Daily iron ore price update (thermal crash)

David Llewellyn-Smith

Thursday 17 November 2016

Iron ore charts for November 16, 2016:

Tianjin spot fell -0.7% to $72.20 but is still very high. DCE paper was hit again overnight. Coking coal has stabilised. Steel is sinking. Thermal coal is crashing and I expect it will not stop until back into the $60s. CISA steel output data fell 1.1% to 1.7mt in the last third of October. It appears headed for its usual year-end slowdown.

The bubble bust is far from over but it appears likely that it will be calibrated in part to the deflation of coking coal prices which will transpire from now through Q1 2017.

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About the author

David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.