Citi has some nice charts on the state of play in the eastern gas market:
GLNG steady at ~72% nameplate capacity at end of August. Pipeline data shows GLNG averaged ~850TJ/d (~5.1mtpa or 65% nameplate) in August, with prior max flow of 1,013TJ/d in July remaining the high water mark. Fairview production averaged 443TJ/day in August still below nameplate capacity (revised to ~590TJ/day). We expect GLNG ramp up speed to be dictated by contractual nominations and Roma de-watering, with Fairview production likely to exceed nameplate when APLNG T2 starts up, and APLNG starts lifting gas instead of banking.
Note the bottom right hand chart. There are two more of those big red step ups in demand coming in Q4 as STO and ORG bring on the last two Curtis Island trains. ORG has the gas but STO?
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific's leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
