How much “skilled” immigration is enough already?

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By Leith van Onselen

A reported titled “Australia 2030: Prosperity through Innovation” will be released by Innovation Science Australia today, which reportedly will recommend Australia boost its skilled migration program. From SBS:

A more open immigration system and a push to prioritise maths and science teaching are part of a new innovation plan handed to the Turnbull government…

SOME KEY POINTS OF THE 2030 PLAN:

* raising the bar across the entire eduction system;
* encouraging business to increase investment in research and development to create “high-growth firms exporting innovative goods and services” to the world; and
* an open immigration system that would allow the recruitment of the brightest minds and talents.

The first thought that sprung to mind when reading this was: “Isn’t Australia already open enough to skilled migrants?”.

Just look at Australia’s permanent migration program, which shows that “skilled” immigration has surged from around 35,000 at the turn of the century to nearly 130,000 currently:

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To this you can add the flood of “skilled” temporary migrants via the government’s 457 visa program.

Has the flood of skilled migrants made Australia more productive? The evidence is scant. GDP per capita growth has collapsed as skilled migration has exploded:

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Whereas the migrant flood into Sydney and Melbourne:

Has blown-out the trade deficit as more people (consumers) buy imports (think flat screen TVs and imported cars) without boosting exports:

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Then there’s the problems around housing, infrastructure and livability in Sydney and Melbourne, which have become crush-loaded by the people flood.

How would opening the immigration floodgates even further improve, rather than worsen, the situation?

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15 years on from opening the skilled immigration floodgates we are still waiting for the promised innovation to kick in.

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.