Links 28 December, 2017

Australian Beach Pattern, Charles Meere, 1940, Art Gallery of NSW

 

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…and furthermore…

Comments

  1. Re: ALP and casuals

    people cannot live indefinitely in work that’s so precarious.

    Then give UBI to Aussies who do not have a permanent job. Duh.

    The immigration rate is 245,000/year! That is the problem right there.

    India putting a 30% import tax on Aussie lentils? Put a 30% import tax on “skilled” immigrants.

    • Its the same whenever I see people advocating UBI. Which is it, automation and AI will eliminate most jobs, or we need immigrants and refugees to do the jobs that natives don’t want to do?

      If you believe in the need for UBI, wouldn’t the first logical thing to do to cut all unskilled immigration, and perhaps even restrict immigration overall to only citizens from other highly developed nations?

      • One would think decades of stagnate wages precludes immigration being the cornerstone or driver of lost earnings, regardless of views on supply and demand holding true in all cases.

        Inflation paranoia seems a more likely candidate, but, after decades of that fear based meme they can’t even get a whiff of it when wanted.

        disheveled…. Not to mention how does a UBI actually spur socially productive activity, buying stuff from Amazon – ????

      • Socially productive activity?

        What you mean like the private banking sector goosing residential housing assets?

        Yep that role of private banks in the monetary system is a real truffle machine.

      • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

        The per capita rate was not as high for most of the past Skip,…but yes it’s not the only issue causing Working class stagnation in our country, but it’s still a big contributing factor.
        I think the intake should be halved and a more democratic way of setting the the number be applied.
        How do you think the number be set Skip?

      • UBI is just a fancy name for welfare for more people.

        Welfare should be for those whose who are unable to earn an income. The idea that we are about to run out of useful things to do that require human input is just a colossal load of BS.

        In Japan they have an unemployment rate of 2.4% and are one of the leading users of robots. They also have well kept parks, well maintained public assets etc

        Why?

        Because they actually pay people to maintain them….though plenty of retirees do civic tasks on a volunteer basis.

        The idea that we are about to run out of things to do that require human input is just idiotic.

        So why does anyone talk about a UBI?

        Because the private bank crowd love having their paws all over the public power over money and they can’t think of any other way of getting money into the hands of their debt serfs that does not involve debt.

        In other words UBI is just a part of the private banker (and their useful idiot minions) wet dream for the future.

        QE for Debtors.

        https://theglass-pyramid.com/2015/05/23/bank-watch-qe-for-debtors-is-coming/

        Now you will hear some cultists claim that sovereign governments are not restricted in their ability to exercise fiscal powers by the credit creation by private banks.

        LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL.

        Anyone who can read knows very well that the key to deregulating and expanding the dominance of private banks inherently involves convincing the public that the public sector should always run a balanced budget – i.e. do not use the fiscal power.

        Some useful idiots are so brain washed they even recommend that rather than have government exercise fiscal power it would be better if independent central bankers make the decision on what infrastructure projects to fund.

      • Funny.

        Iran has UBI and Iranians did not quit their jobs.

        So UBI is a great way to combat inequality. Inequality is soaring in AUS, USA, Britain, and many other places.

        Heck, a rich prick called MikeBT rants against UBI because it will make him feel less rich! Not poor. But simply not as rich he feels now when he sees ads for Foodbank:

        A universal basic income would just diminish the buying power of everyone who earns more than the UBI.

        For example – previously three people earning $10k (dole), $60k (median income), and $150k (top 5-10th percentile)
        After tax that comes out to $10k, $50k and $110k
        Ratios are 1:5:11

        If we give everyone an extra $20k gross per year (and we take the dole off the first guy) their gross incomes become
        $20k, $80k, $170k
        After tax incomes become
        $20k, $65k, $120k

        Ratio becomes 4:13:24
        Whereas previously the high income earner was earning 2.2x the median, now he is earning 1.8x

        https://forums.whirlpool.net.au/archive/2190084#r50158743

        Brilliant. The Greens should do the opposite of what rich pricks want. Rich pricks rant against any proposal to cut negative gearing – so do the opposite. Rich pricks (including MikeBT) rant against any proposal to put a big tax on work visas. Again, do the opposite.

        Rich pricks rant against the luxury car tax. So increase the luxury car tax to 50%! And expand the LCT to include yachts.

      • Don’t waste your time Skippy. Been making this point on immigration all year. Goes nowhere.
        The population growth scare plays out well with the gallery.
        Immigration has an indeterminate effect on wages. Could be positive, could be negative. Depends which shifts further labour demand or labour supply.
        The line on here is that labour demand doesn’t move, even when there is a increase in immigrants (consumers/income). It just doesn’t move, wages just fall. Despite all evidence to the contrary – eg. UK v Germany post GFC.
        I call it the Aldi theory of immigration. Immigrants compete with local workers for a fixed number of consumers… even when the new immigrants are consumers as well.
        Meanwhile 37 years of inflation paranoia manifested in a deliberate policy to create unemployment during all stages of the business cycle, precisely to hold down wages, and 4 decades of union bashing isn’t responsible..
        Because the libertarians don’t like inflation and they don’t like unions.. because.. because they are bad.

      • Sweeper,

        Goodness could it be that you, Skip and I are on the same page with regard to immigration?

        Immigration certainly lifts demand for labour and that means that immigrants generate jobs and need jobs.

        So a bigger more productive Australian population is not an impossibility. Which is why I am not opposed to a growing population in principle.

        But a bit more sophistication is required and your response was lacking in that department….but then why bother I suppose?

        The important issue is what labour demand is immigration actually generating in Australia and what jobs are immigrants actually obtaining on arrival.

        With industries that export (outside of the quarry businesses) or compete with imports closing down as our bubbly AUD keeps on bubbling on unproductive capital inflows much of the immigration driven demand for labour appears to be concentrated in financial services and import consumption.

        Even when we do build new economic capacity most of it is not much more than cheaply built housing for the new waves of consumers and workers for the parasite sectors of the economy or infrastructure to ferry the extra bodies around.

        As I noted above – this private bank / household debt driven model is a superb truffle making machine.

      • EP…

        Sorry but casual observations are not really relevant, especially when the causation can be traced back decades before e.g. productivity and wages diverging. From an informed economic perspective vs the theocratic economics, supply has little to do with price, price is largely administered and not subject to so called binary [supply and demand] price discovery. I’ve posted a wee bit on this wrt Rothbardian, DSGE or its base model of late.

        Suggest you familiarize yourself with it.

        disheveled… sorry chum but regrettably heaps of stuff is actually counter intuitive i.e. environmental biases.

      • @Sweeper…

        Yeah it is heaps easier to play pin the tail on the new a-whole, not that everyone else is a byproduct at some point in time. Then we get the rabid monetarists banging on about quasi definitions wrt to money types which inevitably lead right back to inflation mongering, yet couch it in mind numbing moralistic ideology – barf~~~~

        disheveled… I guess the only thing worse is libertarians talking about democracy….

      • 007 is definitely an inflationista.
        … who also dislikes creditors.. because.. Jesus did… allegedly..

      • Sweeper,

        …and Ben Chifley.

        Inflationista?

        That unsound money stuff is the speciality of you private banking pom pom twirlers. A bit of inflation helps all that private bank credit easier to digest.

        You guys are in a bit of quandry though. Too much of good thing. Not enough trickle down to keep the Banker’s Pseudo Fiat show on the road.

        So you and Skippy dont like fiscal direct to the pockets on main street?

        I suppose you dont like fiscal spend as tax cuts either.

        So what productive projects from central planning do you have in mind – guns, butter or just a lot more well cladded high rise packed to the gills with happy consumers of private banker debt products?

      • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

        “Sorry but casual observations are not really relevant,”

        What about the casual observations of the majority of the Electorate in our Democracy Skip?
        Their lived experience.
        Should that have any weight?

        You’ve avoided my Question,…again I believe,…as I’ve asked you this Question before,…How should our Immigration intake be decided?
        Who should decide?
        Big Business and Elected governments (Electrol dictatorships) behind closed doors?
        Should the citizens of this country have no say on the matter, in your view.?

        You clearly believe other Economic factors share a greater responsibility for the declining security and living standards of most Australians,….I believe this too and agree with pretty much all the positions you
        seem to hold,…I admire your work here greatly and follow all your arguments, posts and links.

        But I’m disappointed with your refusal to state your position on how/who should set immigration numbers,…do you feel this topic beneath you?
        Did/ Do you feel the same about the much celebrated Gay marriage vote?

        What’s your position on Democracy,…do you think the plebs to incompetent to be given a seat at the decision making table?
        Do you think an EU style of undemocratic technocracy a better model? for OUR Country.
        I would sincerely like to know.

        Finally, in your opinion, is Chomsky just pulling himself here, or is something more profound being stated,

        https://youtu.be/ljaXy1t0I44

      • Ermo,

        “..What’s your position on Democracy,…do you think the plebs to incompetent to be given a seat at the decision making table?. Do you think an EU style of undemocratic technocracy a better model? for OUR Country…”

        Surely those are rhetorical questions.

        Skippy sees libertarians under every bed because that is what something messy like democracy looks like to fans of technocratic systems of control.

        Skippy supports the current ‘independent’ of government monetary model for a reason.

