New Years resolution: Sell Bitcoin

Not having a good start to 2018 (I prefer 12018, let’s get the Holocene going!) for Bitcoin, with prices down more than 6% on the first day of trading. Having nearly reached $20,000 in mid-December, its now at $13,814 after almost cracking $13,000…

Chart from coinmarketcap.com:

Here’s Bloombergs take on first day of year trading, not that it means much:

The semi-long one year chart remains spectacular:

 

Meanwhile my favourite long term futures trader Peter L.Brandt shows the parabolic rise a bit clearer:

 

Its going to be an interesting 2018 – I’ve already had friends and family ask me over the Christmas break if they should buy Bitcoin. That’s not a good sign – FOMO advice at Christmas parties?

Latest posts by Chris Becker (see all)

Comments

    • I am telling everyone to buy altcoin, better than bitcoin. People want in, the demand and drive is to much to stop it. Now governments are taking about creating their on crypto currencies.

  1. Bitcoin and similar will develop further as it becomes a bigger part of the accepted market-exchanges. The resultant shorting possibilities may mean that volatility increases. However, I do believe that it will continue to be seen as an avenue of useful purposes.

    I will not short it though, given the political, financial and economic landscapes, including excessively overheated share and property markets into which some very interesting money had found found it’s way previously. There is always a home for that type of money and BTC was, and will remain, ideal in that regard.

  2. Whilst I’m no fan of bubblecoin, every time this site posts an article on it, the price soars!

    • Yep they’re particularly prescient, article No.381 (since Nov 2014) yesterday ALL negative and on que, BTC broke out of bear flag today on the up. Did everyone catch the MB fund eye watering 13% return that happily encourages punters to invest in every other bubble, except RE. Look fwd to seeing if they keep it above 10% over 2018.

  3. One of my net long/short sites has replaced their speccy AUD/USD with a ‘better’ speccy – BTC…. need to find another site that still covers AUD.

    A few broke & desperate housewives I know recently put their faith in friends who ‘know’ markets to invest in crypto for them – $2-5k seems about their average, but they’re really scraping to do it & haven’t even discussed MER’s or T&C’s with their new investment managers……..

  4. Pfft BitCoin is 2017 old hat, this year it’s all about BitCoin Cash and Ripple. Buy the Ripple!

  5. michael francis

    I was told to BTFD by a taxi driver wearing a Goldman Sachs T-Shirt.
    Tips don’t come much better than that.

    • #metoo.

      I am trying to make hay while the sun shines! No emotions, no long term vision, no fundamental basis – from my end.

      • I’m on team XRB but I have a chunk of XRP’s too.

        Mooning!

        Hanging on until a combined Market Cap of USD 10 Trillion. Let’s beat that dotcom bubble like a red headed stepchild!

        Already got mates looking to pump their super in! Encourage all speculators!

  6. #metoo Bought XRP under 1.00 which was great and I see 3.00 USD by year end (Not pumping I up!) XRP actually has a sound business case and may well replace SWIFT and is near VISA payments transaction Visa ~17,000 a second and XRP is up to ~13,000 and improving.

    Also, their going to start building their ecosystem this year as ETH has done which I see as a pure B2B opportunity … so many options.

    XRP = Go Long … still a crypto ride but one hell of a long-term return … ADA/ Cardano is also worth a look but is no where as mature and is even more speculative (Amazing the whole space is a major speculative shift!).

    Ripple trade stats:

    https://xrpcharts.ripple.com/

    Ripple Insights:

    https://ripple.com/insights/

    • I agree, I hold ripple, verge, cardano, bytecoin, siacoin, reddcoin and a few others. Verge has done really well for me, ripple has done well, the others are all cheap and people are pilling on. I want to see market cap hit 700b later this week.

  7. scottb1978MEMBER

    #metoo I started with a small amount and as I make gains I reinvest in other early stage high potential cryptos. Minimal downside without missing out.

  8. Hate to get geeky but this does not follow a parabolic curve, it follows an exponential curve.
    It has already broken downside, so I think this analysis is gone and you have to look to other patterns to see where this is going.

  9. Anything on blockchain is doomed. It’s so clunky it’s virtually useless for handling large scale transactions — and the energy consumption is off the dial.

    Hashgraph looks to be the way forward …. all these ‘coins’ at the vanguard of the crypto movement are in big danger

    • I agree, like Australian housing there is no doubt this is bubble acrtivity. But after watching the Australian Housing Pump for 10+ years and finally buying my home 4 years ago I’m happy.

      I’m happy to play in this new space and risk losses for gains as the whole world is pilling in.

      Yes, the market will correct (One day housing here will as well .. when that is? Feck knows!) but for now I’m buying low and sell high. (Except XRP I will HODL for years)

      I’m a plankton in value compared to the big whales in this space but I think there’s early opportunity so I will flip, draw out principal over time and play with the Casino’s money.

      #happydays

      #bubbleyesfoolno

  10. Oh BTC is so volatile. However the sp500 futures is so much more sensible. Nevertheless this huge run up has damaged the case for BTC as a medium of exchange for general usage and the congestion is something noone considered several years ago. Ripple does seem to have both a business case and ability to handle transaction volume.

  11. For those that are trading BTC, I’m finding Ichimoku clouds are now fairly effective. Nothing was useful during the runup because it was an exceptional market, but it is starting to behave more normally now. I’ve used them on 1 day and 1 hour charts effectively, and 15 minute for picking turning points. Some of the classic candlestick patterns still don’t seem to work here.
    Some time ago I recommended Coinjar, but they run a massive arbitrage position, so I’m now in a position where I can’t recommend any exchange.

  12. Hi Chris,

    Overnight I expected BTC to rise, it has very nicely, now in the midst of an arbitrage move. As soon as my transfer completes to my Aussie Exchange for a sweet incrematal rise and a shift of my funds that I wanted anyhoo.

    This pays for my transfer, allows a nice return on the change between the exchanges and then I can buy the currency I wanted at a gain with no transaction fees as it was all paid for by the gains! 😉

    Also, as your team pointed out: Don’t underestimate the shadow money in Asia and new ‘normies’ coming into the BTC space this year … it will go bang but just not quite yet!

    https://imgur.com/a/sHp4P

  13. Like I said buy XRP/ Ripple … also Arrington locked in his 100M hedge fund last night. I’m sure Amazon will sign-up publicly soon and there are a few other sleepers that will see the light of day soon. Right now, it’s trading at 3.99 AUD (BTCMarkets.net) This is the wild-wild-west and it’s just like 24 years ago. GLTA.