Why Bitcoin is not a “big short”

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From the suddenly BTC crazy AFR:

bitcoin big short is building.

The planned introduction of bitcoin futures contracts at CME Group, Cboe Global Markets and Nasdaq will make it much easier to bet on a decline. Hedge funds, which have largely stayed on the sidelines, are waiting for the Chicago Mercantile Exchange’s futures market to open for a fresh opportunity to bet against the cryptocurrency, according to more than a half dozen people trading the assets.

“The futures reduce the frictions of going short more than they do of going long, so it’s probably net bearish,” said Craig Pirrong, a business professor at the University of Houston. “Having this instrument that makes it easier to short might keep the bitcoin price a little closer to reality.”

Some see the bitcoin market as “one of the greatest shorting opportunities ever”, said Lou Kerner, a partner at Flight VC who invests in the cryptocurrency. “You have a lot of zealotry, and a lot of people, including me, who think it’s the greatest thing to ever happen in the history of mankind. You have a lot of people who think it’s a bubble and a Ponzi scheme. It turns out both of them can’t be right.”

Don’t get me wrong, it remains my view that BTC is nothing more than a global pyramid scheme and bubble. It will die when it gets too big to succeed, threatening the tax base of every sovereign government on earth.

The problem with shorting BTC is the same problem with buying it. There is absolutely no way to know when that is.

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About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.