Iron ore market balance tips heavily bearish

Advertisement

Some numbers today on bulk commodity third quarter shipments. Via UBS, first BHP:

Iron ore shipments for the quarter from WAIO are forecast to be down ~11% sequentially at 63.6Mt (100% basis) based on vessel movements. This reflects scheduled port maintenance on BHP’s berths during the quarter at Port Hedland. Global iron ore production (equity) is estimated at 56.8Mt, down 6% sequentially, and down 1% y/y reflecting the fire at Mt Whaleback and hence reduced operating rates.

Coal production volumes for the quarter are forecast to be up 12% versus the June quarter at ~18.7Mt. We expect met coal production to drive the increase as production was impacted by Cyclone Debbie in the June quarter. Thermal coal production is seen down 10% sequentially driven by NSW Coal.

The full text of this article is available to MacroBusiness subscribers

$1 for your first month, then:
Cancel at any time through our billing provider, Stripe
About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.