Scientists are struggling to understand why a burst of “scary” warming at the North Pole has pushed Arctic temperatures nearly 20C higher than normal for this time of year.
…“We’ve been processing this data since 1958 and we haven’t really seen anything like this at this time of year,” said Rasmus Tonboe, a sea ice expert at the Danish Meteorological Institute. “We are watching the situation and trying to analyse what is going on but it’s very surprising.”
This had reduced the temperature difference between the Arctic and more southerly regions, causing a “wavier” jet stream — a great river of fast-moving air about 10km above the earth that acts as a barrier separating the North Pole from warmer latitudes.
…“That is scary because it is showing us how rapidly the climate system is changing … We expected for a long time to see the ice disappear and the Arctic warm up and perhaps the jet stream doing bizarre things, but it’s happening much faster than I think anyone expected.
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
Santa Claus & the Elves become climate refugees? At least they are skilled craftsmen.
AngryMan
Its just god hugging us a bit closer.
Ino
nah – it’s more along the lines of “who’s the frog in the kettle now, eh?”
The Claw
Arctic heat wave “scary”
That’s not going to work. Change the link to:
“Number of topless girls surges in Arctic regions. The curves are scary. You won’t believe what you see CLICK HERE TO VIEW”
reusachtigeMEMBER
Nice of you to point that out!
SanchezMEMBER
The link is broken, I keep clicking but nothing!
LSWCHPMEMBER
Number 7 will shock you!
Kevin
I believe the quote is now “Chinese Conspiracy”.
zentaoMEMBER
Actually – its a Chinese and Nasa conspiracy.
Xo
Very interesting. Poles apart.
Arctic region is warming significantly, Antarctic region continues to cool. The ‘pause’ has ended in the northern hemisphere and continues in the southern, obviously including Oz. The Tropics are ENSO territory.
The Global mean combines data from regions with very different climatic behaviour. Averaging hides what is really going on. The Tropics are governed by ENSO events, and the Poles are completely different.
Will be interesting to see what scientists determine is the cause in regard to this global diversion.
KentMEMBER
Is the Antarctic region actually cooling or is it indeterminate at present? Where is you supporting data from suitable sources i.e. NASA, CSIRO, BOM other to support your claim. Yes there has been some reported cooling in some parts and heating in others.
glambMEMBER
He can’t, because the ‘person who is paid to lie’ is lying. To say the southern hemisphere or that Antarctica is cooling is an outright lie.
There are (like there are in every data set) a couple of specific places/locations/time periods that may not show as much warming as the global average. The quote taken from the newspaper used to ‘backup’ his lie is:
““That a very small part of the planet shows a short-term cooling is not in any way a surprise,” said Ed Hawkins of the National Center for Atmospheric Science at the University of Reading in England. “It’s what we expect from natural variation in the atmospheric circulation interacting with a long-term warming trend.”
DylanMEMBER
Trump can be the only clear conclusion
Anu
The Antarctic region isn’t cooling, it is seeing increased glacial growth and sea ice extent. The mechanisms are unclear, however it possibly relates to increased ice deposition (very low temperatures = no atmospheric water to deposit as ice). Remember a great deal of Antarctica is at very high altitudes, so you will see minimal ablation of ice (and possibly greater deposition). The increase in sea ice could be due to changes in oceanic circulation, changes in salinity, or increased ice calving and cryogenesis (again, due to warmer temperatures).
So yeah, the Antarctic isn’t cooling overall, it is cooling in some very localised areas (god, uh, Weddell sea? Too lazy/busy to trawl through articles atm) but overall the trend is warming. One other thing to consider in this area is lower contribution to ablation from black carbon, which is a significant warming and ice ablation factor in N hemisphere, especially given changes in extent and frequency of boreal forest wildfire events.
“… saying the changes they noticed could fit at the extreme end of natural climate variations. That suggests it may take years and further research to determine the direction of temperatures in the Antarctic and what they mean for the world.”
…“That a very small part of the planet shows a short-term cooling is not in any way a surprise,” said Ed Hawkins of the National Center for Atmospheric Science
…The authors noted their study covered 1 percent of the Antarctic continent”
Jabba
Just in case any new subscribers are unaware, the poster Xo is a paid representative of the mining industry.
Superunknown
How much permafrost and locked CH4 is in Antarctic?
reusachtigeMEMBER
The Don is going to make the Arctic great again!
