie

    https://www.independent.ie/life/dear-editor-the-bottom-line-is-that-many-women-are-stressed-and-overworked-36503784.html

    Dear Editor: ‘The bottom line is that many women are stressed and overworked’

    A mother-of-two penned a letter to Independent.ie this week to express how she would readily give up her professional job to rear and bring up her kids, but she feels trapped by the cost of her mortgage repayments. The mum, who wishes to remain anonymous, says she feels that being a mother is, for her, the most important job in the world, but she feels that life in Ireland is such that both parents must work outside the home in order to make ends meet. Read her letter here: … read more via hyperlink above …
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    Mrs Doonan with her husband and two children seemed to live OK in Sydney 1966 … when housing was affordable …

    SYDNEY AUSTRALIA 1966 – YOUTUBE VIDEO

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vR1CU8NjGW0

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      I like those old videos. A startling lack of neck tattoos and obesity though. Must all be actors selling a fairy tale.

    • 1′ 58″ -> The rush is on; 250,000 people board the electric trains. Oh me, oh my!
      2′ 57″ -> Sydney Bridge peak hour HA – you call that peak hour – I can still fit 2 lanes and a pile-up in those gaps.
      4′ 00″ -> What a gal – hot as the soldering iron she’s using! 😛
      4′ 57″ -> Judi is working in one of the stores until she marries. Oh dear.
      19’08” -> Fish is still alive, considering the neighbourhood landscape. No airstrip foam poisoning I guess.. Just good old asbestos 😀

    • You should search up “They’re a Weird Mob”. An Italian immigrant working as a builder’s labourer in the late 1950’s saves up enough money to buy a block of land with a fabulous view over Sydney Harbour. His prospective father-in-law is unimpressed because there is no house yet.