Sunday Chartfest May 14, 2017

Another collection gleaned from a week wading through Twitter, a load of media articles and research, with a lead off on the budget. 

Australia’s 2017 Budget

 

The forecast incomings

 

The Balances & Assumptions

 

The voyage to a Budget Surplus…….

 

Mining Investment and Exports

 

Net debt forecasts and their evolution

 

AUSTRALIA BANKS & MACRO and NEW ZEALAND

 

Australian banks and their stupendous growth

 

CPI & House Prices (look familiar?)

 

The stresses they faced during the GFC

 

The estimated impact of the budget levy on the big 5

 

10 Year CPI (Creamed for Education, Health & Houses)

 

FIRB & Real Estate 2015-16

 

Australian Household Consumption Evolution

DFA Household Confidence

 

Interest only lending and Australian mortgages

 

DFA Australian mortgage stressed localities

 

Kiwi Population Ponzi

 

Aussie Bonds

 

Australian Foreign Investment change 2011-2016 (why Belgium, Luxembourg, Bermuda?)

 

Household Savings – past and projected (mortgages and non trade-able gouging?)

 

Return to budget surplus forecasts (and actuals)

 

Wage Price Index forecasts 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CHINA

 

China Debt/GDP…..

 

 

China Shadow Banks Growth

 

Chinese 10Yr Yields

 

China CPI

 

China Credit Growth

 

Chinese Exports & Imports

 

China FAI

 

China Liquidity Support

 

China Short Term Rates 1

 

China Short Term Rates 2

 

China loans & deposits

 

China Offshore purchases

 

 

 

 

 

 

ASIA

 

Aging Impact on GDP – with and without migration

 

Japan Employment & Wages

 

Asian Bonds & QE

 

North Korea coal to China

 

 

 

 

 

AMERICAS

 

United States CPI

 

United States recession probability

 

United States retail sales

 

United States Health Insurance

 

US Changes in Infrastructure Spending by State 2000-2014

 

Prime working age Americans

 

US Auto sales and Loans

 

Changes in US CPI factors over time

 

 

 

 

 

EUROPE

 

House Prices on a tear – Netherlands

 

Primary Surplus Europe

 

Selected Euro Manufacturing

 

Industrial Production & New Manufacturing Orders PMI – France

 

Labour underutilisation – Eurozone

 

Re-Nationalising sentiment – United Kingdom

 

UK Income tax – top 1% and adults paying

 

Hiring & Firing in Greece

 

Implications of Soft and Hard Brexit

 

Sovereign debt – Spanish and Italian banks

 

UK FDI and financial services

 

UK income distribution (and the idea of raising taxes on those earning more than 80K is Marxism?)

 

Youth unemployment – Euro nations

 

 

 

 

 

COMMODITIES

 

Financialised Thermal Coal

 

Cocoa takes a kicking

 

Silver

 

Deepwater crude cost

 

Global Vegetable Oil

 

Global Wheat Production

 

Wheat stockpiles

 

Hazelnut Production

 

Liquid Fuels demand growth

 

New LNG projects by size and start date

 

Energy discoveries since 2015

 

Future production Oil & Gas US & Asia

 

OPEC Compliance

 

OPEC Production 1Q 2017

 

 

 

 

 

CAPITAL MARKETS

 

Bond market sentiment

 

Bond funds and Equities Funds since the GFC

 

Global Equity Volatility

 

The rise of the non-banks

 

Speculation in various asset classes

 

 

 

 

 

GLOBAL MACRO

 

Global Income Distribution

 

Growth Projection IMF

 

Effective Manufacturing Tariffs – Major Economies

 

China & US Manufacturing PMI

 

Chinese credit growth in relation to other recent credit crash phenomena…

 

China outbound investment 2005-2016

 

Corporate Leverage

 

Foreign Value Added to Exports 2011 (…and are we going backwards?)