Kipron4747
Make the Arctic ablate again! 🙂
DylanMEMBER
igloos all round
LSWCHPMEMBER
Correct. They are round. 🙂
Terror Australis
He will build a wall around the ice caps to keep out global warming.
It will be TREMENDOUS.
davidjwalsh
Seems to me if this was such a huge surprise to everyone surely that casts some doubt on the efficacy of climate models and or climate scientist’s understanding of what is going on????…………..just saying
Cornflakes
It’ll open the North West Passage. Think of the time saved sailing from Asia to Europe.
Terror Australis
Every cloud has a carbon soaked silver lining.
Cornflakes
Well the ships will burn less fuel on their way to Europe and the NE USA, ergo less Carbon dioxide.
Terror Australis
Which is the rough equivalent of pissing into an ocean and calling it high tide but I guess every little bit of carbon abatement helps.
Superunknown
Actually sea borne shipping contributes a non trivial amount of CO2e emissions.
2.2% Seems pretty trivial to me.
(And remember that number is TOTAL global shipping, much of which would not benefit from any opening of the Arctic sea routes)
Adam
Scary? Not so.
Nature will soon liberate us from the cancer that is Industrial society.
Ino
On the other bright side, property will become dirt cheap too – less population, less requirements… you know “demand and supply” mantra works in reverse too, no? A bit radical – but hey! whatever works I guess…
the_bystanderMEMBER
Senator Malcolm Roberts surely has a solution to this problem? Maybe something involving relocating heads underground, or a major policy framework around the Nile?
footsore
I wanted to find out how this might affect the Siberian permafrost. It turns out the Siberia is well below average at the moment.
Yep, the jetstream has shifted latitude, the airlines know all about it. Just waiting for Norway and the UK to swap weather before I visit the rellies again.
Alfred
Yes. Extremely cold weather in Siberia and Western China – well below norms.
As for the satellite data, we can now relax as the earth is cooling down as is normal after an el Niño. Anyway, the sun is far less active and that might lead to a long – 30 year – period of global cooling.
Here is the latest NASA data in a graph – global temperature is back where it was in 1980:
Not the best website there. I don’t think that even Xo would link to that one.
Alfred
footsore,
My apologies if the data don’t fit with the picture the MSM would like you to have.
“RSS satellite monthly global mean surface temperature anomaly dataset shows no global warming for 18 years 9 months since February 1997, though one-third of all anthropogenic forcings have occurred during the period of the Pause.”
Please do you own homework and don’t assume that Mr Obama has your best interests at heart. 🙂
footsore
No need to appologise.
It’s the scientists I pay attention to.
Specifically the ones that specialise in climate.
If you look at the list of academic advisers for the website you link to, you won’t find many.
Climate science isn’t flawless, but if anyone had invented a stock picker that worked as well as the climate models do everyone would have bought one.
And, if you are interested, the graph you linked to is one of many measurements taken. It, by itself, does not prove anything. It is like tracking one point on Australia’s continent and then using that to model the direction of Australia. The more data sets you have, the better the model. And even then, you only have an estimate, but it is a better estimate than if you relied on that one point. Unless, of course, you wanted to prove that the continental plate that Australia is on is moving in a specific direction, then you’d pick the point that matches your theory. Which is exactly what the website you linked to has done.
Alfred
Once again, you attack the messenger – the website – and ignore the data.
All these “scientists” of yours are making a living out of pandering to their political class. That is not what science is all about.
“The REAL FAKE NEWS exposed: ‘97% of scientists agree on climate change’ is an engineered hoax… here’s what the media never told you”
Here is an article explaining how thanks to “global warming” and retreating glaciers, we are recovering archeological remains that were buried by growing glaciers hundreds of years ago – i.e. long before the industrial revolution. In the article, it explains how some of them were buried after WW1 – meaning that it was warmer than now before WW1.
“As Glaciers Retreat, They Give up the Bodies and Artifacts They Swallowed”
Reminds me of the CoreLogic/APM/ABS/Residex home price growth divergence chart, are we sure they haven’t changed their methodology? 😀
Experts in political polls, housing indices and climate science should never be questioned, they always get it right!
skippy
Don’t confuse science with economic or wonky social statistical models BB….
Climate models are nothing like the above…. they don’t assume a thing or use ex nihilo – synthetic a priori based on ideological deductions to measure events.
