Chinese dodgy money still piling into Aussie property

By Leith van Onselen

From The Australian today comes confirmation that dodgy Chinese money continues to pile into Australian property:

Australian financial intelligence officials last year investigated more than $3.3 billion of suspect transfers by Chinese investors — including $1bn invested in property…

The figures lay bare the scale of Chinese investment in the Australian property market as well as the concerns of officials in Beijing and Australia about investors rorting foreign ownership regulations…

Austrac’s own reporting… found that the most property-­related fund transfers from China reported to the agency were linked to Victoria, followed by NSW …sources say rorting is rife, with foreign buyers using a variety of scams to get their money out of China…

At their most basic, the scams involve using a network of friends and family members to transfer multiples of $US50,000 into Australia, where it is collected and used by a trusted agent to buy property.

More sophisticated scams ­involve buying homes through a web of incorporated companies or through Chinese permanent residents. Neither entity is ­restricted by conditions on property purchases.

Who would have thought: mass immigration combined with dodgy foreign money is pushing-up property prices in Sydney and Melbourne?

Imagine the scale of dodgy foreign money that would be uncovered by the Australian Transaction Reports and Analysis Centre (AUSTRAC) if real estate gatekeepers like real agents, lawyers and accountants were also subject to anti-money laundering (AML) regulations? Because under the existing AML regime (the first tranche implemented in 2006), only financial institutions are currently required to report any dubious transactions.

Let’s recall that in 2015, the global AML regulator, the Paris-based Financial Action Taskforce (FATF), warned that Australian residential property is a haven for international money laundering, particularly from China, and recommended that Australia implement counter-measures to ensure that real estate agents, lawyers and accountants facilitating real estate transactions are captured by the regulatory net.

FATF’s findings were then backed-up by the AUSTRAC, which warned that “laundering of illicit funds through real estate is an established money laundering method in Australia”.

And in May last year, the Statutory Review of the Anti-Money Laundering and Counter-Terrorism Financing Act 2006 was released, which among other things called for the extension of AML rules to non-financial gatekeepers like real estate agents, lawyers and accountants.

A decade ago, the Australian Government promised to implement the second tranche of AML rules covering real estate gatekeepers. Yet here we are, still waiting, with the Turnbull Government last year deferring ratification indefinitely.

Make no mistake, the Australian Government is tacitly complicit with the dirty foreign money flooding into Australia’s homes and pricing our children out of a future.

[email protected]

Unconventional Economist

Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.

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Comments

    • Yesterday my g/f pointed out a tour bus full of Chinese going past us in Ashfield (right near the Bunnings on Parramatta Rd).

      I said they are probably on a property buying tour (not here for actual sight seeing). I said I’m tempted to slash the tyres on a few of those tour buses – see how far they get! She said it won’t make you feel any better. I said actually I think it would.

      I don’t know why, but I’m so angry about it these days that I can almost understand why people lose their minds and go crazy. If I was of a less sound mind I’d probably end up like that Dimitrious fella in Melbourne.

      Not saying what he did was right, it was horrible. But when you feel disenfranchised enough you start to ask the question, but why bother trying to eek out an honest existence? When you just run faster and faster to keep going backwards?

      • Ronin8317MEMBER

        Your anger is misguided. Tour bus is for sight seeing, the normal off the plan purchase does not involve going to the site, as there is nothing to see. The people who can afford to buy existing houses have private transport.

      • You should be angry about it but you also should point your anger towards politicians who are making this possible and not against Chinese or whomever is buying a house. Property is not this affordable because of the Chinese buying but more because of OZ greed so why not go and slash tyres of Aussies going to auctions?! Plenty of those around

      • Send an email to your local member.
        Ask them how many dwellings in your electorate are owned by foreign nationals.
        Tell them to ask the FIRB if they don’t know
        cc Scott Morrison, Chris Bowen, Kelly O’Dwyer, Brian Wilson and Michael West

      • Your anger is well founded, our government might be the primary culprit but they the Chinese knowingly skirt our laws to buy illegally. This class of immigrant we can do without.