 

Global Business Confidence

 

Evolving Forecasts – Global Growth

 

Household debt – Various Nations

 

Household Incomes US and EU 1991-2010

 

Middle Income Houses – US and selected EU

 

Household Income Growth since 1980 – selected developed nations

 

Per Capita Income at Working Age Population Peak – selected nations

 

Travel and Tourism reliance

 

Global GDP per square kilometre

 

 

 

 

 

…and Furthermore…

 

The cost of a ‘Cheap night out’ – various global cities….

 

Credit to GDP (14 developed world nations) since 1870

 

Doubling of GDP Per Capita – selected nations

 

Pharmaceutical spend 2014 – selected developed nations

 

Global Inequality

 

Poverty Reduction – selected developed nations

 

Global Income Distribution over time

 

GDP over time by region

 

Government School Spending % of GDP 2013

 

Greenhouse Emissions 1990-2015

 

Global Holiday Destinations by Visitors

 

Economies Larger than California

 

Low paying college majors in the US

 

Urban concentration

 

Social Housing – various nations

 

The Starbucks index

 

Mars exploration history

 

 

Comments

  1. Highrise Harry’s comments regarding bringing even more immigrants in to support apartment prices rings true. Welcome to the corporate state.

  2. For those keeping track, May 13 auction volumes / clearance rates were 778 / 79% and 937 / 78% for Sydney and Melbs respectively.

  3. Paddy Finucane

    Epic set of charts Gunna. Amazing, something for everyone. Sort of tell a story all on their own.

    But there must be 70 or 80 of the bastards how do you expect anyone to absorb it all, and what the fuck did you do with the week. Just collect charts?

    Greetings from StP. Go back to writing

    • On the other hand, a “cheap night out” in Tokyo surely isn’t that expensive. Plenty of cheap good restaurant food to start with.

    • GunnamattaMEMBER

      Should anyone ever find themselves in need of coffee in Moscow you will find an outfit almost everywhere by the name of ‘Shokoladnitsa’ who will do quite plausible coffee at about 2/3 that price

  4. TailorTrashMEMBER

    Great Gunna …….charts without comment can say so much ……….
    ….those budget deficit forecasts remind me of the kinds of forecast PowerPoint charts that terminated many a career prematurely in multinational land ……obviously our politicians don’t have to worry about such pesky things as ……..accountability …………..good job the punters don’t understand such things …………Onya Straya !!

  5. For ‘The Economies Larger Than California’ chart, would I be right in guessing that if we removed finance from the UK, and Germany wasn’t profiteering from the Euro setup, that they would be end up being smaller than California?

  6. haroldusMEMBER

    Low paying college majors in the US

    Music LOL.

    Don’t do it. Don’t let your kids do it.

    “My name is haroldus and I am a guitarist.

    When i learnt the blues riff it was a rush. I wanted more.

    I started chugging and when I did the rhythm to Keep Your Hands to Yourself by the Georgia Satellites I felt bulletproof.

    Then i learnt the riff to stairway. then born to be wild.

    I first saw TAB on the internet, and I knew I had to try it.

    I started detuning and doing Nirvana covers. And I did a bit of Gunners. Actually can you edit that out? I don’t want my mum to know that.

    I even got a police record. But I gave it away when sting went solo.

    My nadir was fusion. ….. I was experimenting with this fretless bass guy. We got into some heavy modes. Lydian, myxolydian, phrygian. We even did locrian a couple of times, we didn’t give a fuck. We just wanted to push the envelope. I’m not proud now, but at the time it felt so .. right

    Sorry I can’t talk about it any more.

    It’s all I can do these days to play Stand By Me on an acoustic.

    Please. Just don’t let your kids do guitar.

    My name is haroldus and I am a guitarist.

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      My name is Wilbur and I’m a guitaraholic.

      It was probably worst for me when I was just starting to lurk around dingy low-rent downtown stores looking to score sheet-music to Doctor Who and Magnum PI. That was when I first new I had a problem. But I couldn’t stop there. Next stop was fingering Greensleeves and jamming to Traffic. And Blur.