Disheveled Marsupial…. moving on…. CoreLogic/APM/ABS/Residex – I mean your surprised that industry spruikers… spruik… really – ??????
Superunknown
And you started off so well with your lampooning.
Until you diverged into your gin soaked prose replete with latin
Earth to skip: not everyone learnt Latin, did law, or know it well enough to translate every second phrase into English.
PLEASE EXPLAIN
skippy
@Superunknown
That you don’t grok how ex nihilo axioms and synthetic a priori provided the base line wrt main stream economics models [burning bush] and the massive difference wrt climate models [scientific methodology] is a self inflicted state.
You have a comp and access to the internet…. use it and learn… before popping off about stuff…
Disheveled Marsupial…. would take you a few minutes to grasp the basics…. off you go…
Forrest GumpMEMBER
Just wait till the sea levels rise and start knocking on the front doors of the affluent areas around the cities (river and ocean frontage). Banks will pull the plug on funding mortgages and insurance companies will never give you insurance….oh so sad for the rich……..
Young Ok
medicare levy becomes levy levy
bolstroodMEMBER
You’re not allowed to say Medicare any more.Ask Mark Rogers, a Sydney grandfather, who the Federal government is threatening with legal action because he has a small web site to protect Medica…… knock at door…… fed police….
Young Ok
Wouldn’t anti bullying legislation take precendence?
Young Ok
Wouldn’t anti bullying legislation take precedence?
The Lorax
Fuck denialists are stupid. They’ll unquestioningly accept every nut job conspiracy theory on the intertubes from WTC7 to Sandy Hook but present them with overwhelming scientific consensus and decades of evidence and it’s all a rort to get grant money. For fuck’s sake just how thick are these people? MB should purge the lot of them. If they’re that stupid they have nothing worthwhile to contribute.
Santa Claus & the Elves become climate refugees? At least they are skilled craftsmen.
Its just god hugging us a bit closer.
nah – it’s more along the lines of “who’s the frog in the kettle now, eh?”
Arctic heat wave “scary”
That’s not going to work. Change the link to:
“Number of topless girls surges in Arctic regions. The curves are scary. You won’t believe what you see CLICK HERE TO VIEW”
Nice of you to point that out!
The link is broken, I keep clicking but nothing!
Number 7 will shock you!
I believe the quote is now “Chinese Conspiracy”.
Actually – its a Chinese and Nasa conspiracy.
Very interesting. Poles apart.
Arctic region is warming significantly, Antarctic region continues to cool. The ‘pause’ has ended in the northern hemisphere and continues in the southern, obviously including Oz. The Tropics are ENSO territory.
The Global mean combines data from regions with very different climatic behaviour. Averaging hides what is really going on. The Tropics are governed by ENSO events, and the Poles are completely different.
Will be interesting to see what scientists determine is the cause in regard to this global diversion.
Is the Antarctic region actually cooling or is it indeterminate at present? Where is you supporting data from suitable sources i.e. NASA, CSIRO, BOM other to support your claim. Yes there has been some reported cooling in some parts and heating in others.
He can’t, because the ‘person who is paid to lie’ is lying. To say the southern hemisphere or that Antarctica is cooling is an outright lie.
There are (like there are in every data set) a couple of specific places/locations/time periods that may not show as much warming as the global average. The quote taken from the newspaper used to ‘backup’ his lie is:
““That a very small part of the planet shows a short-term cooling is not in any way a surprise,” said Ed Hawkins of the National Center for Atmospheric Science at the University of Reading in England. “It’s what we expect from natural variation in the atmospheric circulation interacting with a long-term warming trend.”
Trump can be the only clear conclusion
The Antarctic region isn’t cooling, it is seeing increased glacial growth and sea ice extent. The mechanisms are unclear, however it possibly relates to increased ice deposition (very low temperatures = no atmospheric water to deposit as ice). Remember a great deal of Antarctica is at very high altitudes, so you will see minimal ablation of ice (and possibly greater deposition). The increase in sea ice could be due to changes in oceanic circulation, changes in salinity, or increased ice calving and cryogenesis (again, due to warmer temperatures).
