Arctic heat wave “scary”

From the FT:

Scientists are struggling to understand why a burst of “scary” warming at the North Pole has pushed Arctic temperatures nearly 20C higher than normal for this time of year.

…“We’ve been processing this data since 1958 and we haven’t really seen anything like this at this time of year,” said Rasmus Tonboe, a sea ice expert at the Danish Meteorological Institute. “We are watching the situation and trying to analyse what is going on but it’s very surprising.”

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This had reduced the temperature difference between the Arctic and more southerly regions, causing a “wavier” jet stream — a great river of fast-moving air about 10km above the earth that acts as a barrier separating the North Pole from warmer latitudes.

…“That is scary because it is showing us how rapidly the climate system is changing … We expected for a long time to see the ice disappear and the Arctic warm up and perhaps the jet stream doing bizarre things, but it’s happening much faster than I think anyone expected.

h3

Phew. Glad it’s a UN conspiracy.

Comments

  1. Arctic heat wave “scary”
    That’s not going to work. Change the link to:
    “Number of topless girls surges in Arctic regions. The curves are scary. You won’t believe what you see CLICK HERE TO VIEW”

  2. Very interesting. Poles apart.

    Arctic region is warming significantly, Antarctic region continues to cool. The ‘pause’ has ended in the northern hemisphere and continues in the southern, obviously including Oz. The Tropics are ENSO territory.

    The Global mean combines data from regions with very different climatic behaviour. Averaging hides what is really going on. The Tropics are governed by ENSO events, and the Poles are completely different.

    Will be interesting to see what scientists determine is the cause in regard to this global diversion.

    • Is the Antarctic region actually cooling or is it indeterminate at present? Where is you supporting data from suitable sources i.e. NASA, CSIRO, BOM other to support your claim. Yes there has been some reported cooling in some parts and heating in others.

      • He can’t, because the ‘person who is paid to lie’ is lying. To say the southern hemisphere or that Antarctica is cooling is an outright lie.

        There are (like there are in every data set) a couple of specific places/locations/time periods that may not show as much warming as the global average. The quote taken from the newspaper used to ‘backup’ his lie is:

        ““That a very small part of the planet shows a short-term cooling is not in any way a surprise,” said Ed Hawkins of the National Center for Atmospheric Science at the University of Reading in England. “It’s what we expect from natural variation in the atmospheric circulation interacting with a long-term warming trend.”

    • The Antarctic region isn’t cooling, it is seeing increased glacial growth and sea ice extent. The mechanisms are unclear, however it possibly relates to increased ice deposition (very low temperatures = no atmospheric water to deposit as ice). Remember a great deal of Antarctica is at very high altitudes, so you will see minimal ablation of ice (and possibly greater deposition). The increase in sea ice could be due to changes in oceanic circulation, changes in salinity, or increased ice calving and cryogenesis (again, due to warmer temperatures).

      So yeah, the Antarctic isn’t cooling overall, it is cooling in some very localised areas (god, uh, Weddell sea? Too lazy/busy to trawl through articles atm) but overall the trend is warming. One other thing to consider in this area is lower contribution to ablation from black carbon, which is a significant warming and ice ablation factor in N hemisphere, especially given changes in extent and frequency of boreal forest wildfire events.

      Cheers;

      Anu

      • “… saying the changes they noticed could fit at the extreme end of natural climate variations. That suggests it may take years and further research to determine the direction of temperatures in the Antarctic and what they mean for the world.”

        …“That a very small part of the planet shows a short-term cooling is not in any way a surprise,” said Ed Hawkins of the National Center for Atmospheric Science

        …The authors noted their study covered 1 percent of the Antarctic continent”

    • Just in case any new subscribers are unaware, the poster Xo is a paid representative of the mining industry.

  3. Seems to me if this was such a huge surprise to everyone surely that casts some doubt on the efficacy of climate models and or climate scientist’s understanding of what is going on????…………..just saying

    • On the other bright side, property will become dirt cheap too – less population, less requirements… you know “demand and supply” mantra works in reverse too, no? A bit radical – but hey! whatever works I guess…

  4. Senator Malcolm Roberts surely has a solution to this problem? Maybe something involving relocating heads underground, or a major policy framework around the Nile?

    • Yep, the jetstream has shifted latitude, the airlines know all about it. Just waiting for Norway and the UK to swap weather before I visit the rellies again.

    • Yes. Extremely cold weather in Siberia and Western China – well below norms.

      As for the satellite data, we can now relax as the earth is cooling down as is normal after an el Niño. Anyway, the sun is far less active and that might lead to a long – 30 year – period of global cooling.

