Hooray, via the ABC:
A confidential report obtained by the ABC says coal prices will fall significantly and exports from Australia’s biggest coal port will decline if Adani’s giant coal mine in north Queensland goes ahead.
The research has come amid a major split in the Labor Party over plans to offer the giant Carmichael mine subsidies and a reduction in mining royalty payments.
And it has highlighted deep divisions behind the scenes in the coal industry over the federal and Queensland governments’ support for subsidies for the giant mining project.
A key finding of the report was that if Adani’s coal mine in north Queensland went ahead, it would add about $40 million tonnes a year of capacity to the market.
And global coal prices would fall by nearly $3.80 a tonne — from a base case consensus forecast of $68.80 a tonne to $65.
The report said competition from Adani’s Queensland mine would reduce exports from Australia’s largest coal terminal at the port of Newcastle by 11 to 12 million tonnes a year — equivalent to the output of a Hunter Valley coal mine employing about 1,400 people.
Output from Adani’s planned mine would “impact Newcastle supply through influencing the price forecast for thermal coal” with “a bearish price impact of increased new supply from the Carmichael [mine] into the seaborne market”, the report said.
The prospect of jobs and mining royalties in New South Wales being displaced by a giant new Queensland coal mine subsided by the federal and state governments sparked a major schism in the ALP.
“This modelling from a reputable firm commissioned by a leading NSW coal producer should send alarm bells across the industry in NSW and in the halls of government,” said NSW Labor spokesman Adam Searle, after being briefed by the ABC on the research.
“It will dampen the demand for the high-quality NSW coal. The coal that would come out of the Adani mine is of significantly inferior quality.
“This is not only bad for the environment, but it’s bad for the NSW economy, bad for existing NSW thermal coal mines and their workforces.
“And bad for the NSW Government, because it will drive down the royalties that the State Government currently gets.”
Exactly and about time. The Adani mine has no business case. It has only one purpose. It is about saving the job of Jabba Christensen in the electorate of Dawson and rescuing surrounding electorates of Flynn and Capricornia from the clutches of One Nation for the Coalition.
All other considerations are irrelevant.
The good news is that the thermal coal price is sinking so fast that the entire thing should remain on the shelf:
