Fortescue’s discounting disaster continues

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Via UBS:

Innovation projects for FY 18 announced

FMG has provided an update on its continued investment in projects to improve safety, productivity and efficiency. Productivity initiatives to include: 1) further roll-out of autonomous haulage technology (AHS or driverless trucks) at the Solomon Hub, 2) rollout of AHS across the Chichester Hub from FY 18 (~100 trucks to be converted to AHS), and 3) trial of an overland conveyor. These initiatives are targeted at combatting the issue of rising costs associated with rising strip ratios. The investment is over 3 years (FY 18-20) and while not quantified today, is expected to be within the sustaining capital spend which we assume rises from US$2/t in FY 17 to US$3.00-3.50/t in FY 18 and long run of US$4/t. The biggest issue around an investment in FMG today is the discount for low grade iron ore and whether it is structural or cyclical. We estimate a 25% discount is priced into the stock today.

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About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.