      • pfft, banks and the bondholder class hate the idea of high inflation. Always have done.
        And so do you.
        See when it comes down to it, despite all the anti bank camouflage, you are the perfect ambassador for the creditor class.
        Preserve private ownership of banks. And preserve the real returns of the bondholder through low inflation/deflation.
        Yet you claim Chifley?
        In reality your position is pure Friedman. ie. deflation to guarantee a real return for the bondholder. Because inflation is bad.

      • Sweeper,

        You are really scratching around for a life jacket now.

        When it comes to what the wealthy prefer it is your private banking model and its built in debt deflation reactor.

        That is why your independent Central Banks target inflation. To try to counteract the poison of private banking on the political economy. But the monetary policy obsession has made a mess of even that band-aid.

        Ask your average working family …..as against debt serf/asset price punter…whether they prefer stable or rising prices and you will get your answers.

        Describing price stability as Friedmanite is EXACTLY what I was talking about.

        Loopy FIRE sector private bank enthusiasts redefining the universe.

        Preserve private banks?

        Not as banks though…..as investment companies.

      • oo7…

        What part about central banks becoming staffed with monetarists and now quasi monetarists is confusing. Not to mention the dominate economic advisors to the political class during the period in question. None of this has anything to do with your perspective [religious views] about public vs. private money creation.

        All these sorts are beholden to the creditor class, hence your beliefs about undemocratic administration of government money is as sweeper notes e.g. a wet dream for the creditor class. You just can’t seem to wrap your head around the drivers during this period because of your fixation on money crankery and the utopian ideological vision attached to it.

        This is in complete denial of the histrionics.

        Say the inflation in RE prices being solely due to credit creation, when its actual starting point came with the Developer Lobby in the 50s, which then was compounded by the economic libertarians under neoliberalism’s banner becoming dominate in the 70s. Everything else is just a reflection of that, taxes, government spending, FIRE sector, market driven preferences wrt labour and environmental reg arb, corruption and increasing social dysfunction, et al. Yet you some how condense all that agency into money crankery in complete denial that both legacy parties are beholden to the Washington Consensus or Third Way, tho still suggest that the solution is your camps administration.

        This is as wonky as claiming demons caused it all with money replacing pigs in antiquity.

        Here try something a bit more reality based.

        The Chickenshit Club: Why the Justice Department Fails to Prosecute Executives –
        by Jesse Eisinger

        From Pulitzer Prize–winning journalist Jesse Eisinger, “a fast moving, fly-on-the-wall, disheartening look at the deterioration of the Justice Department and the Securities and Exchange Commission…It is a book of superheroes” (San Franscisco Review of Books).

        Why were no bankers put in prison after the financial crisis of 2008? Why do CEOs seem to commit wrongdoing with impunity? The problem goes beyond banks deemed “Too Big to Fail” to almost every large corporation in America—to pharmaceutical companies and auto manufacturers and beyond. The Chickenshit Club—an inside reference to prosecutors too scared of failure and too daunted by legal impediments to do their jobs—explains why in “an absorbing financial history, a monumental work of journalism…a first-rate study of the federal bureaucracy” (Bloomberg Businessweek).

        Jesse Eisigner begins the story in the 1970s, when the government pioneered the notion that top corporate executives, not just seedy crooks, could commit heinous crimes and go to prison. He brings us to trading desks on Wall Street, to corporate boardrooms and the offices of prosecutors and FBI agents. These revealing looks provide context for the evolution of the Justice Department’s approach to pursuing corporate criminals through the early 2000s and into the Justice Department’s approach to pursuing corporate criminals through the early 2000s and into the Justice Department of today, including the prosecutorial fiascos, corporate lobbying, trial losses, and culture shifts that have stripped the government of the will and ability to prosecute top corporate executives.

        https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/34397551-the-chickenshit-club

        disheveled… really can’t find any casual or otherwise relationship wrt your money crankery and the information provided above oo7…. the assumptions, leaps of logical deduction and their respondent logical fallacies are just too massive…

      • Here try something a bit more reality based.

        The Chickenshit Club: Why the Justice Department Fails to Prosecute Executives –
        by Jesse Eisinger

        From Pulitzer Prize–winning journalist Jesse Eisinger, “a fast moving, fly-on-the-wall, disheartening look at the deterioration of the Justice Department and the Securities and Exchange Commission…It is a book of superheroes” (San Franscisco Review of Books).

        Why were no bankers put in prison after the financial crisis of 2008? Why do CEOs seem to commit wrongdoing with impunity? The problem goes beyond banks deemed “Too Big to Fail” to almost every large corporation in America—to pharmaceutical companies and auto manufacturers and beyond. The Chickenshit Club—an inside reference to prosecutors too scared of failure and too daunted by legal impediments to do their jobs—explains why in “an absorbing financial history, a monumental work of journalism…a first-rate study of the federal bureaucracy” (Bloomberg Businessweek).

        Jesse Eisigner begins the story in the 1970s, when the government pioneered the notion that top corporate executives, not just seedy crooks, could commit heinous crimes and go to prison. He brings us to trading desks on Wall Street, to corporate boardrooms and the offices of prosecutors and FBI agents. These revealing looks provide context for the evolution of the Justice Department’s approach to pursuing corporate criminals through the early 2000s and into the Justice Department’s approach to pursuing corporate criminals through the early 2000s and into the Justice Department of today, including the prosecutorial fiascos, corporate lobbying, trial losses, and culture shifts that have stripped the government of the will and ability to prosecute top corporate executives.

        https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/34397551-the-chickenshit-club

      • Skippy,

        When you talk about “monetarists” in Central Banks that is a huge give away.

        You talk as though monetarism did not die out in the early 1980s.

        Not even the monetarists are monetarists any more. No one …. repeat no one…. is trying to run the economy by reference to money supply measures.

        What is about inflation targeting that you don’t understand? A lot it would seem.

        Central banks don’t give a damn about money supply measures provided their stats on inflation are within ‘parameters’.

        Which suits private banker spruikers like you and Sweeper as you guys love asset inflation as that makes your small town republican buddies happy and keeps them on side.

        That asset price pumping with bank credit does not produce much CPI inflation is not surprising as the trickle down effect from the wealth effect never worked very well.

        So all is hunky dory for private bank spruikers like you and Sweeper.

        Keep on making the right people rich with rising asset prices goosed with private bank credit – while CPI inflation is in a coma the show can go on and on and on..

        But keep talking about monetarism.

        It is very amusing albeit a weak attempt at obfuscation and diversion.

        Keep in mind that it is you and Sweeper who keep wading in day after day to defend the private banking systems role in the monetary system.

        A proven failure when working exactly as intended.

        And all you can do is to make excuses, look for bad apples and claim that “society is to blame”.

        The first and worst privatization was the privatization of the public power over public money.

        But poor old Skippy just can’t bear to let go of his ‘banker buddies’.

      • oo7…

        “When you talk about “monetarists” in Central Banks that is a huge give away.

        You talk as though monetarism did not die out in the early 1980s.

        Not even the monetarists are monetarists any more. No one …. repeat no one…. is trying to run the economy by reference to money supply measures.”

      • oo7…

        “When you talk about “monetarists” in Central Banks that is a huge give away.

        You talk as though monetarism did not die out in the early 1980s.

        Not even the monetarists are monetarists any more. No one …. repeat no one…. is trying to run the economy by reference to money supply measures.”

        Duh… I was pointing out the relevancy during the time period in question about money views. Yes the Monetarists were superseded by the quasi monetarists, mostly neo/new Keynesian’s of the American verity which are more akin to neoclassical’s [theoclassical’s] because they are still beholden to IS-LM, with the Taylor bolt on. Your drama is confusing me bringing it up as some sort of impairment on my behalf and spinning it.

        “Which suits private banker spruikers like you and Sweeper as you guys love asset inflation as that makes your small town republican buddies happy and keeps them on side.”

        I’m rabidly anti equity asset inflation via stock by backs et al, but I have all ready – splained – that to you more than once, don’t think its a reading comprehension problem, more like rhetorical games per usual. BTW on that note how could you mangle my opinion on neoliberalism aka the duopoly of both the republicans [free market w/ a side of religion] and democrats [blue dog corporatists] eg. Washington Consensus or Third Way as being pro either.

        In addition how could I be pro bankster when I was originally pro the Swedish solution, side with Bill Black, supported the Occupy Wall St camp.

        “The first and worst privatization was the privatization of the public power over public money.”

        Incoherent w/ a side of categorical error. The Government has not privatized its legal power over HPM money creation, government still spends first, sets the price and the market deals in quantity. Now if you take issue with some of the hangovers from the gold standard, don’t blame the MMT camp, that has more to do with what Sweeper was pointing out just up thread.

        disheveled…. thanks for the non response to the information put under your nose, again, and again it seems….

