China coal (including lignite) imports dropped 15% MoM but surged 55% YoY to 21.58mt, and YTD coal imports have jumped 18.5% YoY thanks to reduced China domestic supply after the “276 days” rule. We believe a domestic mine supply increase began last month following the adjustment of the rule in September, and calculated import loss for thermal coal has deteriorated since late-October. Latest news
The China thermal coal futures price was down 5% today after a series of cooling measures were announced by government and the exchanges. The NDRC has called for a coal meeting tomorrow with administrative bureaus, logistics departments and major miners. This is the sixth meeting NDRC has had on coal since middle-September, with the aim of increasing coal transportation volumes. As we highlighted in this note, there has already been a material increase in coal transportation volumes to China’s northern ports. In addition, the China Coal Transport Distribution Association (CCTD) is saying that the 330-day mine extensions announced at the start of October will be extended into 1Q, having previously been valid to year-end only.
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David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
