From UBS:
Oil prices rise as market continues to show signs of rebalancing Brent oil prices closed at $55.24/bbl to end 3.2% up on prior week as comments from OPEC leaders and market data suggests rebalancing ahead. US crude stocks increased weekly build below the 5-year average (4.4 mmbbl) implying YoY tightness in the US crude market, whilst, comments from OPEC leaders at the Iraq Energy Forum indicated progress in rebalancing. OPEC Secretary-General Mohammad Barkindo told reporters that “we have started seeing stock levels coming down”, adding that he remains “cautiously optimistic that the market is already rebalancing”. Crude prices rose following recent events in Syria, with impact partly offset by a 12th consecutive increase in US oil rig count (+10 from prior week) and news that Libya’s Sharara field has started up limited production after shutting down for a week (affecting ~250 kbbl/d production) due to a pipeline blockage.
A couple of charts. First the futures curve:
