Thinks Macquarie:
In the wake of Cyclone Debbie, Wednesday saw a wave of force majeure declarations on near-dated coal cargoes due to be exported from Queensland. Many coal mines remain shut, including BHP’s Goonyella and Peak Downs met coal facilities, while damage inspections are carried out. In terms of infrastructure, rail operator Aurizon has confirmed the 20mtpa Newlands, 110mtpa Goonyella and 18mtpa Moura rail systems are shut due to localised flooding, though the 66mtpa Blackwater system to Gladstone port remains operational. The Peak Downs highway, which serves as the main access route to many Bowen Basin mines is also flooded in multiple places. We would estimate a minimum or one week’s shipments would be lost, equivalent to ~4mt of met coal. Unlike 2011, there is unlikely to be significant buyer panic given marginal supply has already been attracted into the market by 2H16 price gains, most notably from the US and Mongolia.
We shall see later today.
