Slumping commodity prices foreshadows falling national income
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The RBA has released its commodity price index for June, which registered another sharp 4.3% decline in SDR (currency weighted) terms – the key determinant of the terms-of-trade – and a 5.3% fall in Australian dollar terms:
Preliminary estimates for June indicate that the index decreased by 4.3 per cent (on a monthly average basis) in SDR terms, after decreasing by 7.2 per cent in May (revised). The decrease was led by declines in iron ore and coking coal prices. The rural subindex increased in the month, while the base metals subindex declined. In Australian dollar terms, the index decreased by 5.3 per cent in June.
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About the author

Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness.
Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.
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