      • @The Patrician thanks probably the most practical solution here. I’m going to rattle a few cages 😀

      • ErmingtonPlumbing

        Not true Ronin,

        I used to do the same 22km bike ride from my house and back again, a couple of times a week, whilst they were building those massive multi story apartments blocks at Rhodes, on the old contaminated Union Carbide site (see image above the heading “INTRODUCING RHODES CENTRAL”,…http://rhodescentral.com.au/).

        With the old Union Carbide facade still not demolished and a high temperature Industrial furnace on site, still burning out the Toxins from the top 3m of contaminated soil, to then be backed filled again!,… I’m riding along the street between the railway tracks and this site, heading towards the Parramatta River and Come across about 6 or 7 Buses/Coaches all lined up along the side of the road with the passengers all being formed up in double file to be marched about a 100 meters down the road to the One completed Apartment towers sales office. Me and My mate Mobbsy rode around for quite some time watching them, stunned at what appeared to be a mass group purchasing of these properties by one Overseas community (Chinese or Korean)
        Would they all have come from the same town, city or Village? we ask each other. It was quite a sight.

        I now take my kids riding through this development, after crossing the silverwater bridge we ride along the Parramatta river to the Homebush/Olympic park ferry wharf, then ride past all those huge new towers being built on the western side of Homebush bay and ride across that new bridge spanning both sides of the bay (pedestrians, taxis and busses only but I see heaps of locals driving over it) over to the mini surfers paradise, on that old Union Carbide land, now completed after more than a decade since watching those people being marched into that sales office.
        The lack of Multiculturalism there is remarkable, Riding past literally 1000s of people (on a saturday or sunday) we do not see one non asian face. My daughter with her very white skin, blond hair and blue eyes draws many “Double takes”.

        No doubt Indigenous Australians from the earlier days of Sydney, would have had similar Anecdotes to tell.
        When the First Fleet arrived bringing less than 1500 Europeans, Australia’s Indigenous population was estimated to be between 750,000 to 1,000,000.
        Colonialism didn’t take long to reverse those demographics, to the Great detriment of the local culture.

        Is Colonialism something we should be doing again?

      • I feel like this when I am at inspections on the weekend though its not as worse as seeing Canberra talking about housing affordability – none have any intention to solve this. I am almost sold that there are just two choices get with them or leave.

      • @ErmingtonPlumbing – My experience in the Inner West is the same. I’ve seen groups of 20-30 Asian’s walking around the suburbs of my area just looking at streets / houses and the suburb. It’s not exactly a normal sort of tourist place. So they are clearly there to look at purchasing in the area at some point.

        My local supermarket yesterday was full of Asian faces, I know of course that we have some people of Asian decent who have been here for 20-30 years now, but it struck me that my area of the Inner West is now slowly replacing the faces of locals with our new immigrants.

        Is this a good or bad thing? Well I don’t see 20M Australian’s moving to China and buying up their best housing stock. They have priced young and first home buyers out. For what? So we can pay taxes that take care of their health in older age, possibly provide them with a pension also?

        The whole situation feels wrong, everything about it. I know when I’m Melbourne I look at the suburbs I grew up in and went to school in and now I can’t afford to live there myself. Despite the area feeling like “home”. I’m feeling more and more like a form of refugee alienated from my home land.

        Sure, sure it’s racist to single the Chinese out, but I’m past the point of caring about labels. Fuck the Chinese, fuck their aspirations, fuck what they want, fuck their wealth, fuck their skirting of the rules. Fuck our corrupt politicians, fuck it all.

      • re : EP. I stand corrected. Did a search on the ‘Australian Investment Tour’ in Chinese and they indeed exists : 8 days and they bus your around Sydney, Melbourne and Brisband/Gold Coast to visit investment properties, at a cost of over 3K AUD per person @[email protected] It is indeed a travesty.

      • Ronin8317 – Can I slash the fucking tyres on those things now? 😀 I’d feel a whole lot better. Maybe disable the air-con also hahaha.

      • Gavin, what’s stopping you buying in an outer Melbourne suburb?

        If you’re at the point of “understanding” Dimitrious, equating your own position of desperation equally, you need to get a grip on reality.