      • 007,

        Monetarism in the sense of money supply targeting and Friedman’s K percent rule failed spectactuarly in the early 80’s however many of the underlying principles lived on and were adopted by the new-Keynesians. The two biggest being:
        1. Friedman’s core belief that the CB should only target nominal not real variables.
        Old school monetarists said the nominal target should be the money supply, new Keynesians say it should be inflation. Both are nominal targets. But targeting real variables like output or unemployment is still considered out of the question.
        2. Belief that only the CB should manage aggregate demand through adjustments in the money supply, not the Treasury through adjustments in the qty of bonds.
        Friedman maintained the Treasury should *never* try and manage aggregate demand, only the CB should do it and they should do it my adjusting the money supply (preferably via an algorithm at the CB). And this is the case in all scenarios even liquidity trap.
        the new Keynesians more or less agree, with a difference in emphasis being that the intermediate target or instrument should be adjustments in interest rates, and in a liquidity trap the Treasury may be given some scope to manage aggregate demand.
        So a lot of the detritus lives on unfortunately.
        And clearly infects your thinking as well. eg.:
        “Ask your average working family …..as against debt serf/asset price punter…whether they prefer stable or rising prices and you will get your answers”

        Why don’t you ask the average working family whether they would prefer their nominal household income to grow at 4% with inflation and still keep a job and be no worse off in real terms or grow at 0% in nominal terms and lose their job and their savings?
        Because… because inflation is bad. Just ask the soon to be out of working family!

        “Which suits private banker spruikers like you and Sweeper as you guys love asset inflation as that makes your small town republican buddies happy and keeps them on side”.

        Barely deserves a response. As usual you haven’t provided a shred of evidence.

      • @sweeper…

        “(preferably via an algorithm at the CB)” – sheeeeeeeeeeaaat – I almost blew a wad at my screen that would belittle oo7’s avatar…

        I mean who’s to say what wankery is uberpinning that algo, but, we cannot question the validity cause “Science” for profit. That’s not to say oo7 intent is not well meaning, same as Brown, Musgrave, et al, its just the superstitious base line that screws up all the optics, shades of the US Congressional stenographer going pop.

        disheveled… if oo7 has such a hard on about inflation one would think he would reconcile equity flows…. and what enabled all that…

      • “That’s not to say oo7 intent is not well meaning, same as Brown, Musgrave, et al”

        There should be a reverse statute of limitations on this.
        If after 3 years 007 is still repeating this stuff (without evidence or adequate counter-argument rebuttal), questioning his motives should be fair game.
        He isn’t exactly painstaking in questioning mine. “Banker spruiker, bank apologist” etc. etc.
        Even though he doesn’t have a shred of evidence.

      • @sweeper///

        Yeah… I feel you…

        Look pre and post GFC Philip and Co, plus myself, used to troll the AET, where neoclassical were given a wee bit more respect, yet here we are.

        disheveled… that is the actual conundrum, like it or not…..

      • If after 3 years 007 is still repeating this stuff (without evidence or adequate counter-argument rebuttal), questioning his motives should be fair game.
        He isn’t exactly painstaking in questioning mine. “Banker spruiker, bank apologist” etc. etc.
        Even though he doesn’t have a shred of evidence.

        As someone who has been watching these back and forth discussions for that long, my observation is that pfh007 does a lot more refuting of your points and clear explaining of his –
        with evidence – than either of you, both of whom seem to rely almost entirely on ad hominem, non-sequiturs and straw men.

        FWIW.

      • By misrepresenting Chifley’s views on private control of banking?
        Or pretending Jesus was a revolutionary socialist committed to punishing the creditor class?
        Or that there is some link between deposit creation and credit growth (despite evidence acknowledged by 007)?
        Or pretending non-banks haven’t been the epicentre of reckless credit build-up globally post deregulation?
        Pretending bank money is a perfect substitute for state money?
        Advocating free banking then railing against ‘private fiat’?
        Or that 0% inflation is good for working people?
        That bankers prefer high inflation? Despite centuries of evidence that they prefer deflation?

        Most of all.. that there is a technical apolitical fix to a political problem?

        I seem to remember you parroting the developer line of Phil and Pavletich Smithy, so apologies if I query your judgement here.
        But I’m going to take your comment on this with a container ship load of salt.

      • By calling us bank apologists, banker spruikers?

        That started fairly recently, after a consistent and ongoing refusal to address relevant points. And it always goes hand in hand with actual real points.

        Look, I’m happy to admit I don’t know enough about these topics to argue the details about them, even if I wanted to, and I have no ideological bent either way. I’m interested in the outcomes, not the mechanical semantics.

        My observation is simply that one person in the discussion is putting a lot more effort into making themselves and their points understood – and most importantly, understood by someone who isn’t already an expert – and relate them back to the real world in a (relatively) polite and constructive fashion, than the others.

        Or to put it in simpler terms, you may very well be right, but you’re not even close to convincing me you are. Attacking me does not improve that situation.

        Your last post is a demonstration of what I’m talking about. Plenty of straw men and non-sequiturs in there.

        Are you trying to help people understand, discuss ways things could be improved, or do you just want to argue ?

      • @drsmithy…

        Maybe its a result of disingenuous rhetorical ploys or emotive special pleas after bit.

        Case in point. I just linked to ‘The Chickenshit Club: Why the Justice Department Fails to Prosecute Executives –
        by Jesse Eisinger’ so here is a epic unpacking of the sort of agency behind what really occurred, by a guy with more that just a bit of veracity, and oo7 does not even blink. Instead he just keeps banging his one drum, banks did it, all human woe is the result of banks. As sweeper notes, non bank credit creation is manifold that of traditional banking, that’s not to say traditional banking is in need reform or that customers need more protection – rights, see Warren.

        Then calling sweeper and myself small town republicans is just ludicrous, especially since I’m pro democratic administration, anti privatizing all the commons or common goods such as education and health care. Then affiliations with mobs like EPI [economic policy institute] or TJN [tax justice network] et al. This is information that oo7 is aware of yet some how contorts into the aforementioned, not a good look wrt cognitive ability imo.

        As I’ve pointed out many times wages and productivity diverged decades ago, hence immigration, money crankery, or most of the other pet theory’s premised on supply and demand cannot be attributed to it. That distinction has more to do with Reaganomics – Rubinomics and the ideology that underpins it.

        Don’t even know what to say about your opinions on evaluating T or F when confessed ignorance is its baseline or feelings about others narrative is the determinate.

        disheveled…. that oo7 thinks hes on a mission from dawg is just more wonky bias infecting everything else observed…


      • disheveled…. that oo7 thinks hes on a mission from dawg is just more wonky bias infecting everything else observed…

        That would be a prime example of what I’m talking about.

      • Smithy,

        You said:
        “my observation is that pfh007 does a lot more refuting of your points and clear explaining of his –
        with evidence”

        I then listed some of 007’s main points none of which are supported by evidence, all of which have been refuted.
        All of which have been made to sell his message and not to illuminate reality.

        Explain to me how a direct and to the point response to your “observation” which lists 007 points, is providing straw men and non-sequiturs?

        I don’t care about presentation tbh. Focus on presentation usually means something is being sold. Reality is always a tough sell. Maybe you’d prefer an over-polished English essay style format. I’ll take your point if thats really the point you are making. But don’t pretend your complaint with presentation gets close to being an assessment of the arguments. Unless you want to wade into the arguments yourself, without the flippant handwaving.

      • smithy….

        Its based on his own statements, hence not a non sequitur, tho you seem fine with Agnotology as long as its couched in your preferred rhetorical prose. Not to mention over the years I have provided vastly more information from a much more broad introspection w/ data to support.

        To date oo7 only utilizes his core axiom and then seeks any information that might support that, in a pinch he will use others views or opinions out of context. That you don’t acknowledge or understand his core economic views are classic AET dogma is not relevant. Example, he read a book a friend of mine from LSE wrote and the best he could reply was it had some interesting thoughts on Marginalism. That’s it. This is full understanding that it is one of the core features of neoliberal economic thinking, not that it was dealt a mortal blow in the Cambridge controversy or anything. The dominate at the time just decided to stick to their guns regardless, which brings us back to the failed notion that markets clear, ref Bill Black link of late and the models used to support being based on a failed premise.

        But as sweeper says… oo7 has this thing about non political interference in political reality, because he confuses markets with freedom. This is were economics for some becomes theoclassical, like DSGE models, more wonky information filtered through more optic bolt-ons does nothing to rectify the fundamental flaws in the underlining axioms used. I would also point out sweepers comment up thread about inflation hysteria and its foundations wrt AET.

        oo7 likes to play cute when it suits him, as well as sledge, so I have no idea where your coming smithy. Do you have anything to substantiate your position wrt oo7 or the economic topic on hand and if not why do you bother to comment. So far its just been spurious conjecture, some inaccurate claims about rhetorical faux pas.

        Disheveled… As far as I can tell all your saying is you accept oo7 narrative on face value due to his story telling style, without any due diligence on your part.

    • it would be so easy to be casual worker if mortgages were not $50k per year
      It’s rent seeking that is killing us not immigration – immigration is just making our commutes and waiting lines longer

    • India putting a 30% import tax on Aussie lentils? Put a 30% import tax on “skilled” immigrants.

      If lentils were on par with immigrants… but the point would be quite valid if it wasn’t for a tiny titillating tidbit that .gov.in is *not* seeking to get lentils from abroad and .gov.au is actively seeking, inviting and soliciting immigrants from abroad.

      • There are 64,000 known illegals in Australia now. Not even the fake right wing wants them here. But hey, working here for $10/hour sure beats living in a 3rd world slum.

        There is a lot of red tape around tourist visas because there is a danger that 3rd world males on tourist visas come here to work for $10/hour. After all, 3rd world males on student visas work for illegal wages here.

