NZ readies to toss its realty/immigration government

Here’s what the future looks like for any enterprising Australian politician, via the AFR:

Kiwi Prime Minister Bill English looked like a shoo-in for re-election a month ago.

Having taken over from the extraordinarily popular John Key in December, his National Party was polling 47 per cent, with Labour languishing on just 24 per cent. Under New Zealand’s mixed member proportional (MMP) electoral system in which majority parties rely on smaller ones for confidence and supply, it looked like the government would barely change.

Then, on July 31, Labour’s leader Andrew Little suddenly stepped down to be replaced by 37-year-old Jacinda Ardern. In the first One News Colmar Brunton Poll since she took the reins, Labour’s vote has jumped up by staggering 13 points to 37 per cent. Even worse for English, while only 6 per cent of Kiwis wanted Little as prime minister, 30 per cent wanted Ardern.

Despite the National-led government delivering budget surpluses, consistent 3 plus per cent economic growth and a 4.8 per cent unemployment rate, what has been dubbed “Jacindamania” has swept the country. Ardern is swamped by voters whereever she goes. Yet despite her increased lead, in most polls, public and private, between 60 and 65 per cent of those questioned think the country is going in the right direction. For Australians, it looks a lot like Kevin Rudd’s 2007 election where voters want more of the same, but maybe run by someone different with a slightly broader social agenda.

True but the swing against the ponzi-growth obsessed government was on well before that and its drivers are very obvious in the rise of the sustainable immigration and house price sensitive platforms of The Greens and NZ First:

All Jacindamania has done is rally those trends under the Labour banner with the same policies and a charming albeit toothy smile.

The very stupid reigning Nationals, led by the formerly astute immigration/housing sensitive turned stupid Bill English, sound positively barren by comparison, at The Australian:

New Zealand Prime Minister Bill English launched his National Party’s campaign for re-election yesterday with a warning that the Labour opposition would destroy nine years of economic success.

Speaking to a crowd of about 2500 in west Auckland four weeks before the September election, Mr English focused on his government’s achievements over three terms, saying the Nationals had steered New Zealand through the global financial crisis, devastating earthquakes and spiralling debt.

“Tomorrow morning, compared to five years ago, 60,000 fewer children will wake up in a household dependent on a benefit. And one big reason is because in a strong economy, their parents can get a job,” Mr English said.

It ain’t over until NZ First chooses a side to rule with but Labour appears the front runner unless the Nationals abandon heir policy platform.

There is NO DOUBT that a respectable face emblazoned upon the same immigration cuts/house price policy agenda would completely wipe the floor in Australia.

Comments

  1. Great, more demand for Australian houses, education & everything from foreigners! We’re a winner!

  2. Who will adopt that said sane policy though. Unlike NZ we have ON to thank for derailing the conversation so actually voting for her is probably the only path that will get us there.

    Hate to say it but SAP really lacks from a broad public appeal. Most won’t even know what it stands for. The Affordable Housing party however will probably raise a few eyebrows and get a few free kicks.

    • SAP have next to no brand recognition. Aussies are extremely novelty-averse when it comes to politics. We’ve been known to hold on to governments a term or two longer than they deserve, we usually vote for the status quo in referenda.
      SAP will have to market themselves much more frequently and energetically than at present. They can’t afford to wait for elections to be declared before they start campaigning.

      • Correct. The best hope is that one of the major parties sees sense and adopts some of those policies.

  3. The Nationals government is not going to be tossed. They are still well ahead in the polls, as shown by your own graph!

    It’s luck for the Liberals there’s no one in the wings of Australian Labor to replace that unpopular Shorten man.

    • Jane – look at NZ First. They may well be the kingmaker and are dead set against the neoliberal high immigration policy of the Nationals. That’s where the action is.

    • Haha…
      Oppositions in Australia don’t win elections, government lose them.
      This government is cooked. Completely profoundly, absolutely.

      The Libs are DEAD DEAD DEAD DEAD…..

