Pauline destroys Malcolm’s polling

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Stand by for further destabilsation of government, via The Australian:

The Coalition’s support has collapsed to the lowest level since Malcolm Turnbull toppled Tony Abbott as prime minister, with the government trailing Labor by 46 to 54 per cent in two-party terms as parliament resumes amid increasing voter disillusionment about the major parties.

The first Newspoll for the year, taken exclusively for The Australian, reveals a record 29 per cent of people would not give their first preference vote in the House of Representatives to the Coalition or Labor…the Coalition’s primary vote has tumbled four points over the summer holidays to 35 per cent…Mr Turnbull launched his challenge against Mr Abbott in September 2015 the Coalition’s primary vote was 39 per cent.

But the Newspoll survey of 1734 people taken from last Thursday to yesterday shows there has been no gain for Labor or lift for Bill Shorten, with the ALP’s primary vote unchanged at 36 per cent since early ­December and a drop in personal support for the Labor leader.

Support has surged for independents and minor parties from 15 to 19 per cent. Within this group Pauline Hanson’s One Nation has a national primary vote of 8 per cent, which is the same level of support it achieved at the 1998 federal election. Senator Hanson yesterday talked up her hopes of One Nation one day forming government.

Based on preference flows from the last election, Labor enjoys a massive two-party-preferred lead of 54 per cent to the Coalition’s 46 per cent. This is the seventh consecutive Newspoll where Labor has been in front and the worst result for the government under Mr Turnbull’s leadership.

She’s not done yet. Also from The Australian:

One Nation is boasting that it has ­secured the support of more sitting Queensland MPs, as Pauline Hanson­ moved yesterday to push her agenda ahead of the resumption of federal parliament.

In a Sunday newspaper interview and later in a live-stream Facebook broadcast, Senator Hanson revealed new policies calling­ for mandatory pre-nuptial agreements for couples to help end Family Court delays, and work ­restrictions on foreign students studying in Australia.

The push came ahead of ­tomorrow’s first sitting of the federal­ parliament this year, and as One Nation issued a provocative statement that “more sitting members­ were about to come aboard’’ in Queensland.

Former Newman government minister Steve Dickson defected last month from the Liberal Nation­al Party to lead One Nation in the finely-balanced Queensland parliament, where Labor holds minority government.

A One Nation spokesman said the party would hold a press confere­nce on the steps of Parliament House in Brisbane on Friday to “make a big announce­ment’’.

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Only two outcomes here. Either Do-nothing Malcolm or immigration is going to be cut. Very likely both.

About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific's leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
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