Anyone that lives in Sydney or Melbourne will have experienced the crippling rise in congestion on our transport networks first hand. Morning and evening peaks now run for hours, traffic is forever thick on the weekends, and the time taken to travel from point A to point B now takes longer than ever.
Over the weekend, The Australian confirmed what we living in the big cities already know: commuting is fast becoming a nightmare:
The number of vehicles travelling in Australian cities has grown almost tenfold in the past 70 years and, with exponential population growth not being met with adequate road infrastructure upgrades, traffic speeds are crawling to a standstill…
Last year, a report from the Committee for Economic Development of Australia said congestion could cost the nation more than $50 billion in lost productivity by 2031 unless addressed.
The latest congestion bill was $16.5bn in 2015.
Congestion levels on major arterial roads are at a high, with most cities suffering much slower travel times and lower average speeds than previously recorded…
Sydney, which last year was named the nation’s most congested city by peak transport body Austroads, has seen significant reductions in average speeds even since 2011. The population of Greater Sydney has risen by almost 300,000 people during that time, reaching almost five million…
Melbourne is growing by 2000 new drivers each week, with more than 200,000 vehicles travelling across the West Gate Bridge between the CBD and western suburbs each day…
Between 2006 and 2013, speeds on Melbourne’s major arterial roads have slowed by an average of 13km/h, with speeds on the West Gate Freeway entry ramp from Williamstown Road slowing to half the speed limit of 100km/h during morning peak hours…
The primary culprit is pretty obvious for those that care to look: the explosion in population growth, which has seen Melbourne add one million people over the past 12 years (a 27% increase) and Sydney add 821,000 people (a 20% increase):
In October last year, Infrastructure Partnerships Australia (IPA) released a report that used Uber driver information to measure “road network performance” in Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane and Perth to drill down into average travel times at different hours of the day.
The results were based on the following number of drivers in each city:
And found that “efficiency” pretty much followed the level of population growth:
In Melbourne, which is the population ponzi king, travel times have worsened materially, followed by Sydney, which has also experienced strong population growth. Brisbane only experienced a minor worsening in travel times. Whereas in Perth, where population growth has cratered, travel times have actually improved.
The Bureau of Infrastructure and Regional Economics has also forecast soaring costs of congestion, particularly in Sydney and Melbourne, over the next 15 years:
The underlying driver of this population growth and rising congestion is the ‘Big Australia’ mass immigration program being run by the federal government and supported by the three major political parties – the Coalition, Labor and The Greens.
While net overseas migration (NOM) has fluctuated as long-stay temporary migrants have come and gone, the fact remains that Australia’s immigration settings are set at turbo-charged levels and are projected to remain so for decades to come, thus maintaining Australia’s population growth at around 400,000 people a year – equivalent to adding a Canberra to Australia’s population:
Underpinning this high NOM is Australia’s permanent migration program, which is currently 200,000 a year, comprising:
- 128,550 Skill stream places (of which half includes skilled migrant’s family members);
- 57,400 Family stream places;
- 308 Special Eligibility stream places; and
- 13,750 Humanitarian places.
This permanent migration program was ramped-up massively from the early-2000s, as shown in the next chart:
Accordingly, in the 16 years to 2016, Australia’s net overseas migration (NOM) rocketed to an annual average of 200,000 people a year – almost triple the historical average of around 70,000 people a year.
As shown in the next chart, which comes from the Productivity Commission’s (PC) recent Migrant Intake into Australia report, 86% of immigrants lived in the major cities of Australia in 2011, whereas only 65% of the Australian-born population did: