Sunday Chartfest May 14, 2017

Another collection gleaned from a week wading through Twitter, a load of media articles and research, with a lead off on the budget. 

Australia’s 2017 Budget


The forecast incomings


The Balances & Assumptions


The voyage to a Budget Surplus…….


Mining Investment and Exports


Net debt forecasts and their evolution




Australian banks and their stupendous growth


CPI & House Prices (look familiar?)


The stresses they faced during the GFC


The estimated impact of the budget levy on the big 5


10 Year CPI (Creamed for Education, Health & Houses)


FIRB & Real Estate 2015-16


Australian Household Consumption Evolution

DFA Household Confidence


Interest only lending and Australian mortgages


DFA Australian mortgage stressed localities


Kiwi Population Ponzi


Aussie Bonds


Australian Foreign Investment change 2011-2016 (why Belgium, Luxembourg, Bermuda?)


Household Savings – past and projected (mortgages and non trade-able gouging?)


Return to budget surplus forecasts (and actuals)


Wage Price Index forecasts 









China Debt/GDP…..



China Shadow Banks Growth


Chinese 10Yr Yields


China CPI


China Credit Growth


Chinese Exports & Imports


China FAI


China Liquidity Support


China Short Term Rates 1


China Short Term Rates 2


China loans & deposits


China Offshore purchases









Aging Impact on GDP – with and without migration


Japan Employment & Wages


Asian Bonds & QE


North Korea coal to China








United States CPI


United States recession probability


United States retail sales


United States Health Insurance


US Changes in Infrastructure Spending by State 2000-2014


Prime working age Americans


US Auto sales and Loans


Changes in US CPI factors over time








House Prices on a tear – Netherlands


Primary Surplus Europe


Selected Euro Manufacturing


Industrial Production & New Manufacturing Orders PMI – France


Labour underutilisation – Eurozone


Re-Nationalising sentiment – United Kingdom


UK Income tax – top 1% and adults paying


Hiring & Firing in Greece


Implications of Soft and Hard Brexit


Sovereign debt – Spanish and Italian banks


UK FDI and financial services


UK income distribution (and the idea of raising taxes on those earning more than 80K is Marxism?)


Youth unemployment – Euro nations








Financialised Thermal Coal


Cocoa takes a kicking




Deepwater crude cost


Global Vegetable Oil


Global Wheat Production


Wheat stockpiles


Hazelnut Production


Liquid Fuels demand growth


New LNG projects by size and start date


Energy discoveries since 2015


Future production Oil & Gas US & Asia


OPEC Compliance


OPEC Production 1Q 2017








Bond market sentiment


Bond funds and Equities Funds since the GFC


Global Equity Volatility


The rise of the non-banks


Speculation in various asset classes








Global Income Distribution


Growth Projection IMF


Effective Manufacturing Tariffs – Major Economies


China & US Manufacturing PMI


Chinese credit growth in relation to other recent credit crash phenomena…


China outbound investment 2005-2016


Corporate Leverage


Foreign Value Added to Exports 2011 (…and are we going backwards?)


Global Business Confidence


Evolving Forecasts – Global Growth


Household debt – Various Nations


Household Incomes US and EU 1991-2010


Middle Income Houses – US and selected EU


Household Income Growth since 1980 – selected developed nations


Per Capita Income at Working Age Population Peak – selected nations


Travel and Tourism reliance


Global GDP per square kilometre






…and Furthermore…


The cost of a ‘Cheap night out’ – various global cities….


Credit to GDP (14 developed world nations) since 1870


Doubling of GDP Per Capita – selected nations


Pharmaceutical spend 2014 – selected developed nations


Global Inequality


Poverty Reduction – selected developed nations


Global Income Distribution over time


GDP over time by region


Government School Spending % of GDP 2013


Greenhouse Emissions 1990-2015


Global Holiday Destinations by Visitors


Economies Larger than California


Low paying college majors in the US


Urban concentration


Social Housing – various nations


The Starbucks index


Mars exploration history




  1. Highrise Harry’s comments regarding bringing even more immigrants in to support apartment prices rings true. Welcome to the corporate state.

  2. For those keeping track, May 13 auction volumes / clearance rates were 778 / 79% and 937 / 78% for Sydney and Melbs respectively.

  3. Paddy Finucane

    Epic set of charts Gunna. Amazing, something for everyone. Sort of tell a story all on their own.

    But there must be 70 or 80 of the bastards how do you expect anyone to absorb it all, and what the fuck did you do with the week. Just collect charts?

    Greetings from StP. Go back to writing

    • On the other hand, a “cheap night out” in Tokyo surely isn’t that expensive. Plenty of cheap good restaurant food to start with.

    • GunnamattaMEMBER

      Should anyone ever find themselves in need of coffee in Moscow you will find an outfit almost everywhere by the name of ‘Shokoladnitsa’ who will do quite plausible coffee at about 2/3 that price

  4. TailorTrashMEMBER

    Great Gunna …….charts without comment can say so much ……….
    ….those budget deficit forecasts remind me of the kinds of forecast PowerPoint charts that terminated many a career prematurely in multinational land ……obviously our politicians don’t have to worry about such pesky things as ……..accountability …………..good job the punters don’t understand such things …………Onya Straya !!

  5. For ‘The Economies Larger Than California’ chart, would I be right in guessing that if we removed finance from the UK, and Germany wasn’t profiteering from the Euro setup, that they would be end up being smaller than California?

