One Nation morons power ahead in polls

Yesterday we had One Nation more popular than the Greens by its largest margin ever in Newspoll:

Today Essential has it on a tear as well, leveling with the lost Greens:

This despite bubbling, scandals, spastic policy positions and openly moronic candidates.

It’s a simple and very clear message to all concerned: cut immigration.

Houses and Holes
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Comments

  1. A 1% rise as “on a tear”? Seriously, your usually decent analysis goes out the window when it comes to One Nation and polls, Mr Holes. And it doesn’t support your argument that current immigration levels are electoral poison.

    • The tear comment was for Essential, up 50% in a month…

      ON breaking to new high in NP is not insignificant either given the levels of bad press it’s gotten recently.

      It’s a single issue party. What idea does the rise support? That fish tastes better with lemon juice?

      • So you suspect that it will linearly increase from that position forward? I doubt it.
        Plus ONP was at 8% in April, so that massive rise is 1% in two months (hardly on a tear). Essential Research uses a rolling polling method (the past two weeks count). So a dip that they took in May (when all the dodgy stuff was in the news) looks more significant because it get spread over a few weeks (It also explains why the majors rise and fall slower too).
        I know it doesn’t fit with your narrative but it is still the truth.

      • FiftiesFibroShack

        “What idea does the rise support?”

        The recent spate of terror attacks are the reason for the ON poll bounce.

      • The recent spate of terror attacks are the reason for the ON poll bounce.

        Maybe I imagined it, but there was a lull in PH news items while the terror attacks were being washed out of the news cycle. Anyone watching the UK would have come to the conclusion that they have made a complete pig’s ear out of open door immigration, and they have absolutely no idea about what to do with the terrorist sleeper cells all over the country. I bet a few in Manchester and London would be giving PH the thumbs up as well. Votes for ON are pure exasperation about the hopelessness of the current political systems. #tweetalittleprayer

        Interesting that the latest London attack at Finsbury looks like a gift to the May govt. Very convenient. Now they can say that it has nothing to do with ideologies or religions. Terror is a new mysterious bad thing that is caused by the internet and people having too much freedom. The only way forward is to crack down on free speech and crank up the nanny laws.

      • Alternatively, in the context of a poll reported to the nearest whole number percentage point, it requires 9 people to change what they say when they pick up the phone.

  2. I think the rise in PHON polling is leakage from the LNP.
    Peolpe giving up on Turnbull Abbott, Dutton and the whole disfunctional Party.
    PHON will do well as the LNP disintergrates.

    • I will be voting ON this time for the same reason. I hope she smashes it to send a proper message

    • Spot on, I’d vote for them to spite The Greens and their politically correct horsehit. The 1 thing I like about the greens is transparency around donations and trying to prevent foreign control of the nation. But otherwise they are lost.

      • mild colonial

        And commitment to addrssing the most critical issue of our time, global warming. The one that will see us all dead if we dont restructure our society to address it.

      • HadronCollision

        Emailed my local member Kevin Hogan about a Federal ICAC, the Greens’ bill, and removal of all donations and funding by taxpayer.

        He told me his personal position was that he was in support of all that

        I wonder how many other (seemingly principled) backbenchers would support those Greens changes

        (Along with removal of the tampon tax, good grief what an own goal by Labor)

    • I was a lifeling Labor voter, but changed over the last few years and now I’m with Danny and Gavin.

      The place needs a fucking reset. If I have to vote for that idiot woman and her ratbag crew to get the point across to the major parties that I want immigration cut, well, that’s what I’ll do.

      John Howard is a toad, and our worst ever PM by far, but if he came back with a zero immigration policy I’d vote for him for one term. Excessive immigration is our biggest problem, and it outweighs everything else in my voting decision.

      • I am not sure that Howard dumbed down Aussie degrees, put in a GP tax, gave out Aussie passports for doing a bloody cooking course, and cut the company tax rates.

        Heck, I doubt Howard gave out 457 visas to KFC.

      • HadronCollision

        I’ll tell you what as well, ol buddy Jacob, he didn’t ban hi flow showers either.

        What a saint.

  3. Yes it’s a shame the unskilled migrant intake debate is being marginalised to One Nation when it should be a much broader economic and social debate in the two main parties.

    Take the 172,0000* 457 / or new temporary skilled visas of which only 55% are ‘skilled’ – that’s only a tiny fraction of the total issue..
    (* As at September 30, 2016 there were 172,787 457 visa holders – 95,757 workers in Australia on primary 457 visas and 76,430 secondary visa holders (members of their family).

    Of which only 30% or 30,000 are genuinely ‘highly skilled’ – if that..

    Where is the mainstream debate about the 1.96 million temporary visa holders… ??