  4. Shows how stupid the left wing is: they kept saying that Gillard is unpopular because she is a female!

    Apparently her unpopularity had nothing to do with her lies and anti-poor policies.

  5. kiwikarynMEMBER

    If Ardern gets in she will be our 3rd female Prime Minister. But NZers dont like to change Govt very often, since they’ve only done it once in the last 18 years. It could be that time again, maybe our collective memory is only 9 years long.

  6. john.denticeMEMBER

    Labour could well become the next Govt, supported by NZ First. The above poll shows a momentum shift and it will be interesting to see if it continues which I think it might.

    The Greens have imploded and a number of them have changed from the extreme left to the moderate left. More may do the same if the Greens continue to poll well below the 5% threshold without an electorate seat so as not to waste their Left vote.

    Likewise, many marginal National voters may now change their vote to the Centre Left given that the prospect of the extreme leftist Greens entering Government as a partner seem to be diminishing.

    The big winner, of course is Winston who, like the wily crook he is, will go with whoever offers him the most.

    There are several issues that many NZer’s are upset about (immigration, Chinese water exports, house prices – unless you own one, environmental degradation, foreign asset purchases, etc) and after 9 years in power, National sounds hollow in creating new policies to address these only now.

    And sometimes, people just want a change.

    Cheers
    John

    • I hadnt heard about that water thing. $40k for 200 cubic metres of water a day? Baby, build a pipeline to Australia. We can ditch our desal plants and live the high life next drought.

      I remember years ago watching a youtube video where a NZ bloke was showing how to build a high pressure hose system using no electricity. It was one of those where you flow it down the hill, and a portion of the water shoots out the top while the rest is compressed to be squirted out the main nozel. I recall thinking “fuck me, they have so much water they can throw away half of it like this?”. Ditto some mob in Alaska or Canada or something that built a giant ice sculpture by leaving a bore tap running all winter.

    • Apparently, Winston hates English and vice versa. I read that when the Nationals expelled Peters, it was English who seconded the motion.

  7. Is is clear that Ardern is promising reduced immigration? I haven’t seen any mention of it. Little did for a while but then chickened out (as pointed out by MB).

    We’ll see how Ardern’s poll numbers go when it comes to the crunch. Look at Macron.

  8. Ardern doesn’t even reach the lowly height of the term lightweight. She has achieved precisely zero in her political career.
    The classic University > Parliamentary Staffer > MP career path, with no knowledge of the outside world or economics for that matter.

  9. Above article posted at … http://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/2017/08/nationals_campaign_launch-2.html/comment-page-1#comment-2004755 … and … http://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/2017/08/reti_18_ahead_of_jones.html/comment-page-1#comment-2004761 … with numerous further postings.

    The New Zealand Government is in for a massive thrashing election day 23 September … and deservedly so.

    Check out the GONE GONE GOING section at http://www.PerformanceUrbanPlanning.org to get a sense of the history to it all.

    The tipping point was the Newshub Reid Research Issues Poll of 28 May 2016 ‘John Keys Government fails New Zealanders on housing.’

    Just watch those lying politicians !

    • Living in a fantasy world Hugh if you think the Labour party is going to do anything sensible about housing.

      Do you forget the last Labour government that had the NZ economy in recession pre-GFC and the tradeables sector in recession from 2006?

      • kiwikarynMEMBER

        The Labour response to housing is to tax everyone more so they can hand out more money to beneficiaries via the Accommodation Supplement, and maybe build a few more state houses. It wont solve anything other than to make rents increase for everyone (seeing as the benefit payment is really a landlord subsidy) but the masses will be mollified.

    • Kiwiblog is where the Kiwi Tories hang out. in particular the Mad Muldoonist wing of it.

      Note in particular just how rude, ignorant and arrogant they are. I am indeed blessed with my adversaries. They are just so stupid.

      This should really be the theme song for their pathetic election campaign …

      WATERLOO ~ Stonewall Jackson (1959) – YouTube

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_-QQI6lb_Hg

      V … A decasde of Tory decption and incompetence is more than enough. Check out my archival website Performance Urban Planning … and draw your own conclusions.