The Brent oil price jumped to $48.99 last night as markets agreed with me that OPEC is engaged in last minute brinkmanship but will cut. Henry Hub is surging again on forecasts for cooler weather:
OPEC is all over the place today and there is nothing of substance in it beyond the group agreeing at least that the next meeting will go ahead. I still think it will cut but it is unfortunate that the market has moved to agree with me because that lowers the chances of it happening. Lower prices pressure the cartel.
Not that it matters. Even if it cuts one million barrels it will not be enough (unless Russia follows with more). Libya is setting up to flood and US rigs are still climbing though Nigeria is still lagging. If there is no deal then prices are sure going to fall.