    ‘International students’, Nz SCV back door, working holiday, special visa, rural and working holiday rackets, bridging visa rackets, etc.

    Almost all unskilled, almost all working, most illegally..

    Then add on another 400,000 (ABF say 5% of the 8 million tourist arrivals) – also here only to work illegally.
    Then add on 85,000 overstayers.
    => 2.4 million unskilled third world migrant guestworkers..

    Look at the economics..
    They (in total, the entire 2.4 million) only bring in $4.4 billion in ‘declared funds’ usually frauded.

    They form a $105 billion largely underground & untaxed economy.
    Fake ID, blackmarket labour services, cash in hand, massive rorting & rackets, little or no taxation or social or net economic contribution.
    They produce Remittances and onshore to offshore criminal agent procurer repayment outflows of over $36 billion – (Austrac, World Bank Report 2016) = a negative -2% GDP impact.

    We have 1.1 million Australians unemployed.
    Another 1.1 million seeking work.
    Housing affordability crisis
    Education destroyed as a ‘visa work illegally’ racket
    Congestion, corruption, squalor, lack of assimilation.

    Isn’t that the central issue ?
    That’s what should be the number one issue in both mainstream parties (like in New Zealand facing similar issues due to NZ selling itself as a third world migrant transit stop for back door entry into Australia).

    Good goverment (or mainstream opposition) to the reality that our visa system as well as migrant intake is being systemically rorted top to bottom ~ is completely missing.

    Time for the Royal Commission into the great Australian third world temporary & tourist migrant guestworker visa racket.

      • HadronCollision

        He should become a member because he is persistent? That doesn’t make sense (no offence)

    • One nation is actually counter-productive for the whole immigration/457/big Australia debate.

      No big party will now touch the topic of immigration because they will be seen as racist.

      • Yep – was talking to a long long standing Greenie on the weekend and they confirmed that the Greens are not touching immigration because they don’t want to be associated with “racists”.

        There will be no rational debate about immigration because Pauline is salting the earth.

        All we will get is Dutton grandstanding about vague stuff like “values” that keeps the shock jocks happy while maintaining immigration levels at circa 200,000

        Pauline will of course keep winning a handful of senate seats but as long as the other parties are go go go for high rates of immigration (ALP, LP and NP) or too chicken to say anything (the Greens) high rates is what we will have.

      • “confirmed that the Greens are not touching immigration because they don’t want to be associated with “racists”.”

        This could be the very reason “it” Hanson has the airtime so much.
        Stain and smear *any* talk of immigration cuts with sheet like PH and no one will dare question current excessive immigration policies

      • By that logic if I wanted immigration at two million a year I could call them Hitler, redneck, etc. The left is literally insane.

        Who on earth would ever think of the Greens as racist? Any accusations would just look ridiculous. This is obviously a part of some rigid, set in stone ideology. Oh, they also take money from the cfmeu. So that’s probably it too.

      • I do not think so. Calling Trump fans “deplorable” did not stop him from becoming president. And a few years ago Sarah Palin wore a t-shirt saying “Nowhere, Alaska”.

        Water off a duck’s back.

      • Terror Australis

        You win the internet today.

        Until their 1998 national conference the Australian Greens had an official policy position of ZERO NET immigration.

        When Hansons party came to the stage in Qld that year it was decided within the Greens to be necessary to pivot to a more “nuanced” position on population policy.

        The alternative would have been the press tying them to an overtly racist party and subsequent electoral oblivion.

        Hanson is the enemy of any mature debate around population policy.

  4. I think Australia could do a lot worse than having ON wield a little more power in parliament….

    who knows, perhaps even the NOM intake could be cut! IMAGINE!

  5. One Nation is criticised for being a bunch of morons. They seem little worse than the L/NP – is Pauline dumber than Dutton? Are you a betting person?

    ON is a haven for cultural conservatives threatened by out of control immigration. Do not underestimate just how many voters are. LvO can rail about the bad economics of migration, but he would have more purchase discussing the destruction of social cohesion and wouldn’t need any confusing chart thingys to make his case.

    • DingwallMEMBER

      Based on the current state of persons filling roles as politicians, there is only dumb and dumber.

    • The right wing radio host Mr Tom Elliott has ranted against excessive immigration for longer than I have but he mentions traffic jams rather than overpriced houses – probably because he knows that a lot of voters love the real estate bubble.

      We should rant against every problem caused by mass immigration and avoid mentioning the real estate bubble.

    • i dont see why theyre any dumber than labor or the liberal party either, or the greens. obviously their position on climate change is difficult to swallow but at least theyre anti the ponzi, the rest of their policies suck but mostly so do labor/liberals.

    • Would have thought the average IQ of Liberal party parliamentarians has risen significantly this year, with Bernardi defecting.