      Here is the latest NASA data in a graph – global temperature is back where it was in 1980:

      http://www.thegwpf.com/content/uploads/2016/11/RSS-land-Data.jpg

      • footsore,

        My apologies if the data don’t fit with the picture the MSM would like you to have.

        “RSS satellite monthly global mean surface temperature anomaly dataset shows no global warming for 18 years 9 months since February 1997, though one-third of all anthropogenic forcings have occurred during the period of the Pause.”

        http://www.climatedepot.com/2015/11/04/no-global-warming-at-all-for-18-years-9-months-a-new-record-the-pause-lengthens-again-just-in-time-for-un-summit-in-paris/

        Please do you own homework and don’t assume that Mr Obama has your best interests at heart. 🙂

      • No need to appologise.
        It’s the scientists I pay attention to.
        Specifically the ones that specialise in climate.
        If you look at the list of academic advisers for the website you link to, you won’t find many.
        Climate science isn’t flawless, but if anyone had invented a stock picker that worked as well as the climate models do everyone would have bought one.
        And, if you are interested, the graph you linked to is one of many measurements taken. It, by itself, does not prove anything. It is like tracking one point on Australia’s continent and then using that to model the direction of Australia. The more data sets you have, the better the model. And even then, you only have an estimate, but it is a better estimate than if you relied on that one point. Unless, of course, you wanted to prove that the continental plate that Australia is on is moving in a specific direction, then you’d pick the point that matches your theory. Which is exactly what the website you linked to has done.

      • Once again, you attack the messenger – the website – and ignore the data.

        All these “scientists” of yours are making a living out of pandering to their political class. That is not what science is all about.

        “The REAL FAKE NEWS exposed: ‘97% of scientists agree on climate change’ is an engineered hoax… here’s what the media never told you”

        http://www.naturalnews.com/056116_fake_news_climate_change_science_hoax.html

        Please don’t go ahead and tell me that this is not your favourite website. Kindly read the content and check the references for yourself.

      • Hahahaha, all the climate warming is fake news by a cadre of lee7 scientistas.

        OMG, highlarious.

      • Superunknown,

        The joke is on you. Here is how the NASA satellite data is being “adjusted” – to speed up “warming” by a factor of 18

        http://www.thenewamerican.com/tech/environment/item/22720-global-warming-satellite-data-gets-suspicious-makeover

        Here is an article explaining how thanks to “global warming” and retreating glaciers, we are recovering archeological remains that were buried by growing glaciers hundreds of years ago – i.e. long before the industrial revolution. In the article, it explains how some of them were buried after WW1 – meaning that it was warmer than now before WW1.

        “As Glaciers Retreat, They Give up the Bodies and Artifacts They Swallowed”

        http://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/glaciers-retreat-they-give-mummies-and-artifacts-they-swallowed-180955399/

        It is so funny to see how many people have been duped. I guess it is because they don’t teach history in Australian schools.

  5. Reminds me of the CoreLogic/APM/ABS/Residex home price growth divergence chart, are we sure they haven’t changed their methodology? 😀

    Experts in political polls, housing indices and climate science should never be questioned, they always get it right!

    • Don’t confuse science with economic or wonky social statistical models BB….

      Climate models are nothing like the above…. they don’t assume a thing or use ex nihilo – synthetic a priori based on ideological deductions to measure events.

      Disheveled Marsupial…. moving on…. CoreLogic/APM/ABS/Residex – I mean your surprised that industry spruikers… spruik… really – ??????

      • And you started off so well with your lampooning.
        Until you diverged into your gin soaked prose replete with latin

        Earth to skip: not everyone learnt Latin, did law, or know it well enough to translate every second phrase into English.

        PLEASE EXPLAIN

      • @Superunknown

        That you don’t grok how ex nihilo axioms and synthetic a priori provided the base line wrt main stream economics models [burning bush] and the massive difference wrt climate models [scientific methodology] is a self inflicted state.

        You have a comp and access to the internet…. use it and learn… before popping off about stuff…

        Disheveled Marsupial…. would take you a few minutes to grasp the basics…. off you go…

  6. Forrest GumpMEMBER

    Just wait till the sea levels rise and start knocking on the front doors of the affluent areas around the cities (river and ocean frontage). Banks will pull the plug on funding mortgages and insurance companies will never give you insurance….oh so sad for the rich……..

  7. Fuck denialists are stupid. They’ll unquestioningly accept every nut job conspiracy theory on the intertubes from WTC7 to Sandy Hook but present them with overwhelming scientific consensus and decades of evidence and it’s all a rort to get grant money. For fuck’s sake just how thick are these people? MB should purge the lot of them. If they’re that stupid they have nothing worthwhile to contribute.