        Either buy in Belgrave or Sunbury. Or move to South Australia or Castlemaine. Or ask mum and dad for a few dollars. Because if you don’t your obsession will consume you. It’s a house.

      • Hahaha. Easy to get sucked into the vortex of disillusion. “Girls in white dresses with pink satin sashes, snowflakes that fall on my nose and eyelashes…”. My ex used to sing this to the little one, it worked 😉

      • @Gavin, go on a holiday. Settling down isn’t an option right now, so don’t even think about.

      • ErmingtonPlumbing

        If going on Holidays is not an option,…I find that sometimes, just having a big angry wank, can leave you feeling very relaxed and rested.

        I am available for Life coaching if required for only a small fee.

        😉

      • Gavin I’m in inner west sydney too and also had to contend with foreign chinese buyers over a year ago when looking to buy a home. Usually the chinese only want big blocks close to transport and therefore Ashfield, Burwood, Concord, etc and adjacent areas are those that catch their eye. They are not interested in properties going the opposite direction towards the city because they are smaller lots and often semis or row houses. But having been an inner westie since childhood im amazed at the demographic changes that have taken hold. I have chinese friends of Hong Kong origin and believe me they are even less tolerant of these mainland chinese hordes that are buying up everything. One of them moved to sutherland shire to get as far away from the chinese monoculture that has overtaken and established itself in Hurstville on the southside. What really pisses me off is the buldozing of large beautiful period houses just in order to stick up a an ugly stack of cheap apartments or another boring mcmansion. Its one thing im noticing more in the inner west mainly to pander to chinese “investment” needs.

      • @EP – LOL at the big angry wank. I hate Vegas but maybe a good idea to go back and fire a few more rounds of a pump action shot gun. Merica’ Fuck Yeah.

        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RJXQ8Tg6MMI

        I also managed to fire off an MG-42 haha, that was fun for a whole 30 seconds before it ran out of ammunition. I’m not big into guns but shooting at a paper target might be a good way to feel better when frustrated.

        I usually work on my cars to help me calm down, but it’s so damn hot lately I haven’t had the gumption.

        @Buddy – I am in the Concord area and definitely notice what you’re talking about. I just have to remember things will change at some point and renting isn’t so bad so long as my landlord doesn’t boot us out to “cash in” in the next year or so.

        @MinerMike – Listening to that sound of music segment actually helps :D.

      • I’m tellin’ ya man, we need to build Ozzie Ordos out in the desert somewhere. 100% for Chinese investors who just want to park surplus capital out of reach of their government. Redirect that entire “investment” flow to somewhere where it can’t do any damage.

      • Yes lots of house buying tours. They don’t have tell be rich, they have equity in their properties in China so the banks will lend, link at the guy mentioned a couple of days ago buying some place way out west who was now saying her probably won’t pay the next installment due to CCP crackdown.

        The other worrying thing is that it snows the seeds of social discontent as people start to see ALL Asians as the problem why they have to pay so much for housing, even though many Asians have been here generations.

  1. Caught up with a mate over the weekend who told me his parents’ house in a sought-after Melb suburb was sold, through a local real estate agent, to a Chinese non-resident for top dollar. The property was never listed and the agent made a juicy commission on the deal.

    He believes the deal is a land-grab. No intention to occupy or rent out. Amazing stuff.

    • If you care about this country you will dob them in.

      Failure to dob this in makes you complicit in treason.

    • scootytootyMEMBER

      Sounds like Glen Waverley, I grew up there, my parents still live there, it’s been years since I saw a house sold that wasn’t bulldozed to make way for a mansion that takes up every square meter of the block.

  2. Another reason for China to drop $50k limit down to $10k comes July. Oz will do nothing to stop these funds but China..

    • That’s a question for pfh007. I’m going to say “yes” as it simply increases demand for AUD.

      High property values are a more damaging force acting against productive industry as it drives up all input costs from commercial rent to wages (gotta pay employees more so they can afford the their million $ working class home). Combine that with a high currency value and you become the least export competitive country on earth.

      Germany actively tries to limit the value of housing – after all, it’s a product like any other and should become cheaper over time with improved manufacturing methods. That is only one reason they are an economic powerhouse, but the underlying thinking is important. How else does a developed nation compete with low-wage economies?