So yeah, the Antarctic isn’t cooling overall, it is cooling in some very localised areas (god, uh, Weddell sea? Too lazy/busy to trawl through articles atm) but overall the trend is warming. One other thing to consider in this area is lower contribution to ablation from black carbon, which is a significant warming and ice ablation factor in N hemisphere, especially given changes in extent and frequency of boreal forest wildfire events.
Cheers;
Anu
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-20/antarctic-peninsula-cooled-in-past-two-decades-as-world-warmed
https://kenskingdom.wordpress.com/2016/11/04/poles-apart/
“… saying the changes they noticed could fit at the extreme end of natural climate variations. That suggests it may take years and further research to determine the direction of temperatures in the Antarctic and what they mean for the world.”
…“That a very small part of the planet shows a short-term cooling is not in any way a surprise,” said Ed Hawkins of the National Center for Atmospheric Science
…The authors noted their study covered 1 percent of the Antarctic continent”
Just in case any new subscribers are unaware, the poster Xo is a paid representative of the mining industry.
How much permafrost and locked CH4 is in Antarctic?
The Don is going to make the Arctic great again!
Make the Arctic ablate again! 🙂
igloos all round
Correct. They are round. 🙂
He will build a wall around the ice caps to keep out global warming.
It will be TREMENDOUS.
Seems to me if this was such a huge surprise to everyone surely that casts some doubt on the efficacy of climate models and or climate scientist’s understanding of what is going on????…………..just saying
It’ll open the North West Passage. Think of the time saved sailing from Asia to Europe.
Every cloud has a carbon soaked silver lining.
Well the ships will burn less fuel on their way to Europe and the NE USA, ergo less Carbon dioxide.
Which is the rough equivalent of pissing into an ocean and calling it high tide but I guess every little bit of carbon abatement helps.
Actually sea borne shipping contributes a non trivial amount of CO2e emissions.
” The International Maritime Organization (IMO) estimates that Carbon dioxide emissions from shipping were equal to 2.2% of the global human-made emissions in 2012″
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Environmental_impact_of_shipping
2.2% Seems pretty trivial to me.
(And remember that number is TOTAL global shipping, much of which would not benefit from any opening of the Arctic sea routes)
Scary? Not so.
Nature will soon liberate us from the cancer that is Industrial society.
On the other bright side, property will become dirt cheap too – less population, less requirements… you know “demand and supply” mantra works in reverse too, no? A bit radical – but hey! whatever works I guess…
Senator Malcolm Roberts surely has a solution to this problem? Maybe something involving relocating heads underground, or a major policy framework around the Nile?
I wanted to find out how this might affect the Siberian permafrost. It turns out the Siberia is well below average at the moment.
https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2016/11/18/while-the-north-pole-warms-beyond-the-melting-point-its-freakishly-cold-in-siberia/
Yep, the jetstream has shifted latitude, the airlines know all about it. Just waiting for Norway and the UK to swap weather before I visit the rellies again.
Yes. Extremely cold weather in Siberia and Western China – well below norms.
As for the satellite data, we can now relax as the earth is cooling down as is normal after an el Niño. Anyway, the sun is far less active and that might lead to a long – 30 year – period of global cooling.
Here is the latest NASA data in a graph – global temperature is back where it was in 1980:
http://www.thegwpf.com/content/uploads/2016/11/RSS-land-Data.jpg
Not the best website there. I don’t think that even Xo would link to that one.
footsore,
My apologies if the data don’t fit with the picture the MSM would like you to have.
“RSS satellite monthly global mean surface temperature anomaly dataset shows no global warming for 18 years 9 months since February 1997, though one-third of all anthropogenic forcings have occurred during the period of the Pause.”
http://www.climatedepot.com/2015/11/04/no-global-warming-at-all-for-18-years-9-months-a-new-record-the-pause-lengthens-again-just-in-time-for-un-summit-in-paris/
Please do you own homework and don’t assume that Mr Obama has your best interests at heart. 🙂
No need to appologise.
It’s the scientists I pay attention to.
Specifically the ones that specialise in climate.
If you look at the list of academic advisers for the website you link to, you won’t find many.
Climate science isn’t flawless, but if anyone had invented a stock picker that worked as well as the climate models do everyone would have bought one.
And, if you are interested, the graph you linked to is one of many measurements taken. It, by itself, does not prove anything. It is like tracking one point on Australia’s continent and then using that to model the direction of Australia. The more data sets you have, the better the model. And even then, you only have an estimate, but it is a better estimate than if you relied on that one point. Unless, of course, you wanted to prove that the continental plate that Australia is on is moving in a specific direction, then you’d pick the point that matches your theory. Which is exactly what the website you linked to has done.
