I still expect a relatively bullish result at the forthcoming OPEC meeting with Saudi and its client states carrying the load, that does very little to raise prices anyway. Deutsche has produced a nice primer on what outcomes are likely:
The output range is already agreed
The official text of the minutes from the Algiers Extraordinary Meeting on 28 September detailed very little apart from confirming the 32.5-33.0 mmb/ d targeted production range. In our view, media coverage of the proceedings has at times been overly pessimistic. As we read it, the wording of the official minutes indicates that the production range has already been settled. The only remaining point of debate is the method of implementation. This is supported by the Algerian energy minister Noureddine Boutarfa’s comments (“There’s no going back,” Bloomberg 17 November). Recent comments also indicate that a six-month duration for the initial output agreement is likely to be specified, rather than the open-ended quotas issued in the past.
The full text of this article is available to MacroBusiness subscribers
