From Macquarie today:
Media reported that NDRC, NEA and CMSSB are going to hold a meeting this Thursday on “stabilising coal supply and preventing coal prices from rising too quickly.” Major Chinese coal miners, including Shenhua and China Coal, and major power groups are invited to attend the meeting with relevant government officials from major coal provinces like Shanxi, Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia. It is expected that some of the big coal miners that qualify as “advanced capacity” may be allowed to lift the production rate from the current “276 days” before power demand picks up again in 4Q, but details have not yet been disclosed. This is consistent with messages that have been sent from the NDRC and the coal industry association over the recent months that the Chinese government doesn’t want to see prices rising too quickly impact their efforts to reduce excessive capacity, in line with our expectation that we will see intervention once the thermal coal price (5,500kcal) reaches more than Rmb500/t.
A couple of charts from UBS showing this year’s wild swings in Chinese coal imports that have driven prices mad:
