Essential: No change to Labor victory march

Via The Guardian:

An emphatic majority of Australians want a pay rise if companies get a tax cut courtesy of the Turnbull government’s commitment to cut the corporate rate to 25%, according to the latest Guardian Essential poll.

The latest poll of 1,026 respondents shows 72% of the sample would approve of forcing businesses to pass on a certain proportion of their tax cuts as pay rises for their workers, and the approval for that trade-off stretches across all voting groups, and across full-time and part-time workers.

The government is vowing to press ahead with its proposed company tax cuts despite the fact published polling suggests the idea is politically unpopular, but the idea of making the tax cut conditional on giving workers a wage rise has been ruled out by the treasurer, Scott Morrison.

In an interview with Guardian Australia last week, Morrison flatly rejected the idea. “It is a highly interventionist method. It’s at odds with the way the Liberal and National parties would pursue growth in the economy.”

The Turnbull government’s new year efforts to put the chaos and political contention of 2017 behind it have been derailed by public controversy over the end of the 24-year marriage of the deputy prime minister, Barnaby Joyce, and his relationship with his former staffer, Vikki Campion, who went on to other government roles.

With that controversy blowing up publicly last week after months of rumour and speculation, the latest Guardian Essential poll has Labor steady in an election-winning position federally, ahead of the Coalition on the two party preferred measure, 54% to 46% – the same result as a fortnight ago.

Turnbull remains ahead of Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister, 42% to 27%, a 2% improvement for Shorten since the question was asked last month, and 31% of the sample were undecided.

The prime minister’s approval ratings are marginally better than the Labor leader, with 39% approving of the job he is doing as prime minister (up 1% from last month), and 42% disapproving (down 3%) – which is a change in net approval rating from -7 to -3.

Comments

    • GunnamattaMEMBER

      Both parties are tiptoeing around this – they know there is a lot of rogering of subordinates in Canberra.

      It appears that Sam Dastayari has returned to the public domain (at least the Twitter part of it) last night with a statement of the blinding obvious, and with ‘I Love you written in Chinese – which suggests better humour than I thought he had.- and now Fairfax has the knives out for Barnaby too

      Ousted Labor senator Sam Dastyari weighs in to Barnaby Joyce scandal
      https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/ousted-labor-senator-sam-dastyari-weighs-in-to-barnaby-joyce-scandal-20180213-p4z03s.html

      Malcolm Turnbull’s senior adviser was warned of alleged awards night misbehaviour by Barnaby Joyce
      https://www.theage.com.au/politics/federal/malcolm-turnbulls-senior-advisor-warned-of-alleged-awards-night-misbehavior-from-barnaby-joyce-20180212-h0vz4w.html

      and then there are the Porkies being told to people on the same side…..

      National MP says he was told Joyce relationship was over when he hired Campion
      https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2018/feb/12/pms-office-says-campions-jobs-didnt-break-rules-because-she-wasnt-joyces-partner

      The line yesterday about the PMs office not having any issue with Barnaby’s girlfriend working in other Ministerial offices because she wasnt his ‘partner’ is a load of hogwash and a gate left wide open for abuse.

      We had the Rorts imbroglio a year or so ago (and still nothing has been done about auditing the outlays on political allowances)
      The S44 imbroglio rumbled on for most of the back half of last year

      But politicians sleeping with subordinates, public servants, and people they shouldnt – while spouting a public line on public morality is likely to be a Krakatoa size eruption – and I dont think they (either side) can put it back in the bottle from here, and there will be some outrageous scalps (on both sides).

      The real question from here is whether a Barnaby sacrifice (0nly weeks after he re-won his seat after falling foul of S44) would take the heat off the whole issue of political sex perks – and you wouldnt think the Nationals would want that.

      or

      Whether the conservative side of Australian politics (because the Liberals are neck deep in this too) will try and tough it out behind a very flimsy defence – in the knowledge that there are others in their midst with the same hide the sausage mindset which spouting families in public.

      or

      Whether they go Mutually Assured Destruction by opening up about the ALP members (and there are known to be such) sleeping around…….(and it should be identified that there are reports in Canberra about a Greens man being good with the peccadilloes too).

      Go long popcorn shares is the broker tip of the day

      • Holy Jeebus, he’s finished!

        True Crime News Weekly has previously reported that Ms Campion was not the first staffer to allegedly fall pregnant to Mr Joyce following an illicit office affair. That particular junior staffer though allegedly underwent an abortion following her dalliance with the politician who had regularly claimed same-sex marriage would destroy the ‘traditional marriages’ of heterosexual people like him. Mr Joyce – a self-proclaimed conservative Catholic who doesn’t seemingly much like gay people – has always publicly claimed he is against abortion. Mr Joyce has refused to confirm or deny whether the young woman did undergo an abortion. At the time of our original investigation last year, we had also reported on long-running and credible claims that witnesses had seen a drunken and slovenly Mr Joyce ‘stalk’ and ‘chase’ a 17-year-old girl into a toilet during the 2012 Rural Women’s Awards. He was a 45 year-old senator representing the state of Queensland at the time. Mr Joyce had apparently already been warned about his behaviour after he allegedly “pinched the bottom” of a woman at the same event the year before, according to the Daily Telegraph.

        What an arse!

      • Well – you see, nobody told Barebacknaby that old adage that when your stock is starting to look sexy to you, it is time to head to go and see some people.

      • LOL, I love watching Governments implode… Bareback Barnaby, I mean seriously has he not heard of contraception? I guess he is Catholic so probably das ist verboten.

      • Q ; What Roots, Rorts and Leaves ?
        A ; The Deputy Prime Minister of Australia, soon to be Acting Prime Minister.

        This could be a great script for an afetrnoon TV soapie : The Ocker Tomatoe Beets Root.
        or; In the Barnyard with Barnaby

    • Jake GittesMEMBER

      The only angle not covered so far, something for the Mail to do from the women’s perspective perhaps, is why Barnaby’s girlfriend chose a fugly foolish man. If their hard hitting columnists can dig deep into the reasons it will help the rest of us understand.

  1. Alternatively, this whole sequence of events will become entertainment for the electorate and blow over in a week or so as the attention span of the press gallery and the population moves onto some supposedly more important.

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      Exactly. We’re going to hear about the rampant rogering for a few days and the absolute corruption will be swept away.

      I don’t care who is pantsing who. I want to see the corruption exposed.

      • proofreadersMEMBER

        +1 Meanwhile, Do-nothing is off on another play date – this time with the school bully, The Donald?

      • > I want to see the corruption exposed.

        I think we’re going to find out that pink-bits and corruption are synonyms

  2. adelaide_economistMEMBER

    I read a piece on Joyce on the weekend – might have been by Michelle Grattan – and I got to the end of it to find not a single mention of the most obvious issue with this whole thing (from a public angle, not that of his family). This whole creating jobs for his girlfriend thing got completely ignored.

    Creating a role that didn’t exist, just in time for Joyce’s girlfriend to move out of his office, and which wasn’t filled after she left it… um a little bit obvious. Sure we know this stuff goes on with all of them which is why politicians of all stripes weighed in with the solemn ‘it’s private’. Sorry folks, who you sleep with is private, not what you do with taxpayer dollars. Then again, this is Joyce who accepted years of wages that – by rights – he should have returned to the Commonwealth given his position was held unconstitutionally.

    Meanwhile the rest of us get to work in workplaces where the slightest misperception of an innocuous comment or a misplaced cabcharge would be grounds for being made unemployed and unhireable in the future. That’s what makes our pretend royalty so much more on the nose.

  3. This crap has zero relevance to anything or anyone, bar the participants and their families. Porking the help in the political game has been going on since time began …… but this is the level of the national attention span !
    Should be funny as he’ll though when they find out someone from one side is doing the fandango with another from the other side of the fence. Politicians ……… to stupid !

      • From that article:

        “The affair also resulted in Mr Joyce’s highly capable Chief of Staff, Diana Hallam, leaving her position in the office soon after the romance began but only after forcing Mr Joyce to at the very least informally tell the office of Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull about his relationship status. In return for her wider silence, Ms Hallam was then moved to the plum position of “general manager” of the Inland Rail infrastructure project.

