The last remaining hope for the passage of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade deal has been dashed, with the Obama Administration ruling-out putting the deal to a vote during the lame duck session of Congress prior to President-Elect Donald Trump and the new look Congress taking over on 20 January. From Peter Martin:
Eight years in the making, the giant Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal between Australia, the US and 10 other regional powers is as good as dead after the Obama administration walked away from its plan to put it before the “lame duck” Congress ahead of Donald Trump’s inauguration as president…
Over the weekend the Senate’s top Democrat Charles Schumer told union leaders the deal would not be ratified. House of Representatives Republican speaker Paul Ryan, who has in the past supported the TPP, said the “votes aren’t there” to pass it…
The New York Times also confirmed that that the TPP will not be put to a vote during the lame duck session:
Senator Chuck Schumer of New York, the incoming Democratic leader, told labor leaders on Thursday that the pending Trans-Pacific Partnership… would not be approved by Congress. Senator Mitch McConnell, Republican of Kentucky and the majority leader, said flat-out “no” when reporters on Wednesday asked whether the agreement would be considered in the lame-duck Congress that convenes next week — its last legislative chance, given the opposition from the president-elect.
From the outset MB has been against the TPP on the grounds that it would unnecessarily strengthen intellectual property laws and enable foreign corporations to sue national governments via Investor State Dispute Settlement (ISDS) provisions.
However, with the United States pulling back from the global rules-based trading system, China will seek to take its place.
Already, Australian negotiators have headed into a new secretive 16-member mega trade pact called the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), which is being headed by China and explicitly excludes the US.
Like the TPP, the RCEP will contain controversial ISDS provisions. The deal also looks to be even more secretive than the TPP, with only business groups invited into the inner core. Some of the members of RCEP are not open democracies – specifically China, Indonesia, Malaysia – meaning the deal is likely to be even less transparent.
Thus, there is the risk that what comes in the place of the TPP might be even worse.
