Cross-posted from Sinocism:
The Trump-Xi Citrus Summit seems to have been fairly bland, as predicted in the April 4 newsletter. Overall it looks like a big win for China and Xi Jinping and the Kissingerian approach to US-China relations, to the chagrin of those who believed Trump’s promises that he would take a much tougher line towards the PRC.
Chinese Communist Party propaganda had an easy time making Xi look like he was large and in charge. This photo that ran on the front page of the April 8 People’s Daily says a lot:
The tougher approach that Trump has repeatedly threatened may be even less likely if, as Axios Am reports today in Trump kneecaps Bannon, Steve Bannon may soon be gone from the White House:
Axios’ Jonathan Swan hears Bannon allies inside and outside the White House were taken by surprise when Goodwin’s column posted, and are distraught. Bannon allies are bitter about the role they believe economic adviser Gary Cohn has played in undercutting their guy to POTUS. In private conversations, they call him “Globalist Gary.” In text messages, the shorthand is CTC (Carbon Tax Cohn)
I am hearing National Trade Office head Peter Navarro did not go to Mar-a-Lago for the Trump-Xi meeting, which if true would would be quite a downgrade for Mr. “Death By China” Navarro and another indication that the “globalists” are in ascendance. If those “globalists” have won then the US-China relationship has been massively de-risked, at least in the short-term.
Today’s Washington Post reports that ahead of the decision on whether or not China manipulates the RMB Trump is struggling to deliver on his trade promises:
…while Trump has called China “grand champions” of currency manipulation as recently as February, three people familiar with the discussions say it did not appear likely that the Treasury Department would officially designate China in its semiannual foreign currency report due Saturday. The people, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because the discussions are still underway, stressed that no final decision has been made.
Trump had promised to label China a “currency manipulator” on his first day in office, but his administration has moved slowly to follow through on many of his trade-related threats. On Tuesday morning, Trump suggested he would now tie trade discussions with China to whether it works harder to contain North Korea — appearing to add a national security element to a negotiation that had previously been based only on economics.”
President Trump gave Michael Goodwin of The New York Post some color about his talks with Xi. Goodwin reportd in China ‘understood immediately’ why we launched missiles on Syria that Trump says he got along with President Xi:
“I was a little surprised, we had a great chemistry, not good, but great,” Trump said. “I liked him and he liked me a lot. That doesn’t mean we’re going to get along on trade or North Korea, but we had great chemistry.”
That chemistry does not seem to have been affected by the missile strike on Syria that overshadowed the meeting. In an interview with Fox News Trump said he told Xi about the Syrian missile strike over “the most beautiful piece of chocolate cake.” Trump recounted:
Xi paused for ten seconds, then asked the interpreter to please say it again.. then said…“anybody that was so brutal and uses gases to do that to young children and babies, it’s ok”
One of the main public deliverables from the Citrus Summit was the restructuring of the Strategic & Economic Dialogue into “The U.S.-China Comprehensive Dialogue” (USCCD?) which will be overseen by the two Presidents and have four pillars: the diplomatic and security dialogue; the comprehensive economic dialogue; the law enforcement and cybersecurity dialogue; and the social and cultures issues dialogue.
Given that President Trump has other things to do besides manage the US-China relationship, will this structure end up being overseen by Jared Kushner?
Xi and Trump had a call (Xinhua English report) Tuesday about North Korea, but for all the current bluster and increasing pressure it does not sound like military action is imminent, as the Wall Street Journal reports in Trump Issues New Warning to North Korea:
President Donald Trump has signed off on a policy approach to North Korea that involves increased economic and political pressure while military options remain under consideration longer term, a senior U.S. official said.
The approach, which the official said Mr. Trump adopted before his meeting last week with Chinese President Xi Jinping, includes pressing China to follow through with steps to curtail Pyongyang. If China and other North Korea partners don’t do so, the U.S. would adopt measures such as secondary sanctions aimed at Beijing, the official said.
Several other options, including military force, are “on the back burner,” the official said.
Xi invited Trump to visit China later this year and he accepted. I am hearing a likely date may be in November around the APEC meeting in Vietnam, though that may run up against the 19th Party Congress.
H&H here, I would add this editorial today from CCP mouthpiece, the Global Times:
US President Donald Trump tweeted Tuesday that “North Korea is looking for trouble. If China decides to help, that would be great. If not, we will solve the problem without them!”
North Korea’s Supreme People’s Assembly convened on Tuesday. A few days later, North Korea will mark the birth anniversary of the late leader Kim Il-sung on April 15, also known as the Day of the Sun. Pyongyang likes to launch nuclear activities as a political salute around this date. Therefore, April is widely seen as a high-risk period for new nuclear tests by North Korea.
The US aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson is headed toward the Korean Peninsula after abruptly turning back from sailing to Australia, and Trump sent a warning via his tweet. These are probably related to reports that satellite surveillance shows North Korea is likely to conduct new nuclear tests.
Washington’s latest threat to Pyongyang is more credible given its just launched missile attack at an air base in Syria. The Korean Peninsula has never been so close to a military clash since the North conducted its first nuclear test in 2006.
If Pyongyang conducts its sixth nuclear test in the near future, the possibility of US military action against it will be higher than ever. Not only Washington brimming with confidence and arrogance following the missile attacks on Syria, but Trump is also willing to be regarded as a man who honors his promises.
Now the Trump team seems to have decided to solve the North Korean nuclear crisis. As the discussion runs deeper, a situation of no-solution will not be accepted.
A new nuclear test or an intercontinental ballistic missile test, if conducted by Pyongyang at this time, will be a slap in the face of the US government and will intensify the confrontation between North Korea and the US.
Presumably Beijing will react strongly to Pyongyang’s new nuclear actions. China will not remain indifferent to Pyongyang’s aggravating violation of the UN Security Council (UNSC) resolution.
More and more Chinese support the view that the government should enhance sanctions over Pyongyang’s nuclear activities. If the North makes another provocative move this month, the Chinese society will be willing to see the UNSC adopt severe restrictive measures that have never been seen before, such as restricting oil imports to the North. Pyongyang’s nuclear weapons program is intended for securing the regime, however, it is reaching a tipping point. Pyongyang hopes its gamble will work, but all signs point to the opposite direction.
The US is making up its mind to stop the North from conducting further nuclear tests, it doesn’t plan to co-exist with a nuclear-armed Pyongyang.
China supports solution of the North Korean nuclear issue under the framework of UNSC and Six-Party Talks. If the US takes unilateral action, it will win little international support. Pyongyang can continue its tough stance, however, for its own security, it should at least halt provocative nuclear and missile activities.
Pyongyang should avoid making mistakes at this time.
This is stunningly accommodating rhetoric as a US carrier group steams towards China’s coastline, as well as its erstwhile client state and ally. There is Great Power co-operation here. To what extent remains the question.