        Incidentally, Mr Joyce so happens to be Ms Hallam’s boss again after he made himself Infrastructure Minister following his victory in the New England by-election late last year. There have been suggestions that Mr Joyce could potentially profit from the Inland Rail project after he bought largely unfarmable land in Gwabega for a low price but which could be sold for millions more if a railway is built and coal seam gas explorations are allowed.”

        This certainly deserves some follow up!

  4. “The latest poll of 1,026 respondents shows 72% of the sample would approve of forcing businesses to pass on a certain proportion of their tax cuts as pay rises for their workers, and the approval for that trade-off stretches across all voting groups, and across full-time and part-time workers”

    Not that I like company tax cuts, but this particular poll is silly. I support regulating free markets where appropriate (macro-prudential is a great example), but determining what level of money is to go back to workers should be based on supply and demand. Sure, capital is getting a good deal at the moment based on levels of profitability; however, when times are bad, we don’t do the reverse and say “workers aren’t allowed to get a pay rise at this point, because companies’ margins are suffering”.

    By doing this, we’re going to shift the entire workforce toward the broken model of the education sector, where people get a fixed pay rise regardless of the actual value they provide to the community – ultimately providing incentive to do the least amount possible to get your pay and go home.
    The AEU has screwed our schools enough, let’s not even entertain the thought of screwing the entire private sector.

    • Not that I like company tax cuts, but this particular poll is silly. I support regulating free markets where appropriate (macro-prudential is a great example), but determining what level of money is to go back to workers should be based on supply and demand. Sure, capital is getting a good deal at the moment based on levels of profitability; however, when times are bad, we don’t do the reverse and say “workers aren’t allowed to get a pay rise at this point, because companies’ margins are suffering”.

      So trickledown economics? We already know how much flows through to workers if the ‘market’ (read business) is allowed to determine wages… it’s how we’ve landed in a situation of simultaneous wage deflation and booming business profits.

      • By doing this, we’re going to shift the entire workforce toward the broken model of the education sector, where people get a fixed pay rise regardless of the actual value they provide to the community – ultimately providing incentive to do the least amount possible to get your pay and go home. The AEU has screwed our schools enough, let’s not even entertain the thought of screwing the entire private sector.

        Only people who have had absolutely zero experience in education think like this. Can you quote the proportion of classroom teachers that are on temporary contracts, with next to no longterm job security? Hint, it’s a substantial and growing number; disproportionately targeted at younger teachers.

        Has been a long time since the AEU (Vic) or Teachers Federation (NSW) have had any teeth. It is yet another sector sucked dry by boomers and left as an empty husk for subsequent generations.

      • @Brenton – the level of teachers on contract is high because conditions for permanent staff are ridiculously in favor the staff over the running of a school.
        That’d be because the school is required to maintain the employment of so many who want their positions held for seven years, or want continue on as part time employees. As a result, the school can’t guarantee the position of any graduate, so they put them on a 1 year contract.
        Arguing for further flexibility in work arrangements will simply lead to more contracts. You can’t expect the school to carry extra employees, all of them permanent, to cater to all the part time/on leave staff members now can you?

        BTW – I don’t agree that trickle down economics work. Only that you can’t take away the upside from capital, when they have to endure the downside.
        Longer term, if margins are too fat relative to capex, competitors will come in to bridge the gap. Mining and insurance are perfect examples of such cycles….

        “That’s because it already happens without needing to.”

        How so? When there’s more demand for labour than there is supply, what do you think happens? (Not that we have this situation at the moment – just that immigration is a better avenue to deal with this, rather than introducing regulation to mitigate the side effects of more migrants)

      • How so? When there’s more demand for labour than there is supply, what do you think happens? (Not that we have this situation at the moment – just that immigration is a better avenue to deal with this, rather than introducing regulation to mitigate the side effects of more migrants)

        I think you’ve answered your own question.

        We are unlikely to ever see a labour shortage again. On top of which, if business (genuinely) can’t pay its employees then it can’t pay its employees. Can’t get something from nothing.

        Capital has had it sweet for going on forty years now. How much more “upside” do they need ?

    • Sure, capital is getting a good deal at the moment based on levels of profitability; however, when times are bad, we don’t do the reverse and say “workers aren’t allowed to get a pay rise at this point, because companies’ margins are suffering”.

      That’s because it already happens without needing to.

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