    • Anyone having been to gaol for electoral fraud, willing to sail that close to the wind again is pretty dumb in my book. Even to the point of having the hominid potato that is Peter Dutton at very short odds for a game of scrabble.

    • FiftiesFibroShack

      “LvO can rail about the bad economics of migration, but he would have more purchase discussing the destruction of social cohesion and wouldn’t need any confusing chart thingys to make his case.”

      Then he’d be just be another culture warrior shouting in the echo chamber. MB would become popular (well, more popular) with the dingotwitter types and lose credibility it has with people that actually have a chance of making policy changes.

    • The only person in politics who is probably dumber than poor Pauline is Abbott. But at least Pauline doesn’t seem beholden to vested interests so extra points to her.

  6. The fake right wing is done for. 😃

    Now Pauline needs to come up with ways of making things too expensive for low-wage foreigners:

    Upgrade Medicare cards to act as train tickets and raise the price of travel using myki (instead of Medicare card) to $35/day.

  7. Note the 95% confidence interval of an event with 10% probability on a sample size of 1790 – roughly 1.6%, wider if there is the possibility of sampling bias, for example, if regional Queenslanders have different voting patterns to Melbournians, or boomers vote differently to millennials and the difference isn’t fully accounted for in the survey design.

    • Ronin8317MEMBER

      Interesting that they’re lowering interest rate on P&I by 0.08%, while interest only is up 0.34%. They really want those IO loan to be refinanced as P&I.

      • Kind of suggests their internal forecasting sees zero growth or worse in the near future, at least for a chunk of the houses they’ve lent against.

    • Shit, eh? Aussie property speculators can’t be feeling very well loved at the moment. The places they can turn to for cheap money to continue their little mini ponzi schemes are disappearing by the day. It’ll be 50 LVR for investor loans at every lender before you know it.

      Bwahahahahahaha! 🙂

  8. – Seems more and more australians are “getting the message”. I hope one Mr. Turnbull is listening to what the polls are telling him.

  9. SchillersMEMBER

    Cannot see an increase in ON voting intentions translating to seats in the lower house. Which is the main game after all. Possibly one in north QLD. At the 2016 federal election ON’s preferences went 50-50 to the two major parties. This is unlikely to change, imo. Neither Labour nor the Coalition will dare preference ON. Not after the debacle at last WA state election.
    The key for the government is the fall in their primary vote. Only two things will get it back above 40 (and they need both of them to happen): A clear signal that current immigration levels are too high and must be temporarily wound back and secondly for the RWNJobs in the party to piss off and die.
    Any chance of either of these happening? I shudder to think.

  10. Righteous globalist righties pilloried the Don from every angle they could, but he got in anyway. Those that voted for him must’ve felt they had no choice after being ignored for so long. They weren’t being listened to & were desperate for change – come what may!

    You yourself rally for change daily, you point out grubby transgressions from mainstream ministers almost daily & yet you feel name calling those outside the tent is valid? Safe to say most on MB want it – & it’s Never coming! What good has come from polishing this pack of deaf, spastic moron thieving turds over & over? Are they really any more refined because they’re cloistered inside the tent in shinier suits?? It’s been well beyond a sick joke for ages.

    Desperation clogs thinking & desperate times call for desperate actions…… I hope Oz doesn’t have to get that desperate, but if it happens I don’t know that you can blame the people. The frog in the pot is waking up!!

  11. Only unsophisticated dummies vote for ON. Australians are all sexy property investors and are very cosmopolitan and highly, highly, extremely intelligent and discerning.

  12. I don’t have a landline phone. Do you?
    The poll may reflect the changing demographics of landline ownership. Old people. Poor people. Country folk.
    I don’t know anyone under 40 with a landline. I know a lot of under 40 green/labor voters though.

    • Like many, my ISP provides a fixed line phone, but I don’t have it plugged in since I saved on my monthly charge by electing for pay as you go fixed line calls knowing I wont make any. I don’t even know the phone number though I did see it once when I was first connected. I think you are on to something here, and that would definately skew the figures from a inter-generational technology gap perspective! (Though not sure how labor do some well given all the grumpy old farts I know are LNP or ON).

    • HadronCollision

      Left the copper hanging out of the concrete near the house so the dog can chew on it and get a zap for a laugh

    • Terror Australis

      Thats not exactly a secret.
      Reputable polling firms adjust their data collection methods to compensate for “mobile-only” telephone respondents.

      Proof is in the pudding.
      At last 4 Fed elections the final Newspoll before polling day accurately predicted the 2PP vote within a half percentage point.

      I wouldn’t put Essential in the same class as Newspoll but they are still one of the better outfits.

  13. The candidates may be morons but I’ll vote for them as long as they support ordinary property millionaire mums and dads with taxable incomes of less than 80k trying to get ahead.