Boxing Day Chartfest, 26 December 2017

Libor – is there something up?

3 months UST 

10 year UST

US 10/2Yr to copper/gold

US Income growth since 1980

Euro share inheritances

Corporate Tax Rates

 

 

Currencies funding Bitcoin

 

Australian Auction Clearance Rates

Reselling at a loss – Australia

 

Slum dwellers in Asia

The growing global middle class

 

 

Australia’s budget and its return to balance (or surplus)

 

Australian Household debt

 

The greatest Bull runs

 

Number of all time highs per annum – DJIA 1910-2017

 

Global Asset prices and volatility

 

Gold sentiment

Japan Easing

 

Meat consumption by nation

Migrants as percentage of population 

Australian job creation – 2017

US quarterly GDP

The real Fed rate

Tax havens and US reinvestment 

US savings and interest payments

US consumer loans

US unemployment by state

US Fiscal Multipliers

United Kingdom share ownership over time

US Net income from offshore

US drug deaths

US life expectancy

US taxation sources

Bubbleparison

Living like Australia

Gunnamatta

Business Journo in Russia and the Middle East. Anarcho-syndicalist, wine lover, poet, and general all round punter. Currently coming to terms with Australian morning TV and commercial network news.........

Comments

  1. Excellent work.
    How about the strayan HH debt chart vs GDP
    If you subtracted FIRE from the GDP as you should, instead of adding it, the gdp goes through the floor and the debt soars like Icarus.
    When I used to lecture in Technical Analysis, (ASIC qualified) I used to use the line,
    Charts crystallise the action.You cant argue with that.

    • How about subtracting a portion of Govt spending from the GDP figure. If the economy were a ‘corporation’, Govt would be a cost centre, not a ‘profit’ centre — which it’s treated as in the GDP calculation.

    • I think he’s avoiding commentator’s curse there. Good thing too, we need a few from him Day 2. Australia nose in front Day 1 but a couple of quick wickets on a flat pitch would change things.

      • Day 2 and 3 all England. Smith only made a dozen in Day 2 and Australia collapsed from 3-244 to 327. England reached 9-491 stumps Day 3 with Cook 244no.

    • Same chart attracted my attention
      I thought the same but then looked into relative differences and it appears as if it is 2D representation of multi-dimensional object – a lot of perspective is ultimately lost.
      e.g. Swiss do not have proportionate problems as we do and look at Austria and Slovenia that nearly doubled its foreigners or Germany for reverse effects.

      Ultimately this chart needs a bit of tweaking to somewhat integrate other dimensions and to represent more than just a lovely coloured chart…
      More descriptive data is found in the OECD article where this chart is from (google by image, link to f-book and then link from there)
      What is indicative though, as is, is the 3 states that have purged lost their population of the immigration…

    • Yes that one is enlightening, although I prefer the one that shows Australians to be living the least sustainable lifestyle on Earth and considering the implications of combining the two graphics together. Hmm perhaps I should stop thinking about that and try to enjoy my World beating (eating?) lifestyle instead

    • I already knew that. 28% of AUS is foreign born and 40% of SYD and MEL are foreign born! Yet we still get called “racist” for wanting to have the same immigration rate as Canada!

      So, Canada is racist? The left wing is full of lies. And unfortunately, AUS is full of utterly stupid voters who fell for the red herring from Howard and Gillard (oh no! a few boat arrivals!).

  2. Two of the more interesting charts:
    1. The spike in 3mth Libor since the beginning of 2016 (it has gone parabolic)
    2. The U.S. personal savings vs interest payments — savings rate in the gutter while interest payments back at 2007 levels when cash rates were higher than 5% (better pray rates don’t go too much higher).

    • $1.48-1.50 for discount etrol up here, 1.62 for 98 octane.
      not all that long ago in economic time, petrol was 98 cents here.
      Someone is squirreling it away
      anyone considering an EV needs to look at the installation cost of a fast charger in the home. 3 to 5 k.

  3. Surprising that UK inheritance % hasn’t changed all that much over the 20thC or so (from 75% down to 60%). That’s a much smaller change than other countries on that chart. Suggests that Thatcher wasn’t really needed at all. The people she enabled were already doing quite well.