        Stealing wages from a foreign worker should mean jail. But you defend wage theft.

        Funny you should say that lentils are not humans. I agree – the EU should not insist that free trade in lentils must come with free trade in humans.

      • Jacob,

        how did your response addressed my response that the difference is (to India and lentils) that AUS gov **invites** people on a red carpet to come and steal your job?

        Proposition that 64k illegals are all working and stealing jobs has no foundation and it is a trivial number to the 200k per year legal immigrants whom were all invited and were selected (somehow).

        “There is a lot of red tape around tourist visas because there is a danger that 3rd world males on tourist visas come here to work for $10/hour. After all, 3rd world males on student visas work for illegal wages here. “

        And when the existing law is allowed to be abused (because little or nothing is done to plug the holes or to enforce it), blame whom?
        This, previous and the next gov’t of Aus *want* excessive immigration and little you or me or anyone can do.

        “But you defend wage theft.

        Funny you should say that lentils are not humans.”

        Neither is true but rather a projection.

      • Proposition that 64k illegals are all working and stealing jobs has no foundation

        Proposition that I voted for her has no foundation. Were you in the polling booth with me? What proof have you got that I voted for her?

        Just to prove you wrong again: https://au.news.yahoo.com/world/a/36043358/australian-illegal-immigrants-exceed-64-000-figures-show/

        All of them are working illegally – unless they are rorting Centrelink as well.


        This, previous and the next gov’t of Aus *want* excessive immigration and little you or me or anyone can do.

        But you defend illegal-wage immigration all the time on this website. You are the number one cheerleader now for wage theft on this website these days.

      • Jakob,

        did you read the link you provided past the title?
        from your link:
        “…and as many 20,000 illegal residents [of the 64k illegals] are thought to be working.”
        and I said “Proposition that 64k illegals are all working and stealing jobs has no foundation”
        Thank you for proving me right.
        Not only that illegal immigrants are not all working but they are a tiny fraction of the scores of people that arrive here legally every year. My point, to remind, is that _illegal_ immigrants are of insignificance in the bigger picture.

        Claim that Centrelink is paying illegal residents is… LOL l, I’d *really* like to know how would illegals trick CL and would they risk being caught by AFP.

        But you defend illegal-wage immigration all the time on this website.
        Proposition that I voted for her has no foundation.

        Pants on fire?

    • Yup, immigration plus UBI is incompatible, if not downright absurd.

      Who pays in the end? The middle classes. When you print money to pay your bills, which is what will necessarily happen to maintain the welfare system, all you are doing is imposing a further tax on the working/middle classes whose meagre savings are raided, under cover of darkness, through the dilution of purchasing power.

      • Dominic, not if the savings are in bitcoins or gold coins.

        How is negative gearing funded? How are the 12 submarines funded? How are the tunnels, required by mass immigration, funded?

        The only good thing the LNP did is extend the time it takes to convert a 3rd world passport into Aussie passport.

  2. Those dollar funding problems weren’t just people playing games with their US Treasury collateral and losing them……starting to look more real…..sucks to be an overextended Chinese conglomerate.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-12-27/unexpected-outcome-trumps-tax-cuts-have-led-buyers-strike-us-treasuries

    Long term US Treasuries on a tear….how can there be a policy mistake when the world works on wishful thinking and infinite credit ?

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-12-27/treasury-yield-curve-crashing-most-brexit

  3. G Excellent choice in art.
    How about that Syd Hob race record.
    Everything is just going faster and faster, cept the economy.
    maybe we need some fair dinkum skippers to manage the ship.

    • How about some economic settings that are aimed at a productive economy rather than faster and faster boats for Audi dealerships?

      • Fl there are no economic settings that can make the economy more productive.
        in the face of international competition, we have fallen so far behind that we cant recover, not in our generation nor in the generation of the younger readers,
        Life has hit a whole new paradigm for advanced economies where feudalism is introduced, but get this, at the will of the punters.
        No one forced debt on anybody,
        No one forced whole generations to goof off in the face of having a go.
        Who let all the immigrants in??
        People saying the economy will save us reminds me of the ole aviation adage about many twin engined aeroplanes,
        If you have an engine out, the good engine just takes to wherever you are going to crash.
        Those kids trashing St KIlda beach is a sure sign we have an engine out.

      • Innovation is widely viewed as the engine of economic growth AKA productivity
        As a result, many policies have been proposed to spur innovation; investments in STEM (science, technology, engineering, and mathematics) education, handouts and tax cuts.
        To date the policies have failed,.So start at the start:
        • who are inventors
        • where do they come from
        • Which factors induce people to become innovators inventors?
        • what are their benefits
        • What can we learn from their experiences
        • Are black people and women failures as inventors?? Why.
        • what policies can be most effective in increasing innovation ergo producitivity
        • What happens if we fail to keep producing innovations lifting productivity.

      • @WW Re: inventors and innovation

        I am sure you’re seeing this the same way I do: Innovation and Invention are mere consequences of knowing how to do things. You can’t “invent” your way out of a “black hole”… To me – this is akin to asking a tribe of amazon aborigines to get cracking inventing more efficient solar panels: they don’t know what electricity is, much less how it applies to daily life, and even less likely they know what the physics behind the PV effect is…

        To come back to us – we’ve p*ssed however little advantages we had against the wall in the name of “services economy”. We produce FA, so as a consequence: a). we know less and less about what needs to be done, b). we have even less incentive to even come up with something new/innovative

        This is why I see all this “invention and innovation” as pure, unmitigated bullsh*t – it is not supported by anything, it is supposed to levitate by itself, to float up in mid air, and if could spring into existence by itself – that would be grand!

        It’s the same situation a particular little “education town” in New England has found itself in: no no no, we only do education – we’re fine – levitating in mid-air on a cloud of self-righeousness… we don’t need no stinkin’ industrial zones, practical application for the kids finishing school… naah – that’s for the others. (fast forward to 2017) oh sh*t! now that they’ve moved most of their education online, we don’t have no stinkin’ students coming in anymore. Wouldn’t it be great if we had an industrial zone? Question is, now with what people? How do you recover after 30-40-50 years of pig-headed public policy?!

        Morons… the lot of them!

      • flawse, there is an economic setting that would sort this out …

        The government bows out of tinkering with the economy altogether, dials back the plethora of regulations that stifle innovation, productivity and business formation and just gets on with the administration of the country.

        Oh, and withdraw the RBA’s mandate to set interest rates and underwrite credit creation …

        It would be a painful adjustment (for the boomers, in particular) but great for future generations!

      • Amazon lore 101
        the frst thing those Amazon aboriginals would tell you
        if you have more people than your resources allow, get rid of the people
        If you have some in the village not pulling their weight get rid of them
        If someone with another creed arrives, they are good tucker.

        Now that lore worked for 50,000 years
        white man comes among with religious doctrine and ruins it all.
        I have seen it first hand with primitive people.
        and
        am seeing it for a second time with the punters of today being sold a 3 shell 2 pea game.

        Re inventions there is nothing you could invent today that is practically needed, say for the next 10 years.
        Most innovations today are directed to channelling money back to the promoters.
        Most with money are promoting the new inventions.
        When the white man left the Congo etc, who owned it??

    • Record wind in the right direction produced race record. Politics esp s44 record wind in all directions. Trump record wind but his only achievement is to reduce revenue increase spending and alternately tear down his inheritance or claim credit for things looking better. We’re in a record wind environment.

    • agree with you WW. It has taken generations to reach this level of stupidity. Even if there was a way back it would take at least four generations to achieve.

    • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

      Yep,..me to,…but it’s not very representative of our broader society is it,…not a single fattie!
      Makes me feel vilified and unrepresented.

      • Yep where is the cultural diversity and token indigenous Australian being represented? How about a trans gender person? Or a homosexual family? I am shocked and offended and I want someone to do something about it.

      • Meere’s work was probably a fairly accurate view of the racial mix (or rather non-mix) of people likely to be seen on Australian beaches in 1940.

        At that time, Australia was practising the so-called “White Australia” policy, and the era of mass migration from continental Europe, let alone Asia, was still years away. Even by 1947, less than 10% of the Australian population were born overseas and, of those, almost three-quarters were from Great Britain and Ireland. It can therefore be argued that, so far as the racial mix in 1940 is concerned, Meere was to a significant extent simply reflecting what he saw.

      • mild colonialMEMBER

        @wingnut you reckon? I think most beaches don’t look all that dissimilar today. The cbd might, beach not so much.
        Even with our supposed white Australia there was probably unfashionable and therefore unacknowledged ethnic diversity. Just thinking through my vague knowledge of Australian history, by the 1940s Greeks, Italians and Lebanese had settled, Kanakas, Maoris, Aborigines had all contributed to the gene pool (or we’d contributed to theirs) American gold rushers of all races had come here, Chinese had been and many forced to go again, Jews, Romanies, Afghans, Persians, Pakistani, Japanese, Germans had all settled here. Armenians, Russians?

      • @ haroldus, the intention was to reference the history and context of the image to avoid it becoming reframed, re-contextualised in support of some fabricated nostalgic societal ideal of a 1940’s Australia vs contemporary Australia.

