Jobs takes: Curb your enthusiam

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At one end is Westpac:

November’s headline employment gain exceeded expectations by a significant margin but we would caution before interpret this as suggesting an acceleration in labour demand. As we highlighted in our preview, the weaker than expected October print associated with a falling participation suggested that sample volatility may have been behind the soft print. As such, a bounce back in November employment and participation was to be expected. In the end the robust surge in employment, and 0.2ppt gain in participation, does suggest that positive sample volatility may have been a significant factor this month. This is why we would point to the flat unemployment rate which suggests that the labour market that is holding a robust level rather than strengthening at this point.

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About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.