    • Absolutely yes. It’s one of the key factors holding the AUD higher than it should be.

      It’s not just the money coming in as savings either, it’s the money being borrowed in too. Banks here are fully aware of the fact that an internationally wealthy Chinese borrower is only AUD-poor due to capital movement constraints put in place by the Chinese government. So they lend to the credit-worthy Chinese borrower with confidence that a way will be found to get around the limitations.

      In fact, I’ll lay London to a brick that our big banks are directly helping Chinese borrowers to get around the limitations. Eg, the establishment of paired accounts in an Australia domiciled bank and a Hong Kong domiciled bank. Credit the Chinese borrower’s Australian account with AUD paired with an RMB-denominated liability in their Hong Kong account. Service the loan through Hong Kong with repayments in RMB at a variable rate to protect against forex volatility. The Australian banks net it away through forex swaps (derivatives), or they hit the markets themselves to borrow AUD internationally and book it as their own foreign debt. They profit from the difference between the cost of the swap/borrowing and the interest rate charged to the client (higher). Either way, the Australian banks end up with a large holding of RMB assets counterbalanced by AUD liabilities that need to be converted back at some point, but they have the luxury of time to do this which adds perpetual upwards pressure to the AUD (ie, when they sell RMB to buy AUD, it pushes the AUD higher relative to the RMB).

      They can mask much of this by multi-part swaps buried in large, pooled transactions. Eg, swapping AUD -> YEN -> EUR -> USD -> RMB, whatever you want. There’ll be teams of arbitrage traders playing the forex markets and forex derivatives markets constantly with pooled funds, looking for the best international trades across all markets and making these sorts of shenanegans pretty much impossible to trace at high resolution.

      So we end up with an insane situation where tons of AUD credit is being created (which should weaken the AUD), but the AUD actually gets STRONGER because it’s being created in parallel with a forex swap and the other side of the swap (RMB) is inflating credit relatively faster. (Forex valuation is relative, not absolute).

  3. Tacitly complicit UE?? The failure of the ato to prosecute anyone regardless of recommendations going up the line (Gunna) suggests corruption to me.

    • well, seeing as the money was probably made in China illegally, was probably sent out of China illegally, the transfer point and receiving point of the money in Australia were illegally (or very shadily) whitewashed… it stands to reason the actual purchase would also be illegal no? I mean, why change modus operandi.

  4. $1bn lol
    The NAB and ANZ residential property data indicates that between 25,000 and 30,000 existing Australian dwellings were illegally sold to foreign nationals in the last year.
    That is between $10bn and $12 bn

    • $1b is roughly 800 median Sydney houses, a pittance. But that amount detected would be the tip of the iceberg that’s not detected. And that’s just the really black money, money laundering, proceeds of crime. That is itself the tip of another iceberg which is the FIRB-evading, China FX restriction-evading grey money. And that’s just the tip of the existing property buying iceberg. Which is the tip of the massive overall new/existing/development property buying iceberg.

    • Interesting that they don’t seem to have the resources to deal with this, but they rammed the Centrelink data matching programme through.

      Speaks volumes about the priorities of this scumbag government.

      • Maybe they could just write to the entire database and accuse them of illegally purchasing property, then put the onus on them to “correct the data” within 21 days or surrender the deeds.

  5. Michael Faraday

    The Federal Government Ministers have been made fully aware of this problem. They have wilfully ignored the issue and actively encouraged it to continue and done nothing to direct the agencies under their authority to act against it.

    Its a crime. There are in fact laws and regulations governing the actions of our federal ministers and it appears to me that they are not acting in the interests of good governance or the people of Australia.

    Further every single residential property purchase going back ten years, or even more, needs to be investigated. There can be no doubt about this – every single one.

    This country needs a Royal Commission into the actions of the governing ministers in relation to the FIRB, ATO, and any relevant authority on housing purchases. Any agent or other entity who knowingly aided or benefited from illegal sales should be prosecuted to the full extent of the law which should even be retrospectively altered to include harsher penalties.

    The alternative is for Australians to look at a future similar to so many Asian / South East Asian counties with huge expat Chinese populations who work / vote / spend in collusion and cause great trouble in these nations.

