The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) was already on shaky ground, but with the election of Donald Trump to President of the United States last night, the deal is now effectively dead.
President-elect Trump has been a strong detractor of the TPP from the outset, labeling it a “rape of our country” during the Presidential Election campaign. He has also vowed that he would tear-up NAFTA.
Whereas Hilary Clinton opposed the TPP during the Presidential Election campaign, she was formerly a strong supporter, leaving open the possibility that she might flip-flop once she was elected.
The outgoing Obama Administration was also expected to use the lame duck session after the Presidential Election to give Congress the chance to vote on the deal. But with the Republicans sweeping Congress, and Trump likely to repeal the deal anyway once he takes the Presidential reins, the TPP won’t be ratified in the United States, which means the deal is dead in its entirety.
From the outset, this site has been against the TPP on the grounds that it would unnecessarily strengthen intellectual property laws and enable foreign corporations to sue national governments via Investor State Dispute Settlement (ISDS) provisions.
There is, however, the risk that what comes in its place could actually be worse. With the United States pulling back from the global rules-based trading system, China will seek to take its place.
Already, Australian negotiators have headed into a new secretive 16-member mega trade pact called the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), which is being headed by China.
Like the TPP, the RCEP will contain controversial ISDS provisions. The deal also looks to be even more secretive than the TPP, with only business groups invited into the inner core. Some of the members of RCEP are not open democracies – specifically China, Indonesia, Malaysia – meaning the deal is likely to be even less transparent.
So while the battle has been won on the TPP, the war against spurious trade deals appears to have a long way to run.
