From Dun and Bradstreet:
Dun & Bradstreet’s Business Expectations Index, the average of the survey’s measures of Sales, Profits, Employment and Capital Investment, has consolidated at 12.3 points for the third quarter of 2016, compared to 12.7 points for Q2 2016, and down from 17.6 points in Q3 2015. The figure is 5.0 points above the 10-year average of 7.3 points.
The Actuals Index halved to 6.1 points from 12.7 points last quarter, and brought an end to three consecutive quarters of growth. The Actual Employment Index plummeted to 2.3 points – its lowest level since late-2013, with the Construction and Retail sectors reporting more decreases than increases in staff numbers. Both sectors maintain a weak outlook for the quarter ahead.
According to Stephen Koukoulas, Economic Advisor to Dun & Bradstreet: “The slide in business expectations over the past year appears to have been arrested in the most recent survey. It should be noted that the survey was conducted prior to the shock Brexit vote, so the results must be treated with caution.”
Koukoulas also observed “there were some mildly encouraging signs, with expectations for capital expenditure edging up from the recent low point. There were, worryingly, signs of further weakness in expected sales and selling prices, the latter of which points to ongoing low inflation.”
Here are the charts:
Pre-Brexit and election. Next month will be worse. Full report.