    It really is a massive concern, Chinese expat populations can cause great trouble.

    • The solution is far simpler and more effective than a Royal commission.
      Require proof of the purchasers FIRB compliant residency status/approval on the transfer of title.
      Fixed

      • How would that work?
        “Hmmm, they look Asian. Better ask for residency proof.”
        For all anyone knows, their ancestors might have settled in Australia in the 1850s during the gold rushes. They might be more Australian than you.

        Conversely, “No need to check them. They’ve got blonde hair and blue eyes”. They might have just got off the plane from Sweden on a tourist visa and have no right to buy anything.

        Or are you going to ask every purchaser in every transaction to show their passport, birth certificate or residency papers? And even that won’t work if non-eligibles launder their purchases through residents.

        This is not an easy problem to fix.

      • Alas, it’s not as simple as the simpletons would have us believe. Chinese students routinely get permanent residence after they complete their studies. They mostly go back to China, but when they do they don’t lose their permanent residence. They can then buy all the property they like perfectly legally without ever setting foot in Australia again. All they will need to do is email their residency papers.

        More to the practical point, compulsory showing of residency papers means that Mr and Mrs Joe Aussie Average are going to have prove they are legal residents if they want to buy property. If you want to start a violent revolution, you couldn’t come up with a more sure way. No politician is ever going to suggest that. It’s just ridiculous.

      • Beelzbub – how do you suggest them to get a credit card or invest in shares which is online and can be done from wherever they are? Asking for an ID and a proof of residence is one simple thing to do just before you are settling a million dollar property. Have you rented a house? you need a ID and far more documents than buying, Why?

      • The notion that you would deliberately not require proof of FIRB compliant residency/approval in an attempt to enforce the FIRB laws is beyond bizarre

    • Yeah, the pollies in the Liberal Party know what’s going on and are deliberately doing nothing about it.

      It’s treason if you ask me. And their dodgy Chinese friends know how to handle traitors.
      1. Tie the traitor to a pole.
      2. Hang a plaque around his/her neck with their crimes written on it.
      3. Blast the traitor’s brains out in front of a public audience.
      4. Bill the traitor’s family for the cost of the execution.

      Perhaps we should import this practice, along with all that dodgy money? It would cull a few “rising stars” in the Liberal Party.

      • Officially no. But Amnesty International have plenty of evidence plus I’ve seen a pretty shocking leaked vid on LiveLeak.

      • There has been no prosecution for 9 years, so you can add a few Labor treasurers as well in that time. Add too the Greens who have said nothing about it (despite emails from me, I used to live in Melbourne CBD).

      • @fitzroy, true but governments are slooooooow to recognise a problem exists and even slower to do something about it.

        Hence it took until 2015 for Kelly O’Dwyer’s report to come out, and at this point nobody in Government has any excuse for ignoring the problem. Hence I’m going to be gracious to Labor for now, but the Liberals have damned themselves by the standards they set for themselves on this issue. If Labor gets back in and does nothing or just waves a wet lettuce I’ll be just as scathing.

      • TW
        Labor were on notice FIRB laws were not being enforced at least as early as 2010 and set up the first sham fix
        http://ministers.treasury.gov.au/DisplayDocs.aspx?doc=pressreleases/2010/074.htm&pageID=&min=njsa&Year=&DocType=0
        Labor did not commence one single prosecution in 6yrs (2008-2013) while in power
        Labor appointed Brian “Lazard” Wilson as the Chair of the FIRB
        Labor opposed the 2014 FIRB inquiry, ran interference during the inquiry (Chalmers and Husic) and protected the corrupt Brian Wilson every step of the way
        Labor’s record on FIRB enforcement is appalling

  6. In 2010, PM Gillard said she does not want a big AUS.

    We are still waiting for immigration to be slashed.

  7. These figures are backwards looking and reflect Australia housing which has been largely driven by Chinese buying for years now.
    Things have changed. The capital controls out of China are REAL now. Watch the flow on effects over coming months.

    An early indication is Chinese buying over Chinese New Year that looks almost non-existent given auction clearance rates on the weekend. This is during Chinese New Year too….