  6. haroldusMEMBER

    Low paying college majors in the US

    Music LOL.

    Don’t do it. Don’t let your kids do it.

    “My name is haroldus and I am a guitarist.

    When i learnt the blues riff it was a rush. I wanted more.

    I started chugging and when I did the rhythm to Keep Your Hands to Yourself by the Georgia Satellites I felt bulletproof.

    Then i learnt the riff to stairway. then born to be wild.

    I first saw TAB on the internet, and I knew I had to try it.

    I started detuning and doing Nirvana covers. And I did a bit of Gunners. Actually can you edit that out? I don’t want my mum to know that.

    I even got a police record. But I gave it away when sting went solo.

    My nadir was fusion. ….. I was experimenting with this fretless bass guy. We got into some heavy modes. Lydian, myxolydian, phrygian. We even did locrian a couple of times, we didn’t give a fuck. We just wanted to push the envelope. I’m not proud now, but at the time it felt so .. right

    Sorry I can’t talk about it any more.

    It’s all I can do these days to play Stand By Me on an acoustic.

    Please. Just don’t let your kids do guitar.

    My name is haroldus and I am a guitarist.

    • The Traveling Wilbur

      My name is Wilbur and I’m a guitaraholic.

      It was probably worst for me when I was just starting to lurk around dingy low-rent downtown stores looking to score sheet-music to Doctor Who and Magnum PI. That was when I first new I had a problem. But I couldn’t stop there. Next stop was fingering Greensleeves and jamming to Traffic. And Blur.

      I’m sorry. I’m just so sorry. I don’t expect any of you to forgive me – there’s no excuse, especially not for when I was posting about how Oasis’s live recordings had so much more depth than their studio work. Please don’t telll my music therapist I said that.

      My name is Wilbur and I’m a guitaraholic.

      • haroldusMEMBER

        I hear ya brother. Often when I’m practicing the opening riff to stairway I find myself fingering A minor.

    • GunnamattaMEMBER

      Discovered this in my twitter feed this AM from Nassim Taleb

      At a certain level people have gotta be what they have got to be, and the system which forces them into wage serfdom or to behave like mini corporate fascists just to survive or provide for their families or just to have a comfortable life, needs to face revolution for holding their mundane aspirations to ransom to feed the greed, the bigotry, the condescension, and the outright lies which keeps it alive.

      I too picked up a guitar many times when I was a kid, and wrote and sang songs of protest, and then I realised the music industry too is just another process for channeling money to the elites in exchange for giving them the right choose winners and losers.

      • haroldusMEMBER

        Thanks Gunna. However I think there is little chance of me channeling money anywhere, let alone to the elites.

        As my mate the singer says “If you ain’t made it by 50 you’ll never make it!”

      • GunnamattaMEMBER

        Forget the bullshit about 50. I turned 50 last year and am still working out what my life is about. My inspiration is this guy….

        Enrico Dandolo – – I am such an admirer I actually have taken a photo of myself alongside his burial site in the Sancta Sophia in Istanbul.

        He was an evil fucker in many respects, having co-opted the 4th Crusade to attack Byzantium instead of the Holy Land. A life long public servant (albeit from a wealthy background) prior to that.

        But what inspires me is this. He co opted the 4th crusade (lets face – it just a batch of church loving bigots being fronted by self entitled self woshippers and the church, entitled to slaughter those following them, off to give the Islamics of their era a belting) into attacking the Byzantines (who had spent much of a lifetime insulting the Venetians and Dandolo in his bureaucrat phase) . He was a man getting revenge.

        But what really inspires me is this. He led,in person, the assault upon the walls of Constantinople in 2014, as a man in his mid 90s. And what heightens my inspiration to a white hard modicum of respect is that the man was not only in his mid 90s (yes he was somewhere between 90 and 100 years old) but he was stone motherless blind.

        And I figure that if Enrico had to wait until his 90s and his sight was gone to get his revenge and change the course of history, then an average everyday nutter like me (or you if you are another juvenile 50ish punter) may still get the chance to dirk the fates, and the elites, at a moment inconvenient for them.

      • Hey Gunna, I can relate to that article, for example I love working on classic cars and doing panel beating / physical work. Sure it makes sense to outsource it (I even know folks sending cars abroad to cheaper countries with lower wage rates to do it) but that’s cheating. Sure being in IT pays better, but it doesn’t fulfill the soul in the same way.

        When it comes to manufacturing work, lots of it has moved overseas, but I wonder how many would be happy to do menial work in exchange for a guaranteed form of employment that allows them to just get on with life and raising a family? Instead of having to constantly reinvent themselves in the pursuit of fitting into a knowledge worker environment (which is constantly changing year on year).

        I know I find IT tiring for that reason, always having to learn the newest technology and finding the time for it. If I train as a panel beater sure I’m learning new techniques and tools and methods, but the underlying principal remains the same. Unlike IT where suddenly your whole skill set can be thrown out because the newest and greatest programming language has arrived – despite spending years in a particular language.

        Just my 2 cents.

  7. The Traveling Wilbur

    Panic over! Scomo says Lowe says we’re 90% through the capex / terms of trade / wages growth projection failures..

    Well, he can’t be completely wrong… surely it couldn’t get any​ worse! LMAO.

  8. Interesting that Cranbourne has such high mortgage stress! It should be cheap compared with other parts of Melbourne too!

  9. On the bank levy – I’m not sure why the Deutsche chart it assumes it won’t be deductible. There’s no reason why it shouldn’t be.