So, here we are. Chinese house prices stalled almost completely in January, rising just 0.2% month on month with yearly growth beginning to fall back at 12.2%:
The wild bubble in top tier cities is over, from the NBS:
1 Yuefen a second-tier cities further price stabilization
– State Statistics Bureau City Division senior statistician Liu Jianwei interpretation of the recent price data
National Bureau of Statistics today released the 2017 Nian 1 Yue 70 cities housing sales price statistics. In this regard, the National Bureau of Statistics City Division senior statistician Liu Jianwei were interpreted.
One, 15 lines and hot spots in the city of 11 cities in the new commercial housing prices fell, the three cities were flat
15 line and hot second-tier cities in accordance with local conditions, due to the implementation of real estate policy policy since the city, the market changes significantly, house prices continued to stabilize down. Among them, . 11 cities 1 Yuefen new commercial housing price decline, a decline of 0.1 Zhi 0.5 between the percentage points; 3 cities were flat; Guangzhou chain rose 0.6% , or consecutive 4 months of decline.
Second, a second-tier cities, new commercial housing prices basically stopped the chain, the overall trend of three-tier cities generally stable
From the chain, a second-tier cities prices basically stopped. Preliminary estimates, 1 Yuefen tier cities in new commercial housing prices were to continue unchanged; second-tier cities new commercial housing prices edged up 0.1% , lower than the month rose 0.1 percentage points. Third – tier cities in the overall trend of housing prices stable. 1 Yuefen third tier cities in new commercial housing prices rose 0.4% , or the same as last month.
From the same year, a second-tier cities housing prices rose further down. Among them, the first-tier cities new commercial housing prices rose for four consecutive months continued to fall this month, down 2.6 percentage points from the previous month ; second-tier cities, new commercial housing prices rose for two consecutive months down, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous month.
Looking through the Chinglish we might read that as “happy with progress”. The big question now is where will the chips fall across different cities. So far, top tiers are bearing the brunt and lower tiers are holding up:
45 cities still have rising prices with 25 now flat or falling:
As I have said all along. I don’t expect a rerun of previous busts. This is a largely macroprudential tightening so the slowdown will be more targeted. However, I do expect it to weigh on prices across the entire market over time.
Construction slowing will follow in due course and falls in bulk commodity demand.