    • Lol Thats what you said 2yrs ago
      Give Kelly’s “crackdown” a chance
      Things have changed
      Wait and watch
      We waited
      We watched
      Nothing changed except we watched the price of Sydney houses increase by $200,000

      • 2 years ago the banks in Shenzhen still had approvals to allow a flow of currency out of the country into Hong Kong in an attempt to set the Yuan up as a trading currency behind the USD. This attempt backfired spectacularly as the flows out of China increased. I work in big amounts moving out of China (10’s and sometime 100’s of million), my wife’s family have international businesses based in China and Hong Kong and I import into China through our facilities there. The tightening has been happening over the last year, it was getting hard by June to get legit payments across to Japan to cover payroll. But the change introduced for the new year is a major structural change. Right now, I can not move TAXED dividends out of the Chinese company to the foreign investors. I can still transfer large amounts out but my cost basis has jumped from a low of 2% to 12% (last quote on Friday) and 18% at its peak 2 weeks ago. If you don’t have resources outside China already, the movement of big amounts is difficult. And the scrutiny is amazing, our company Audit in China this year has required us to disclose all the shareholders details in the foreign company for the first time.

        I know you are skeptical, and rightly so. This is a whack-a-mole approach to capital outflows and the Aussie government is a party to illegal transactions through their actions. But the changes in China have teeth and if Australia won’t track them, China sure as hell is. Like I have said many times, it is not hard to spot the local agents of the government. Once you sign the paperwork in China stating that the intent of the transfer is not for property, to use it to pay for mortgages or down payments is an act of fraud in China and they will pursue it – Chickens losing heads in front of monkeys in the year of the Rooster!!!!!

      • https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-26/world-s-biggest-real-estate-buyers-are-suddenly-short-on-cash

        http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/inside-the-market/housing-markets-reel-as-china-curbs-capital-flight/article33791099/

        Similar reports from Canada. What the Chinese government is doing now across all capital movement channels is at a whole new level.. It is not limited to individual FX conversion but the whole gamut of capital and current account transactions. More is likely coming too which will effect international student and tourist numbers thereby hitting housing demand….

      • Hey Gramus,
        Genuine question
        Why do you think you got your 2yo Kelly FIRB “crackdown” call so badly wrong?

    • Very small number of auctions, although funnily enough the lowest clearance rates were in Inner West, North Shore

  8. The Real Estate industry finds no problem turning a blind eye to this massive rort with the illegal foreign purchases. On the other hand, when it comes to hounding some poor old renter who has been discovered with an illegal cat or dog, the RE industry gets all sanctimonious and self righteous about “terms of your lease”. No blind eye here – it’s the letter of the law!

    Barnaby must have been a property manager in a previous life considering how hard he went on Johnny Depp with Pistol and Boo. I am not saying Johnny Depp and his flakey wife were saints, but it just sticks out that the big song and dance about the observance of the law is confined to the petty and meaningless little issues. Don’t these prick realize that if they keep poking us in the eye, we are eventually going to take a four-by-two after them.

  9. Forex Transfers: You don’t always need to complete international transfer by a physical transfer through a banking system or bitcoin. The Hawal transfer system is generation old that operated between UK and India, when there were forex restrictions in India. It only requires a group of say, Chinese in China, who need AUD in Australia (to buy property or anything else), to be matched up with a group of say, Chinese in Australia, who want RMB in China (to provide to family or buy property in China). No impact on the AUD.

    • Spot on – but the costs for this funding method, the risk of fraud (trust is not a big thing with Chinese transactions as everyone is trying rip everyone off) and the amounts available (banks in China as off Jan 1 need to match outflows with inflows placing a real cap on transaction volumes) will limit this method as well. This will always be around, if you want to do this, I can hook you up with millions…..

  10. There seems to be a reverse discrimination policy when it comes to bringing money into this country.

    My wife and I transferred money BACK into Australia 8 years ago and were sent a letter by the ATO 4 years years later (!!) saying Austrac had identified a payment in and therefore we had undeclared foreign income. The burden of proof was apparently on us so it took a lot of running around to prove that the money was actually earned in Oz and that it was in fact the same money. Worse thing is that before we knew about this, we transferred it back to the US and now are very reluctant to bring it back as we will have to face the same problem. Meanwhile, property keeps rising here and cashed up non permanent residents CAN get their money in. Absolute bullshit.