Once again, you attack the messenger – the website – and ignore the data.
All these “scientists” of yours are making a living out of pandering to their political class. That is not what science is all about.
“The REAL FAKE NEWS exposed: ‘97% of scientists agree on climate change’ is an engineered hoax… here’s what the media never told you”
http://www.naturalnews.com/056116_fake_news_climate_change_science_hoax.html
Please don’t go ahead and tell me that this is not your favourite website. Kindly read the content and check the references for yourself.
Hahahaha, all the climate warming is fake news by a cadre of lee7 scientistas.
OMG, highlarious.
Superunknown,
The joke is on you. Here is how the NASA satellite data is being “adjusted” – to speed up “warming” by a factor of 18
http://www.thenewamerican.com/tech/environment/item/22720-global-warming-satellite-data-gets-suspicious-makeover
Here is an article explaining how thanks to “global warming” and retreating glaciers, we are recovering archeological remains that were buried by growing glaciers hundreds of years ago – i.e. long before the industrial revolution. In the article, it explains how some of them were buried after WW1 – meaning that it was warmer than now before WW1.
“As Glaciers Retreat, They Give up the Bodies and Artifacts They Swallowed”
http://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/glaciers-retreat-they-give-mummies-and-artifacts-they-swallowed-180955399/
It is so funny to see how many people have been duped. I guess it is because they don’t teach history in Australian schools.
Here is the probable mechanism, stopping pollution will make it worse in the short term. Bring back acid rain !
http://arctic-news.blogspot.com.au/p/the-mechanism.html
I’m guessing that is global dimming? Remember that pollution causes creation of O3, which has a net warming effect in the troposphere.
Better get me CFC deodorant going then…
Where we really supposed to care based on 58 years of data?
Can you clean the data by modifying for the following IVs?
Axial Tilt
http://www.smh.com.au/technology/sci-tech/global-warming-is-changing-the-earths-tilt-20160413-go5tgb.html
Seasonality – adjusted seasonality due to variations in seasonal measurements and markers
Reminds me of the CoreLogic/APM/ABS/Residex home price growth divergence chart, are we sure they haven’t changed their methodology? 😀
Experts in political polls, housing indices and climate science should never be questioned, they always get it right!
Don’t confuse science with economic or wonky social statistical models BB….
Climate models are nothing like the above…. they don’t assume a thing or use ex nihilo – synthetic a priori based on ideological deductions to measure events.
Disheveled Marsupial…. moving on…. CoreLogic/APM/ABS/Residex – I mean your surprised that industry spruikers… spruik… really – ??????
And you started off so well with your lampooning.
Until you diverged into your gin soaked prose replete with latin
Earth to skip: not everyone learnt Latin, did law, or know it well enough to translate every second phrase into English.
PLEASE EXPLAIN
@Superunknown
That you don’t grok how ex nihilo axioms and synthetic a priori provided the base line wrt main stream economics models [burning bush] and the massive difference wrt climate models [scientific methodology] is a self inflicted state.
You have a comp and access to the internet…. use it and learn… before popping off about stuff…
Disheveled Marsupial…. would take you a few minutes to grasp the basics…. off you go…
Just wait till the sea levels rise and start knocking on the front doors of the affluent areas around the cities (river and ocean frontage). Banks will pull the plug on funding mortgages and insurance companies will never give you insurance….oh so sad for the rich……..
medicare levy becomes levy levy
You’re not allowed to say Medicare any more.Ask Mark Rogers, a Sydney grandfather, who the Federal government is threatening with legal action because he has a small web site to protect Medica…… knock at door…… fed police….
Wouldn’t anti bullying legislation take precendence?
Wouldn’t anti bullying legislation take precedence?
Fuck denialists are stupid. They’ll unquestioningly accept every nut job conspiracy theory on the intertubes from WTC7 to Sandy Hook but present them with overwhelming scientific consensus and decades of evidence and it’s all a rort to get grant money. For fuck’s sake just how thick are these people? MB should purge the lot of them. If they’re that stupid they have nothing worthwhile to contribute.
WTC7? What are you talking about?
I think he means World Trade Centre building 7