  4. The last chart is a monument to wastefulness of some societies.
    I hope that some countries between US and Korea are omitted… sort of to dampen the step

    • Last graph quite telling for population ponzi advocates on both sides of politics. There is actually no way to provide everyone in the world with a similar level of prosperity on offer in western society, let alone increase the population. Open up the borders and you get the third world poverty you deserve.

      • Perhaps I looked at the said chart upside down or a mirror image and saw it as a waste of resources.
        level of prosperity on offer in western society and waste creation through inefficient resource-hungry life is a very wrong measure of prosperity.
        Kinda like we could live 2x as wealthier and prosperous if we could halve the need for resource waste – to the level of Italy.

      • Definitely wasted resources. I am not questioning that.

        I am noting that only one country in that list has a lifestyle that could sustain the current world population. The capitalists and the socialists are dreaming if they think we can keep on increasing the world’s population and give everyone a mobile phone and air-conditioned apartment.

      • Thankfully not one of them has above replacement fertility, and would soon find their population falling precipitously without assistance from more fecund nations ( who in turn would find a big drop in fertility if they were able to adopt the same lifestyle)

  5. For me the most interesting chart was the one showing the vertical growth in US earnings from abroad particularly from 2000 onwards. 200 billion annually !

  6. BUT IF Mum or Dad are HELPING WITH UNI FEES, ‘LIKE IT CAN’T BE THAT BAD”

    Specifically, Analysis of ABS Scientific, Professional & Technical Services (SPT) Sector Employment (Read Uni research intern & 3 year research scholarship job-gigs, ‘used’ to flatter the data). This finding flags that SPT job growth of 1.4% in 2016, is more like 1.28%, and probably under 1.6% if you backed out all the interns across the economy.

    References:
    https://aibn.uq.edu.au/research-internships

    http://jobs.uq.edu.au/caw/en/job/501644/phd-scholarship-developement-and-validation-of-nanomedicines-novel-diagnostics-therapeutics-and-theranostics

    https://www.ipaustralia.gov.au/sites/g/files/net856/f/final_report_june_2016_0.pdf
    (See figure 6)

    http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/[email protected]/Latestproducts/8155.0Main%20Features72015-16?opendocument&tabname=Summary&prodno=8155.0&issue=2015-16&num=&view=

    In the 2014-15 year SPT jobs in Australia grew by just 0.4% (ie lawyers, accountants, scientists, engineers and It system design)

    The in 2015-16 the ABS data in the present Cat.8155.0 showed a big comeback to 1.4% p.a.; a somewhat startling turnaround and one that would have added 150k positions. BUT EXERCISE CAUTION: What really turned it around?
    (1) The ABS gives a breakdown of SPT jobs held in Australia but they give no back-year data, nor the % gain that occurred to arrive at the present number of, for example, scientists: 24,000
    (2) Australia,s G8 universities have 2k Patent Applications (they own, not you the researcher) in place now (Uni Qld leading looks dodgy, ie 1st red flag*) and in previous research I noted high numbers of Uni Qld job adds for research interns and research scholarships (both would be counted as employed by the ABS …. you see my emerging concern**).
    (3) If half the present 24k scientists were added in the last 12 months but were REALLY interns and research scholarships, that affects the whole SPT sector’s % job gain over the last 12 months. If that hypothesis were correct, and we backed out these Clayton scientist jobs, the 1.4% falls to 1.28% increase in real SPT jobs for all Australia being paid jobs and ones you can expect to have in 4 years time. Then if we backed out all interns and not just the scientists, the SPT job gains are probably achieving less than 1.16% p.a. THIS IS SERIOUS IN AN ECONOMY WITH 240k HSC GRADUATES p.a. and rates in my capital city having climbed by average 10%p.a. from 2014, which if sustained over the next 35 years means I have to pay an aggregate of $300k.
    ‘* Red flags

    • GunnamattaMEMBER

      Thanks for your thanks, you are welcome!

      They were loaded this AM while waiting for the family to get themselves ready for another binge eating/drinking event. They have been collected over the past week mainly off twitter