  11. I’m sick of this.

    Does anyone know of a county that has fair land prices and openly accepts westerner’s applications for residence?

    • ErmingtonPlumbing

      Australia is still one of the Greatest places in the world to live Simon.

      But our Democratic political process has been corrupted and taken over by a narrow band of elites who benefit from the status quo.
      The Solution is not to flee, but rather to Participate. Join a Political party (I Recommend Labor) and attempt to retake it from the ground Up.

      Once joined, Don’t sneekly or lazily go with the flow,..state your displeasure at the current apparatchiks and their policy focus, encourage others to do likewise, convince like minded friends and associates to Join up as well and fucking rebell!,…very little can or will be achieved throwing stones from the outside.

      Party membership is at all time lows,…it wouldn’t take too many people to shake things up.
      FFS Organise yourselves people!

  12. Bullshit it is, buddy. is is just another property industry spruik in the hope of keeping this balloon afloat. I can assure you, even if you bring the cash in a suitcase and pay cash for a condo you will not avoid Chinese and Austrac detection. You certainly will not borrow money here if your income is overseas. Either way, sooner or later you will be substantially poorer.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uocMTO93-Oo

  13. boomengineeringMEMBER

    Ermington and Gavin,
    I am not and have never been racist but I must say I was overwhelmed on Australia Day at the Opera House where all colours were represented in the crowd except whites.

    • ErmingtonPlumbing

      It was pretty “White” at Cockatoo Island on Australia Day and not to Crowded, a great day for the Kids and Adults alike, I recommend it to everyone.
      Heaps of history and things to check out there,… but It did depress me a little, the Historical Photographic exhibition, in the 1840 built residence atop the island (good place to picnic) as it very powerfully illustrates the amount of knowledge and ability in engineering we have lost.

      “During World War II, Cockatoo Island was the main ship repair facility in the southwest Pacific. 250 ships were converted or repaired at the island, including the Queen Mary and Queen Elizabeth. In August 1943, the cruiser HMAS Hobart limped into Sydney Harbour and Cockatoo Island for repairs and modernisation after suffering torpedo damage in the New Hebrides. In 1945 HMAS Australia, a veteran of the Battle of the Coral Sea, also steamed home for repairs after suffering kamikaze attacks in the Philippines.
      After the war, ships were converted back to commercial service. In the 1960s Cockatoo Island constructed Empress of Australia, the largest roll-on roll-off cargo passenger ship in the world. The mid 1960s also saw international competition and changes to the tendering process affect production. This affected facility maintenance and staff numbers, and by the 1970s shipbuilding on the island was in a state of serious decline.
      The last ship to be constructed on the island was HMAS Success, the largest naval vessel built in Australia. In its lifetime the yard had over 12,000 dockings, constructed hundreds of vessels and repaired thousands, as well as providing the livelihood and training for countless workers.

      Almost as depressing is the Island’s Alcohol policy . My mate had a six pack confiscated (until we left the island) at the ferry wharf and in the few designated Areas where alcohol could be consumed, were 9 Bucks a pop!

      There is a public wharf on the balmain side of the island, so next time we will smuggle in our beers there in the mates boat.
      😉

      http://www.cockatooisland.gov.au/visit/our-history

  14. All of the above is based on historical data and does not take into account the current crackdown by the Chinese launched this current month. Its gone from a flood to a drought.

      • probably no data but it will not take long for data to show up in the Feb and Mar Auction Results. Also, anyone trying to settle OP in the coming months should struggle.