        I failed^^^ (thanks Wing Nut)

        EP should take some comfort in the fact that, ‘fatties’ were rarely represented in propagandised iconography of ‘ideal’ societies anywhere during the build up to the second world war. Just the usual stereotypes to rally young men to war.

        So- Is it a representation of a beach in the 1940’s or a piece of propaganda intent on readying a people for war?.

      • @wingnut I’m visiting Sydney first time in 5yrs and its spot the aussie in the cbd and beaches. I’m an aussie and definitely feel like the minority. Cbd especially is very much like Singapore

      • @bigboss Someone who speaks English would be a start, again yet to see many in the Sydney cbd here. But I’m from qld where speaking English is the norm

      • mild colonialMEMBER

        @pound poor
        Ok, modernism. When I was looking at it I thought the nice thing about our modernist paintings is that we can still enjoy them without having to cringe at all the ancient propaganda but now i see the war message. Thanks. Well it’s still a pretty powerful picture : it works.

  4. Here’s an exercise in confirmation bias. Some outfit called Politifact has just named President Trump’s claim that the Russia interference is a hoax as their Lie of the Year for 2017.

    Now is that a reminder that Mr Trump is a prodigious liar and that the Russians did interfere in the US presidential election or is it further evidence that the MSM and the liberal socialist sheeple are still drinking the koolaid.

    http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/article/2017/dec/12/2017-lie-year-russian-election-interference-made-s/

    and sort of related, I came across this the other day: Hitchen’s razor: “What can be asserted without evidence can be dismissed without evidence”.

    • But the Russian’s bought advertising on the Face bookie and that definitely swayed public opinion … I mean people believe everything they see on the Internet.. 😁

      • mild colonialMEMBER

        That’s the thing, isn’t it. The reason for free speech and democracy was that they were meant to be stronger than any campaign within their paradigm. I think once again the American democracy survived this attack. I wouldn’t say American democracy or justice is perfect but as far as freedom of speech goes, you can hear every argument under the sun if you’re interested to, in America.

      • @ Mild

        Fixation on freedom of speech alone is no guarantee of freedom. Indeed if you want to hear every argument under the sun you can if interested but this is where the buck stops. In a strong corporatocracy the US is, the “conspiracies” need not as any voice that threaten the substance of the corporatocracy will be muted and dealt with by corporate entities due to the common interest and self preservation. Just look into their election and lack of any meaningful change or shift with the change of government throughout their history.
        Freedom on the street level… yep, apparent and the most present. Freedom above the punter level… well.. only if you fit the model.
        There is actually more overall breadth and depth of freedom in despotic countries and many other world countries than in US. They just do not advertise it through tv, film and internet. When US starts to see alternative political voice ascend to legislative power you may talk of freedom presence. In the mean time it is just a well oiled clockwork that has primary function to keep freedom to superficial level and well advertised.

        it seems as sarcasm was not sensed in Gavin’s reply.

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      Or this…? From the comments…

      lacebugdouble bay,Dec 28 2017 at 8:36am

      Yeah, I really miss Kings Cross when it was an area I could never visit after dark for fear of being beaten up by a drunken bogan.

      • “Yeah, I really miss Kings Cross when it was an area I could never visit after dark for fear of being beaten up by a drunken bogan” Mike Baird

    • Baird closing all the bars is merely a coincidence.

      It would be interesting to see who bought in the area during this time.

  5. Anyone got more holiday anecdotes? Between hospital shifts, TV watching and far too little exercise, I have no life and must live vicariously. I suppose I should take one for the MB team and drag myself to the local Westfield to do a state of the consumer economy recon …

    • I haven’t left the house since Christmas morning. Today I woke up and needed to stretch due to my body starting to complain from all the lying about that I’m doing. Living the dream.

      I have just discovered udemy, so I’m attempting a programming course. It’s cheaper than going to the movies. If anyone is interested I can report back to say whether or not I found it to be worth the $19. So far it seems to be.

      What’s interesting is that unlike MOOCS anyone can whack a course together and throw it up there. They currently have a bundle of courses based around profiting off bitcoin. Other funny one’s that I’ve found are ‘What to Text a Girl You Like’, ‘Clairvoyant Aura Readings for Beginners’, ‘How to Get Free Products for Life’ and ‘Reincarnation: Working with the Past for a Better Future’. The reincarnation one looked cool because it uses a badass portrait of Edgar Allan Poe.

      I’m obviously procrastinating.

      • I am interested in if its any value or not.

        I know sweet FA about programming anything but am trying to get an 11 year old son into some semblance of awareness about the desirability of him having some IT relatable skills for his future employment prospects….

      • Gunna,

        I’m specifically doing this for work and I’m not interested in the computer science theory. I just want to learn how to write a program that works so that I can pull in data, manipulate it and then present it. So the more vocational nature of having an instructor run through the language suits me. Even though I’m only about 10% through it, I’d say so far so good for me.

        The language is python and when looking around there were many different platforms and approaches to learning it.
        Some examples are
        – getting a Rasperry Pi and tinkering
        – games that teach you to how program as you progress
        – how to build an app
        – udemy type user generated courses
        – youtube vids
        – the more academic MOOCS, or
        – buy a book and learn from that.

        It’s definitely a paradox of choice issue when trying to pick and I’d recommend just figuring out what works best for your son and getting him to go down those lines. Thankfully the only cost is generally time (unlike university), and even if the first choice doesn’t work out you’ve learned something about how you best learn.

      • thanks for that reply

        as for

        I just want to learn how to write a program that works so that I can pull in data, manipulate it and then present it

        Although I have no specific work requirement to do so I wouldnt mind knowing how to do that………..as someone who currently goes through reams of information the old fashioned way (ie reading) and physically entering what i want)

      • Gunna,

        This could be right up your alley.
        https://automatetheboringstuff.com/
        A few people I know who have done the course have found it to be useful and think that the instructor is a goodun.
        The udemy link to his video version is at the bottom of the link, should you want to see some instructional vids.

      • There is only really one approach to learning programming. And that is by building programs, whatever the language.
        Pick a target app or process you want to build, dont be too ambitious and make a start.

        Make it all one function to start with, then branch out from “Hello world” into functions and classes once you can see the forest for the trees. Its good to have a clear idea what you want to achieve before you start. Languages don’t have a “maybe” function or keyword (unless you include the random functions in the math library….).

        Python is a reasonable choice. I would use an IDE myself. I use python for scripting, along with perl, javascript and groovy. Typically I would not use python for large projects (products, enterprise apps) but its very productive for tinkering and requires a little less infrastructure than java and C#. Good open source support in python as well. That means if you need a library to create a pdf, native excel spreadsheet format file, implement a REST service etc there is probably several to choose from.

        Stack overflow is your friend. Populated mostly by nerds, the odd one (odd I am sure) extremely competent. There are heaps of questions already answered regarding all major languages (and python is a fairly popular language) or you can submit your own question as a newbie. Just say you are new to programming before asking which way is up.

        https://wiki.python.org/moin/IntegratedDevelopmentEnvironments

      • DarkMatterMEMBER

        @Gunna

        Raspberry Pi is definitely a great way to get started. https://www.raspberrypi.org/ It is very kid oriented and there are actually lots of very friendly magazines and guides. They seem to recommend starting with Scratch then Python, which has become the new BASIC for beginning programming. Python is now very widely used in science and even AI.

        If you can spark some interest, then eventually an interest in Docker http://www.zdnet.com/article/what-is-docker-and-why-is-it-so-darn-popular/ will mean guaranteed employment potential. Containerised software and lots of little computers in network clouds has a very big future. Rasperry Pi is great for learning about networks.

      • Python is a good choice if you want to automate a ‘spreadsheet-like’ task such as reading in data, transforming it in some way and then producing complicated charts, repeatedly.

        I suggest starting with Anaconda python, and in addition to the relevant bits of the python standard library, focus on learning pandas and matplotlib. I agree with Bruce’s suggestion to use an IDE. I have found that Spyder works well for me.

        A place to start is with a tedious task that you already have, and incrementally build a script to automate it. e.g. start by reading the data in to a useful form (e.g. a dataframe), then work out the code to perform your transformations, then the code to make the most simple plot you can, then build on that to make a plot more like what you want, then the code to output to a pdf, etc. etc. Stack exchange will provide answers to each of the little steps along the way.

        This might not be the best way for you to learn, but it is more or less the path I have taken to learn python once i decided excel and origin were too limited for what I wanted to achieve.

        I originally started using R, but have since switched to using python a couple of years ago, once I discovered pandas. Python has the advantage of being a general purpose language with a really diverse ecosystem of libraries, so when you want to do obscure things like talk to a DMM via SCPI via USB, talk to devices by modbus-tcp, do thermodynamic calculations, there will be libraries, something you might not find with a more focused language like R.

      • Docker is just a packaging and deployment platform (currently massively overhyped, as the latest wheel-reinvention from the Linux community).

        It’s not really a part of ‘learning to program’. You do not need Docker to implement the programming concepts it promotes like “microservices”.

      • drsmithy you are such a wet blanket. I believe Google has been using kubernetes containers for a while now. Have you tried dockerswarm with a bunch of little computers? The concepts have been around for a while, but the trick is making them accessible. Containers run very nicely on little ARM computers that can never run full VMs and having simple software that handles all the network plumbing is a big step forward.