      I’m sorry. I’m just so sorry. I don’t expect any of you to forgive me – there’s no excuse, especially not for when I was posting about how Oasis’s live recordings had so much more depth than their studio work. Please don’t telll my music therapist I said that.

      My name is Wilbur and I’m a guitaraholic.

      • haroldusMEMBER

        I hear ya brother. Often when I’m practicing the opening riff to stairway I find myself fingering A minor.

    • GunnamattaMEMBER

      Discovered this in my twitter feed this AM from Nassim Taleb

      At a certain level people have gotta be what they have got to be, and the system which forces them into wage serfdom or to behave like mini corporate fascists just to survive or provide for their families or just to have a comfortable life, needs to face revolution for holding their mundane aspirations to ransom to feed the greed, the bigotry, the condescension, and the outright lies which keeps it alive.

      I too picked up a guitar many times when I was a kid, and wrote and sang songs of protest, and then I realised the music industry too is just another process for channeling money to the elites in exchange for giving them the right choose winners and losers.

      • haroldusMEMBER

        Thanks Gunna. However I think there is little chance of me channeling money anywhere, let alone to the elites.

        As my mate the singer says “If you ain’t made it by 50 you’ll never make it!”

      • GunnamattaMEMBER

        Forget the bullshit about 50. I turned 50 last year and am still working out what my life is about. My inspiration is this guy….

        Enrico Dandolo – https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enrico_Dandolo – I am such an admirer I actually have taken a photo of myself alongside his burial site in the Sancta Sophia in Istanbul.

        He was an evil fucker in many respects, having co-opted the 4th Crusade to attack Byzantium instead of the Holy Land. A life long public servant (albeit from a wealthy background) prior to that.

        But what inspires me is this. He co opted the 4th crusade (lets face – it just a batch of church loving bigots being fronted by self entitled self woshippers and the church, entitled to slaughter those following them, off to give the Islamics of their era a belting) into attacking the Byzantines (who had spent much of a lifetime insulting the Venetians and Dandolo in his bureaucrat phase) . He was a man getting revenge.

        But what really inspires me is this. He led,in person, the assault upon the walls of Constantinople in 2014, as a man in his mid 90s. And what heightens my inspiration to a white hard modicum of respect is that the man was not only in his mid 90s (yes he was somewhere between 90 and 100 years old) but he was stone motherless blind.

        And I figure that if Enrico had to wait until his 90s and his sight was gone to get his revenge and change the course of history, then an average everyday nutter like me (or you if you are another juvenile 50ish punter) may still get the chance to dirk the fates, and the elites, at a moment inconvenient for them.

      • Hey Gunna, I can relate to that article, for example I love working on classic cars and doing panel beating / physical work. Sure it makes sense to outsource it (I even know folks sending cars abroad to cheaper countries with lower wage rates to do it) but that’s cheating. Sure being in IT pays better, but it doesn’t fulfill the soul in the same way.

        When it comes to manufacturing work, lots of it has moved overseas, but I wonder how many would be happy to do menial work in exchange for a guaranteed form of employment that allows them to just get on with life and raising a family? Instead of having to constantly reinvent themselves in the pursuit of fitting into a knowledge worker environment (which is constantly changing year on year).

        I know I find IT tiring for that reason, always having to learn the newest technology and finding the time for it. If I train as a panel beater sure I’m learning new techniques and tools and methods, but the underlying principal remains the same. Unlike IT where suddenly your whole skill set can be thrown out because the newest and greatest programming language has arrived – despite spending years in a particular language.

        Just my 2 cents.

  7. The Traveling Wilbur

    Panic over! Scomo says Lowe says we’re 90% through the capex / terms of trade / wages growth projection failures..

    Well, he can’t be completely wrong… surely it couldn’t get any​ worse! LMAO.

  8. Interesting that Cranbourne has such high mortgage stress! It should be cheap compared with other parts of Melbourne too!

  9. On the bank levy – I’m not sure why the Deutsche chart it assumes it won’t be deductible. There’s no reason why it shouldn’t be.