The evidence is in and the conclusion unavoidable: the Turnbull Government is politically inept, policy inept and national interest inept. Given ineptitude is perhaps the last thing that we would have associated with such a successful businessman, it is interesting to examine why the government Malcolm Turnbull leads is so incompetent. Here’s my top ten list:
10. Existing in the shadow of John Howard. The Turnbull Government is like a second generation squanderer of family wealth. It has not had to earn its ideology, it inherited it from a wildly successful John Howard. As such, it believes that if it just does the same things – stops the boats, fixes the Budget, makes war on bludgers – it will succeed. Lost on the second generation is that the Howard era was not born into its values. They developed as he ruled and were as much contextual as they were his doing. Thus, stop the boats is now a non-issue given Labor has given in. Fixing the Budget is no longer possible without crashing the economy given it lacks both the rampant consumer and mining booms enjoyed by John Howard. Making war upon bludgers is now on the wrong side of history as the triumph of the West has instead turned into the agony of the plutocrats. The Turnbull Government has failed to recognise that times have changed but the Coalition outlook hasn’t and it is now out of step.
9. Busted Parliament. Filled with crackpot cross-benchers and a hostile senate, the busted Parliament is like herding cats. Insiders would probably put this at number one but that’s because they’re stupid. The Gillard Government operated with an even more difficult matrix and managed to pass some of the most innovative and high quality policy in modern times including carbon pricing and education reform. It mishandled the politics but not the policy. Still, it is a challenge to manage such disparate interests and that distracts from the job of daily government.
8. Broken executive. A kiss-arse bureaucracy that is highly paid to shut up allows ministers to pursue all kinds of Narcissistic drivel.
7. Rent seeker allies. I was stunned recently when Michael Kroger chewed out the Business Council of Australia for failing to seek rents. This is an insight into how the Coalition thinks. It sees business as its natural allies and assumes that businesses ought to be campaigning on its behalf. This reached extreme levels under the Abbott Government when the BCA was allowed to write up the tax reform agenda. This is really stupid. The Coalition is a political party that represents the people. In assuming that individual businesses are its ally it is equally assuming that markets are not. That breaks down what makes markets useful to society as sectional interests rise above competition and efficiency. People can see it in no banking royal commission, in no negative gearing reform, in inept big business tax giveaways, the same people that vote the Coalition in and out of office.
6. Bad economy. When an economy is weak, what were mild policy mistakes in the past become catastrophic failures in the present. The entire place becomes more volatile as policy and polls become intertwined in negative feedback loops. To manage this you need a clear understanding of what is driving the weak economy and how to fix it (even if it takes years) so that the polity can be attached to a narrative and mission that can see off the volatility. The Turnbull Government has none of it.
5. Murdoch circle jerk. A tacit alliance between the Coalition and Murdoch Press has been very bad for the former. It was worse under the Abbott Government but still exists today. The alliance creates a policy echo chamber in which deluded government officials can find approval for stupid ideas, and succor when criticised elsewhere. It robs the government of a valuable alternative perspective on the national interest by which it could judge its own actions. In short, it leaves the Turnbull Government believing its own bullshit.
4. The Loon Pond. Related is the rise of the Loon Pond. This group of soft-fascist Coalition troglodytes has no idea what makes Australia tick and thinks it can fashion it in its own image. Worse, since the dumping of Tony Abbott it is now slighted and intent upon revenge. Its agenda of protecting big business mates, rolling back social progression and dividing to rule is a complete contradiction with Turnbull and his history. The division makes the government a ridiculously easy political target and makes any policy-making a tortured, leaky, disunited affair.
3. Competent Opposition. Much of the above might have passed unnoticed were it not for a competent Opposition. Shorten’s policy platform is very far from perfect, and continues far too much in the way of entitlement thinking, but his reform agenda is significant and plausibly a part of the answer to Australia’s chronically weak economy. Since the election Shorten has grown in confidence and his shadow treasurer remains probably the most persuasive politician in the country. In short, they are credible and that highlights how inept is the Turnbull Government.
2. No process. The Turnbull Government has run in circles time and again on nearly all of its policy initiatives because it has no policy process. It’s not rocket science. Decide your goals. Debate internally how to get there and determine the policy path. Begin a public debate around the issues and lead it towards your conclusion. When the public is convinced, launch your policy and see it through. Given the public is on side, it will support you against criticism.
1. Weak leader. Last and actually first, the Turnbull Government is inept because so is Malcolm Turnbull. He hasn’t had the ticker to face down the Loon Pond. This, in turn, exposes a lack of moral gravity to carry his party, let alone the nation. Thus he regularly adopts positions that are indefensible in light of his own liberal profile and has no end of thought bubble policies that lack any kind of central narrative or plan. He is a fine orator yet lacks any vision to deploy it on. He is clearly whip smart but is not a manager’s butt so is unable to rally troops to a cause he does not have.
Some may question how I can draw this conclusion so early in the new government. It’s easy. It is all of the same problems that we’ve seen in the Turnbull Government since he rose to power. Moreover, in eight short weeks he has:
- let a vital national immigration debate be led by crackpots;
- has completely butchered the need for bank scrutiny, and
- has launched a hopelessly out of step policy agenda for Budget repair.
It’s only getting worse for Malcolm and there must be grave doubts that he will see out this term.
