We believe that the actual number is likely to come in south of 0.5%, taking year-ended growth below 2.4%.
We remain of the view that without timely rate cuts, house prices are on an L-shaped trajectory, meaning that consumption and employment growth could slow sharply, while residential and infrastructure investment flatten out.
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David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
