Via Citi:
Today’s release of a series of emails by Donald Trump Jr., President Trump’s son, and the subsequent reaction by financial markets and in the news media has again highlighted one of this year’s key political risks: concerns about durability of the Trump Administration, and its ability to pass the pro-business legislative agenda that had underpinned investor confidence earlier this year.
We have long been skeptical about the “Trump Bump”, partly based on our view that the investigations undertaken by the FBI Special Prosecutor over collusion allegations could distract the Administration, but mainly due to our expectation the Congress would find it difficult to reach agreement quickly. But we have emphasized that we regarded impeachment as unlikely, for various reasons. These include the vagueness of the process and indeed the absence of evidence of “high crimes and misdemeanors”, as the US Constitution underscores.