        When MSDOS came on the original PC, it was dismissed as a toy. What the snooty people said was it was primitive and useless. Back then, DEC (PDP-11 and VAX) thought the PC was a joke. They built their own fancy “PC” that was “properly” engineered. DEC was gone in the space of 10 years.

        Big Iron servers that fill up machine rooms have evolved to be very good at running inefficient software. They have huge memory, huge caches and fast IO to suit the big expensive machine software model. ARM is a much more efficient architecture and software architecture is adapting to that. I don’t think docker is going away soon.

      • The question asked was how to get a child into programming.

        Docker has little to nothing to do with programming, especially at the beginner level. And while, yes, it probably isn’t going away soon, it’ll likely be replaced by the next cool thing in 5-10 years so learning the largely timeless core programming skills and knowledge is a far better use of time.

        Best not to get too “snooty” about companies like DEC with their fancy “engineering”. Without them to do the hard work first, the OSS community wouldn’t have anything to make poor copies of.

      • Andrew LeesMEMBER

        I’d say Python is the best supported language for data collection, reduction/processing/selecting and presentation. Particularly look closely as the scipy and matplotlib packages (and lots of other domain related bits). They are easy to get to grips with and very powerful. For stats you can’t really go past R – and python has a good interface to R if you need to mi and match.

        If you are familiar with Matlab there are free alternatives such as Octave.

    • d76 – mate, you do not have to do a Peter Lynch of your local Westfield to get a measure of your community, given that you work in a hospital. I recently did an 11 hour stint in a public hospital waiting to be told to come back next day. The workplace there seemed a prime example of the great big multicultural melting pot that is Australia. Lots of different skin colours, numerous accents and languages, right from the specialists through to the cleaners. From your vantage point, how reliant is our health system on migrants?

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F3_MfDYVKlg

      • “From your vantage point, how reliant is our health system on migrants?”

        Wrong question… the correct framing is how reliant is – our – health system on MBA’s administering it.

    • Local Westfield story for you.

      Anglo teens congregated in the shadows of an adjacent carpark building glued to phones. Has to be the only spot where they can get free wifi from either the nearby Maccas or from the center itself. It is not clear why they don’t just go into the center itself – certainly plenty of free space in the food court to accommodate them, and its not exactly pleasant outside. Perhaps they have no money to spend and don’t need to be reminded of this or don’t feel like integrating with others? Added bonus is that the shadows of a carpark improves screen contrast and those few smokers can smoke.

      Inside the center is not as busy as expected. Plenty of free seating in the food courts and the shops did not seem particularly busy. Given its Canberra I strongly suspect that anyone that has the spending capacity was out of town. Quite a melting pot inside the center itself. Fatties abound here – disturbingly among the young and the children of relatively recent arrivals. Reaffirms decision to invest in diabetes related treatment stocks.

      Center has installed a range of mobility scooters to accommodate the codgers and fatties. Problem is that nobody wants to hire these things or they already have their own. In this quiet corridor where the scooters are located once contained specialist small retail business like luggage, handbags and other womens clothing places have been replaced with coffee and cake (diabetes accelerant) food retailers. Retail rot of codger corridor is slowly expanding as these specialist discretionary retailers are replaced by coffee places. Zombification vector points to the business at the end of the corridor, David Jones. Full credit to Lowy for selling up.

      Pass through the light industrial/mixed business area. Ghost town with the exception of several massage places which all appear to be open for business. They don’t seem to stand out, in terms of the total numbers, outside of the holiday season periods.

  6. Australia’s economy closing in on the world’s top 10
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/australia-s-economy-closing-in-on-the-world-s-top-10-20171226-p4yy2i.html?btis

    Population growth will help propel Australia to become the world’s 11th biggest economy within a decade, a report predicts.

    The London-based Centre for Economics and Business Research is forecasting Australia will climb two places on its world economic league table by 2026 from its current ranking of 13.

    to do what again?

    Countries that depend on brainpower to drive their economies will generally overtake those dependant on natural resources, with China tipped to replace the US as the world’s biggest economy in 2030, the centre says.

    While Australia’s economic growth has been fuelled by resources in recent years, the centre also noted that it’s become one of the most popular countries in the world for inward migration.

    Australia’s growth is fuelld by resources so why are we taking so many migrants again?

    And it’s particularly Australia’s intake of migrants with highly sought-after skills that will help fuel its future growth.

    Huh? How does their being skilled affect anything if all they do is join the ranks of the part time bedpan economy or become property speculators?

    “The growing population means the economy is forecast to rise from 13th largest in 2017 to 11th largest economy in 2026,” the centre’s 2018 World Economic League Table said.

    So its simply bigger for bigger’s sake?

    “Investment in urban infrastructure will need to accelerate as population increases.”

    so the infrastructure we are currently seeing being built will become packed to the rafters as soon as it is built and another government wanking on about government debt and giving away tax cuts to corporates and high income types and property speculators can trash it all over again? Gee thanks…

    Australia took in just under 190,000 permanent migrants during the 2015-2016 financial year, the majority of whom were skilled.

    How many are skilled at doing something they will use in Australia (see bedpans) or will do something with those skills which contributes to an economic return for the land they are migrating to?

    Some, however, believe we should trim our intake.

    anyone who drives to work in a major urban centre for starters. Anyone fed up with queues at medical centres or crowded schools or packed trains, or a tertiary education system reduced to scalping demand for some of the most meaningless courses on the planet, which are front running the population ponzi, for 2nds, 3rds etc

    A survey published by the Australian Population Research Institute in October found three quarters of Australians believe the country doesn’t need any more people and nearly half support a partial ban on Muslims migrants.

    They (the 3/4 of the population) will be the people in the queues mainly.

    The institute said at the time it believed the results were driven by the impact of population growth on people’s quality of life and the rapid change in Australia’s ethnic and religious make-up.

    Surprising that. When government policy fucks up peoples quality of life to provide a payoff for a very small number of people, not including those whose lives are screwed over, those being screwed over tend to be disinclined to have the experience repeated over and over – particularly when their politicians never ask them, and when their politicians appear suspiciously inclined to accept payments from anyone offering, not always be playing for the same side, and keen on suckling the public teat for their allowances and perquisites.

    But the Centre for Economics and Business Research’s report says that with the digital revolution set to power the world economy through to 2032, countries will need creative workers and one of the best ways to get them is through migration.

    Does it need them creatively working part time hours in aged care facilities, creatively speculating in an asset class which is a social good, creatively avoiding paying taxes, or creatively working out how to get as much out of medicare without contributing as they possibly can? Does it need them honing their skills by creatively gouging the bejeesus out of existing Australians? Any mention of training up our own creative types or doe the fact we have trashed education in Australia to support a population ponzi mean we cant train our own people any more (and if so, shouldnt we mention that to some of them currently paying insane amounts for meaningless courses?)

    It also predicts energy prices will fall in the next 25 years amid a substantial rise in the use of renewables for power generation and growth of energy supplies from fracking.

    Does it have anything to say about there not being any fracking because people dont want their water supply trashed by the chemicals pumped into the ground as part of the process, and dont like a load of trucks and derricks rocking up unannounced to start operations without their being given a say so?

    Does it say much about the fact our gas producing sectors has revenues in the billions but all it currently seems to do is pay no tax whatsoever, and increase domestic energy prices by exporting Australian gas offshore rather than using it in Australia, or anything about the fact that this dynamic is pricing Australian export competing industries out simply through its effects on energy prices locally?

    Does the report suggest there may be some merit in waiting for the renewables boom to have already lowered energy prices before opening the immigration floodgates any more given we currently have fairly antiquated energy production infrastructure
    which all too often still relies on coal?

    Resource-rich economies that fail to diversify risk having their economic growth impeded, the centre warned.

    Does that mean this resource reliant and rich economy should hold off on importing all the extra bums on seats until it has an economic narrative revolving around doing something value adding (as far as the rest of the world sees it – and pays for it), or should it do nothing other than filling boats bound for China with dirt and using that to subsidise a load of uncompetitive locals (and a an ever increasing load of freeloaders being shipped in)? What is the long term outlook for that as a strategy? Did the report happen to mention anything about that?

    Meanwhile some of Australia’s closest neighbours are expected to enjoy booms, with the centre forecasting the economic rise of developing countries.

    Indonesia and Korea are expected to enter the top 10 of the world’s biggest economies by 2032, with Taiwan, Thailand and the Philippines all on track to enter the top 25.

    “By 2030 three of the world’s top four economies will be Asian (China, India and Japan),” the centre said.

    Is there something for Australia to learn from their experience? like do something productive and tailor the immigration demand accordingly?

    Yet another classic example of Fairfax just cutting and pasting something to ‘report’ on a report without touching anything remotely related to the implications of it within the experience of the people they presumably would like to sell to…..

    • “It also predicts energy prices will fall in the next 25 years amid a substantial rise in the use of renewables for power generation and growth of energy supplies from fracking”

      All of Australia’s problems come from the Greens and Labor being pro population growth. Fix Australia? Destroy Greens and Labor.

    • “countries will need creative workers and one of the best ways to get them is through migration”

      That’s right – trying to generate your own creative workers through education and a culture of enlightenment and innovation has proved to be a complete failure. Our politicians have got us on the right track, for sure.

