The New Zealand National Government’s single-minded focus on solving Auckland’s housing crisis by boosting supply continues to fail.
Today, Statistics New Zealand released figures showing that despite a big lift in Auckland dwelling consents in August, new supply continues to fall well short of immigration-driven demand.
There were 1,184 dwelling consents issued across Auckland in August – driven by a big uplift in the volatile units and apartments segment – but only 10,265 consents issued over the year:
Whereas for New Zealand as a whole, there were 3,166 new homes consents issued in August and 30,736 consents issued over the year. This compares to previous peaks of 33,251 in the June 2004 year and 40,025 in the February 1974 year:
None of this is enough to offset New Zealand’s rampant immigration-fueled population growth, whereby 72,305 net migrants have landed over the past year (36,650 in Auckland):
Driving a population gain nationally of 100,500 people (circa 45,000 in Auckland):
A recent report from CoreLogic claimed that actual dwelling construction in Auckland is running at roughly half its required rate:
Less than half the number of new homes that Auckland needed last year were actually built, according to property data company CoreLogic.
“Our analysis looked behind the building consents data to reveal what’s really going on and the picture isn’t particularly pretty,” CoreLogic’s Head of Research Nick Goodall said.
CoreLogic’s Property Market & Economic Update Report for July/August found that population projections for Auckland suggested 13,500 new homes need to be built in the city each year, but less than 6000 were built last year.
“The housing gap is bigger than is being talked about,” Goodall said…
“Our own analysis has shown that while Auckland consents increased by almost 10,000 in the past year, the housing stock increased by less than 6000 dwellings.
So clearly, Auckland’s already chronic housing shortage is worsening by the month.
At the moment this is not filtering through to price growth, thanks to the RBNZ’s macro-prudential LVR restrictions:
However, the structural factors of mass immigration combined with deficient dwelling supply does not auger well for the future.
