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Iron ore prices for February 6, 2017:
Spot fell. Paper eased further overnight. Rebar futures are getting caned but physical is OK. Coking coal keeps sliding. Thermal is biding its time. Port stocks jumped, wait for it, another 4mt last week to 123.5mt!
This is the key indicator that some large marginal part of iron ore buying is speculative. All such episodes have ended and reversed previously when the Chinese property cycle turned. I do not expect this one to be any different.
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About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific's leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
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