      • The Traveling Wilbur

        Much more efficient to import all those highly skilled hairdressers, chefs, used car salespeople and telephone sanitation engineers than to train up one of the young’uns here.

        Quite right. Saves on higher ed funding too.

      • That’s right – trying to generate your own creative workers through education and a culture of enlightenment and innovation has proved to be a complete failure.

        When “a culture of enlightenment and innovation” and, indeed, pretty much anything “different” are viewed with suspicion and fear, then subsequently marginalised, yes it has been rather a failure.

    • A comment about the coding for your offspring.
      Get him into maths – always easier for a mathematician to teach himself to code when he needs to know than to teach a coder advanced maths.
      The number of people doing advanced maths in this country is a very small club.

      • Cheers mate, believe it or not I have just been doing maths homework with him then.

        His Grade 5 Naplan had him at band 8 (which i know is bullshit but he is at least on top of the bullshit there to do) and he subsequently did a load of extra homework in Russia with tutors over there (where there was some surprise insofar as he didnt know some things that kids over there know for sure, but did know some things that they didnt know too) while on a 4 month sojourn with mum in 2H2017.

        I wouldnt say he is any sort of maths genius, but sheer obdurate pestering by dad (and an enthusiasm on his part for getting dad out of his hair) has him at least showing some form.

      • The fun way too
        -murderous maths is a series of about 20 books,which are fun and clever. Cover most maths topics until year 11, in a very humerous
        and understandable fashion.
        Aimed at sub teens( we purchased the lot in the uk online, after we couldn’t persuade anyone to import them locally!)
        -Mathematical Cabinet of Curiosities by Ian Stewart,and everything else this bloke has written. Found the first one in Dymocks,and got the rest online when not available here.
        I think our maths kid was 8 when we got the first lot( and he read them into his teens),and Ian Stewart was his 14th birthday present. A very worthwhile investment.

      • Mathematics is not interesting and doesn’t stick if you don’t exist in a context that needs it. Get into an interesting field like electronics, computational chemistry, mech.eng, etc, and the desire to learn maths comes naturally.
        If one has no interest in technical fields, then they’re probably not cut out for doing any real maths.

      • @RJK2000

        It’s interesting you mentioned that… truth is that some take to abstract thinking like fish to water, others really need to find the usefulness and immediate application of maths to real life problems. With the latter, they need to find first a problem and get passionate about it, and that will get them going looking for more knowledge. Force-feeding information to them only works to an extent before clues start bouncing off their heads.

        If only someone told me why the f*ck we need to do all those stupid matrix operations in advanced algebra in Uni… like you’re going to need that sh*t if you want to do anything to an image! Fancy that – an image is really a matrix of vectors. You want to rotate that 90 degrees clock-wise? Why – do we have a matrix operation for you to help! Oh, look – JPEG compression… bloody matrix operations again. And so on and so forth!

      • I got a passion for vectors and phasors in high school when i found they’re useful for electronics (my hobby) from an early Tandy electronics maths book. That was in the heyday of electronics kits in the 70s. Matrices became useful for solving circuits equations. I had absolutely no interest in computers until i found one can simulate circuits and other things. As for 90deg matrix rotations, quarternions are a good shortcut for that. Now i make simulator programs and compilers, but analog electronics is the root of it all.
        Maths literacy would be improved a lot in schools if students were motivated by interesting problems to solve, but that is beyond most teachers’ abilities. A lot of teachers are just empty vessels to dispense empty, sterile, abstract information for an empty, sterile society of BS jobs (if any).

      • @RJK2000 Precisely … however – see, yes, quaternions *are* a nice shortcut to that, but, from the knowledge perspective you have to know them both – you have to understand each one of them and where they stand. From a visualisation point of view – if you want to show to someone WTH a matrix rotation is – you go the “the hard way”… why? because then you can explain all the relationships between the initial and the transformed and because there was no “magic” in between. Then you can go, hey! Look at this nifty thing now! 😀

        I don’t know how the system works here “in the advanced world” but in my times, we kind of had a layered approach … some things were done “the hard way” then re-hashed and refreshed with the new info/knowledge – sometimes – just in passing, but enough to see how it all tied together… But I don’t know how it is, anymore… It’s been a while.

        And yes… you’re right… empty delivery of information. I totally missed the maths train. Loved Physics and Chemistry, until the three of them converged and all relied heavily on maths… (that was about year 3 (of 5) of Uni) Fsck*!

      • “A lot of teachers are just empty vessels to dispense empty, sterile, abstract information for an empty, sterile society of BS jobs (if any).’

        As every truth, this hurts.
        And I can see it in teachers here.
        Not sure if this was imposed on them, by them or its is a simple product of entropy.

      • A lot of teachers are just empty vessels to dispense empty, sterile, abstract information for an empty, sterile society of BS jobs (if any).

        In no small part because we have a culture where teaching is generally viewed (and remunerated) as a job for those who have failed at doing something “useful”.

    • Is it just the ad blocker on my browser, or was that SMH article open for comments this AM (I am sure I saw a few pointing out that immigration is too high) but is now closed with all the comments deleted? If so, it is most impressive that the pro immigration censorship / thought control council has employees working today.

    • “And it’s particularly Australia’s intake of migrants with highly sought-after skills that will help fuel its future growth.”

      Oh, like my cab driver who drove me from Adelaide Airport. Nice Indian chap. Asked what brought hime to Adelaide.
      Student visa (cooking)
      Now permanent resident
      Reason for studying in Australia – permanent residence
      Married to an arranged marriage bride from Delhi
      Mother, Father and siblings due to emigrate soon, under family reunion program and student visas.
      Driving skills needed updating – drove like a Mumbai taxi driver (fast and reckless)

      Great example of immigration growing our economy……

      • That is an example of the modern day politics where the Conservatives introduce policies for the benefit of the rich, and then followed up by the Progressives “fine-tuning” those policies for the benefit of the poor. Leaving everyone in the middle classes completely f*cked over by both sides of politics.

        Conservatives increase “Skilled migrant” intake to fill “skilled vacancies” and to support an ageing population. Progressives “fine-tune” those policies by allowing relatives of skilled migrants to come into the country with full access to welfare. End result for the masses in the middle:
        – wage suppression
        – increased house prices
        – massive unfunded liabilities (read higher future tax dependency) for infrastructure expansion (transport/schools/hospitals) and future welfare support
        – of course we end up with an older population than what we started with

    • St JacquesMEMBER

      “And it’s particularly Australia’s intake of migrants with highly sought-after skills that will help fuel its future growth.”
      Totally contradicted by the last 20 years experience of the two great immigration states, NSW and Victoria, that have run up huge trade/current account deficits

    • You can see it already: the number of ‘locally produced’ future welfare dependents will be off the dial as they are frozen out of the jobs markets at a crucial age by this mega-influx of immigrants. The judgement of the political ‘elites’ is beyond belief — and they will never be held accountable (except perhaps in history books).

  7. BUT IF MUM OR DAD ARE HELPING WITH THE UNI FEES, ‘LIKE IT CAN’T BE THAT BAD’

    Specifically, Analysis of ABS Scientific, Professional & Technical Services (SPT) Sector Employment (Read Uni research intern & 3 year research scholarship job-gigs, ‘used’ to flatter the data). This finding flags that reported SPT job growth of 1.4% in 2016, could be more like 1.28%, and probably under 1.16% if you backed out all the interns across the economy.

    References:
    https://aibn.uq.edu.au/research-internships

    http://jobs.uq.edu.au/caw/en/job/501644/phd-scholarship-developement-and-validation-of-nanomedicines-novel-diagnostics-therapeutics-and-theranostics

    https://www.ipaustralia.gov.au/sites/g/files/net856/f/final_report_june_2016_0.pdf
    (See figure 6)

    http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/[email protected]/Latestproducts/8155.0Main%20Features72015-16?opendocument&tabname=Summary&prodno=8155.0&issue=2015-16&num=&view=

    In the 2014-15 year SPT jobs in Australia grew by just 0.4% (ie lawyers, accountants, scientists, engineers and It system design)

    The in 2015-16 the ABS data in the present Cat.8155.0 showed a big comeback to 1.4% p.a. (But aggregate sector wages fell by 4.2% < Red flag*); which 1.4% p.a. employment growth was a somewhat startling turnaround and one that would have added 150k positions. BUT EXERCISE CAUTION: What really turned it around?
    (1) The ABS gives a breakdown of SPT jobs held in Australia but they give no back-year data, nor the % gain that occurred to arrive at the present number of, for example, scientists: 24,000
    (2) Australia,s G8 universities have 2k Patent Applications (they own, not you the researcher) in place now (Uni Qld leading looks dodgy, ie 1st red flag*) and in previous research I noted high numbers of Uni Qld job adds for research interns and research scholarships (both would be counted as employed by the ABS …. you see my emerging concern**).
    (3) If half the present 24k scientists were added in the last 12 months (or the numbers were impacted by churn from traditional jobs to the intern and scholarship ones) were REALLY interns and research scholarships, that affects the whole SPT sector's % job gain over the last 12 months. If that hypothesis were correct, and we backed out these Clayton scientist jobs, the 1.4% falls to 1.28% increase in real SPT jobs for all Australia being paid jobs and ones you can expect to have in 4 years time. Then if we backed out all interns and not just the scientists, the SPT job gains are probably achieving less than 1.16% p.a. THIS IS SERIOUS IN AN ECONOMY WITH 240k HSC GRADUATES p.a. and rates in my capital city having climbed by average 10%p.a. from 2014, which if sustained over the next 35 years means I have to pay an aggregate of $300k.
    '* Red flags

    Back editions of ABS ACAT 8155.0 don't appear to have comparable PST data to true up this analysis.