      • Another day, another unsubstantiated anecdote
        Meanwhile back in the real world Sydney and Melbourne house prices hit new all-time record highs

  15. 18=14+4. The 18 year real estate cycle.
    Please Google it if you don’t know what I’m referring to. Pretty much every single prediction this guy has made since 2000 has played out.
    I can’t say that. Can you?
    I’d love to get some kind of discussion going on his theory in this forum.
    If you believe it, then the seemingly never ending escalation of Aussie property is perfectly logical. And it has considerable legs left yet….
    Disclaimer: This theory goes against everything I’ve planned for. (Sold house, sitting in cash). So if he’s right, I’m pretty much screwed. But, due to the dreaded confirmation bias, I try to consider all views and opinions. I do not lambaste the views of others, simply because they differ to mine.
    But I tell you all, this should not be discounted on face value. Google it. Consider it. And then let’s discuss it like grown ups.

    • 18=14+4. The 18 year real estate cycle. I Googled this & I think it’s BS .
      In WA at least — up until 2002 the R/E market used to have a 7 year cycle. That’s all been fucked up by the continual cutting of interest rates from 2002 onwards. End of 2002 was supposed to be the peak for R/E in WA before we had a several year downturn. Didn’t happen.
      Anyway I don’t believe his theory holds anything but BS simply because at some unknown for now time it’s all going to crash down. We’re all waiting — and it’s very frustrating.

    • The problem is as he said in the seminar in port Douglas. Is it the Chinese cycle or the Australian cycle. I think the Chinese cycle was this year.

  16. Gen Y never stood a chance..

    good call

    Property had always been something my parents spoke to me about while I was in high school in the late 90s

    get a degree, decent job, then buy a nice house and live comfortably

    Then Howard and Costello’s axis of evil kicked in around 99/2000

    I was at uni and watched houses in my area (Glen/Mount Waverley) go from $280k+ for an old 3br on 700sqm to $450k in 2003, ok I thought, I’ll be ok, then another boom hit and..

    Then around 2008 I noticed massive sums of money being dropped by Asian Australians/or Internationals (can’t say for sure) at local auctions, suddenly these old banged up houses were selling for $1.7mil.. my parents and I were dumb founded and wondered where these people come up with that sort of money

    My in laws are from HK and we often speak about what has happened to Glen Waverley, they have known people to migrate and immediately hit the local auction scene and buy multiple properties, each at over $1 million +, I say what hope do kids have, they might as well give up

    • Haha my friend just bought a house in glen @2mil. For him he sold one of his, a 30 years old 2dedroom apartment in Shanghai for almost 10mil Chinese yuan. The 2million glen house is sooooo cheap for him and he is planning to buy few more. You have no idea how rich people in Chinese cities are. And the whole world’s money still flow toward them ( you know everything is made in China)

  17. boomengineeringMEMBER

    Erminton,”Empress” well that brings back fond memories of my ship repair days I can’t mention here.

  18. Finally, somebody here who has a memory that extends past 6 years. I first started noticing prices going up beyond reason around 1998. Didn’t buy then, and have been calling bubble since. If I thought prices were ridiculous 18 years ago I certainly won’t buy now. Never will. Becoming a slave to the bank and thinking I own a house when it in fact owns me…Never gonna happen. It’s called integrity…a word that is a complete bloody mystery to most people these days.

    • Ronin8317MEMBER

      The price did drop around then with the dot com bust, however the First Home Buyer grant for new build from Howard got prices booming again. Trend and logic cannot goes against a government hell bent on forcing property prices up.

    • I get you Kolchak

      How many booms before the bubble was too big, The last time I saw the market as being anywhere near fair value was when I bought in ’04

      Since then there have been 3 booms?

      I think now, in Melbourne especially, it is well beyond anything near fair value

      Even in 2010 I can remember asking a friend who had just taken out an $800k mortgage to buy a house when exactly they expected to pay it off

      “oh you can’t worry about paying it off, eventually we’ll get much more than we paid and that will cover all our debt”

      I thought that is so messed up but it seems to be the common perception

      As long as some fool is around to pay twice what I did in a few years it will all be ok

  19. boomengineeringMEMBER

    Kolchak,
    Simliar story, Told my nephew who owns Sunova a surfboard factory in Thailand about the ridiculous prices of Dee Why headland $300,000, now 2m+.But I did relent and buy (not there or then), still harping on about high RE but no one listens anymore after that many years.

  20. They won’t – but the US Fed could – another interest rate rise in the offing – pressure on our banks borrowing costs as a result…passed onto the mortgage holder….