    • @Gavin
      Going by body type and racial mix it looks like a staged photo!
      And yes I am making that call despite not being able to see faces.
      Whether or not any of them have legal right to purchase property on Australian soil is anyones guess?

  8. Morrison, Dutton and all those good practicing hypocritical Christians in the Conservative faction, take note, you’ve been called out for what you are by your own;

    “Evangelical Christians ‘uncritical’ in support for Trump, senior bishop says”

    Paul Bayes, bishop of Liverpool, accuses some religious leaders of ‘colluding with a system that marginalises the poor’

    Bayes told the Guardian: “Some of the things that have been said by religious leaders seem to collude with a system that marginalises the poor, a system which builds walls instead of bridges, a system which says people on the margins of society should be excluded, a system which says we’re not welcoming people any more into our country.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/dec/28/evangelical-christians-uncritical-in-support-for-donald-trump-says-paul-bayes-bishop-liverpool

    • Pope John Paul II’s also said “the fundamental question of our time is whether the West has the will to survive” and the confidence to defend its values “at any cost”. “At any cost”.???
      WW, nope, smashed avocado and flipping houses is the go.
      Ever wonder why the Unicorns missed getting aboard with Cpt Noa on the Ark.

  9. TheRedEconomistMEMBER

    From the AFR website an hour or so ago

    Home prices will have fallen about 0.5 per cent in December, led by a 0.9 per cent drop in Sydney, Corelogic figures to be released on Tuesday will show.

    Only Adelaide will post growth with a 0.1 per cent rise over December. Melbourne, Brisbane and Perth will all report weaker home prices for December.

    The December figures mean aggregate house prices across the five mainland capital cities will end the year up about 4.4 per cent – less than half the peak growth rate of 10.4 per cent registered in May. Melbourne, up nine per cent, will be the only city to record strong growth.

    Sydney home prices will end the year up just over three per cent, Brisbane (including the Gold Coast) will be up 2.7 per cent and Adelaide up three per cent. Perth home prices will have fallen about 2.2 per cent over the year.

    The December fall means Sydney house prices have dropped more than two per cent in the past four months with median values falling below $900,000 and trending down since August following an exodus of investors from the market.

    Surging population growth

    “Based on data released for the five mainland state capitals so far in December, home prices may have fallen by 0.5 per cent in the month,” said Commsec chief economist Craig James.

    “Sydney home prices have fallen the most over the period, down 0.9 per cent. The only capital city to post a gain since the end of November has been Adelaide, up 0.1 per cent.”

    Australia’s most accurate housing market forecaster, SQM Research’s Louis Christopher, expects house prices to rise between four and eight per cent in 2018, led by Melbourne (gains of seven to 12 per cent), Hobart (eight to 13 per cent) and Canberra (five to nine per cent).

    He forecasts Sydney house prices to rise four to eight per cent. Perth will tick over into mildly positive territory and small gains are likely in Adelaide and Brisbane.

    Mr Christopher believes house prices are overvalued, but says surging population growth will underpin demand for housing in Sydney and Melbourne and prevent any big correction.

    Read more: http://www.afr.com/real-estate/residential/sydney-leads-property-fall-as-house-prices-drop-05-per-cent-in-december-20171228-h0atnw#ixzz52WItYHDg

    • GunnamattaMEMBER

      but says surging population growth will underpin demand for housing in Sydney and Melbourne and prevent any big correction.

      and that, brother, is why Malcolm and Bill will say mum about the population ponzi for the next year – and which should lead to some right feral anti immigration types (even more nutty than me – all I want is immigration which fits the economy, not immigration ended per se) being fairly popular with an electorate which is increasingly aware it is being reamed by politicians to support gouging corporates, specufesting babyboomers and the banks and real estate lobbies, by the time the next election comes around.

      In fact I think that if they can get an Indian summer out of commodity prices about now then they may go early 2018 (and save themselves of need to go through a byelection frenzy

    • Depends on where you are, some of the houses around North Shore are going for $200,000 to $300,000 less than original asking price, not selling at Auction or have been taken off the market

      • Unfortunately no addresses, however, there was one in Thornleigh that was on Sale for $1.6 then slowly they put the price down to $1.35, now it’s been taken off the market. Was on the market for around 3 months. There were others, in the New Year I’ll remember to provide a link to any other properties I see like this one.

    • As I said in 2002 when confronting the same question about demand and price. If only demand dictated prices then India would have the highest priced homes. (I have assumed that India has the most homeless and slum dwellers). Its the lending that makes prices rise or fall.

    • Loonies like Christopher can’t possibly bring themselves to stare into the abyss staring straight back at them. Property prices can only ever go up! Forever!

      Here’s a prediction. 20+ years of falls and abject poverty/slavery to the banks for OZ mortgage holders.

      Sell now. or accept your fate.

      My preference is for most specufestors to wait. And burn.

      • I think that he knows the fundamentals are bunk, but he isn’t commenting on that. His specialty is short term housing market predictions and his track record is pretty good. I’d actually get a little worried if he said that the end was nigh.

      • Point is he’ll never say the end was nigh. None of them will. And none of them ever have. Even when the end was headbutting them in the mouth.

        How many called it in the US? UK? Spain and Ireland?

        They are financial crystal-ball gazers, liars and wizards, gimps who know they play the game their masters intend them to.

        They’ll disappear when it goes supernova.

    • Mining BoganMEMBER

      I might toddle in to the ground for a few hours tomorrow. Could be an interesting day. Would have done it this arvo but was held up for an hour by a man who used to think property prices would drop but now thinks they never will. Oh, and that Nth Queensland couldn’t be any hotter than it was in Melbourne today. Then the ex-Brissie lad who I told the weather story to and knowingly nodded his head. Also the guy on a bike who pulled up beside me on my bike and decided I would be the one to ask for directions to the creek trail. The discussion about various trails took some time too.

      Shut my mouth and I might get an occasional excursion.

      • That seems like a good reason to get out and about.

        Cook has just passed Lara on the all time runs list. You’d imagine root declaring tonight. A bit of a shame as Cook doesn’t have a carry next to his name and he deserved it for this innings.

      • Mining BoganMEMBER

        I genuinely enjoyed his innings. Just the fight he showed while struggling early. Ridiculously strong mind.

        Did Australia have a plan B after the short stuff didn’t work? Apparently not. You know, if England get Warner cheap early and expose how brittle we can be then listening to the Barmy Army could be very entertaining.

    • Cook showed showed complete contempt for the Australian bowlers diplaying patience and shot selection. Broads 56 of 63 is also worth a mention, utter pain in da azz for the Australian attack to not clean up the tail ender’s.

    • It was wonderful batting. He was whipping off leg, and driving at will. Not a thing looked like getting him out, except for the 2 dropped chances.

      He is so calm. A great to watch, when he’s on. The leg and off drives were hit hard! And placed wonderfully.

      Irritating and compulsive.

  10. GunnamattaMEMBER

    That’d be the AUD back above the .78 level again, for anyone wondering.

    Maybe all those japesters are right – .8, .85 and parity all ahead of us now

    Been on an absolute ball tear for the last month

  11. Gunnamatta re your 11yr old son … the trick is to find something he enjoys doing and comes to him naturally, so practice feels like play and the workplace crap is tolerable because the work is enjoyable. If he is also good at it compared to others and it pays well then you have a winner. Being good with people not assessed at school but advantageous in life. So worth exposing him to coding to see if he has talent. If not try something else. For example being good with people of all ages also valuable. Keep trying, I am with my kids also.

  12. And the above is distilled from being in the same recruitment group in my 20s with people who are now CEOs and directors but not being of quite the same stuff myself. I am very very good at what I do but i am not good at people. Learning to know myself and living with that took many years. I am writing in the hope that you can save your son some of my mileage.

    • Just on a side note: I really do wonder if someone will ever come up and say: “I really suck at what I do”

      • ErmingtonPlumbingMEMBER

        Well,… I’m a very Average Plumber, a bit Lazy, not very punctual, poorly organised and a huge procrastinator,…I put much of this down to a lack of Competitiveness and Ambition,… possibly genetic in nature.

        I’m reasonably intelligent though and have a genuine love of engaging with people of all types. I usually manage to extract the life stories of most of my Customers and have a sizable referral base, Inspite of my irritating and annoying habit of talking to much (about politics mostly) and lackluster time management skills.

        I don’t think I could ever go back on wages and pretend to be Sorry for being late every second day!
        If my Son or Daughter wake as I’m leaving the house, just in time to get to work, and want a cuddle,…well then I’m Gunna be late,…Sorry,…but I’m not Sorry boss!

        I do price my work accordingly though,…and almost never lose a Quote and find that being at the lower end of the plumbing affordability scale,…has my customers very forgiving of my lack of Punctuality and persistent advocating for them Joining and helping to reforming the ALP.

        We can’t all be high achieving, Supermen like Skip and Boomerengine!