As summarised earlier, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has today released its labour force report for June, which registered a 7,900 rise in total employment but a 0.1% rise in the headline unemployment rate to 5.8%.
The headline result was roughly in line with analysts’ expectations, who expected jobs growth of 10,000 and an unemployment rate of 5.8%.
In trend terms, the unemployment rate fell ever so slightly from 5.74% to 5.73%:
Again, total employment rose a seasonally adjusted 7,900 to 11,939,600. For the first time in five months this was driven entirely by full-time jobs:
The participation rate rose ever so slightly:
The trend in total employment also remains fairly flat after October’s and November’s numberwang:
Annual employment growth continues to weaken and is being driven almost exclusively by part-time employment:
As shown above, trend full-time jobs growth has slumped to just 0.83% versus 4.0% growth for part-time jobs.
The proportion of the population in full-time work has also hit a fresh record low:
The housing bubble epicentres of New South Wales (Sydney) and Victoria (Melbourne) continue to drive virtually all of the jobs growth over the past year, accounting for 54% and 47% respectively of national jobs growth in seasonally adjusted terms:
And South Australia and Tasmania have the highest seasonally adjusted unemployment, whereas New South Wales (Sydney) is again leading the nation (see next chart).
The state seasonally-adjusted figures are notoriously volatile and subject to a big margin of error. As such, the below chart shows the ABS’ trend unemployment rates, which again shows the bubble epicentre of New South Wales with by far the lowest unemployment, South Australia and Tasmania with the highest, Western Australia with below average unemployment, Victoria with average unemployment, and Queensland with above-average unemployment (and rising):
The aggregate number of hours worked fell in seasonally adjusted terms, declining by 4.3 million hours or 0.26% in June. Moreover, hours worked have risen by just 0.6% over the past year:
The below chart, which tracks the annual change in hours worked on a trend basis, paints a sobering picture. It shows that New South Wales (Sydney) has driven the lion’s share of growth in hours worked, with all of the other jurisdictions showing minimal or negative growth. But at least the trends are improving in South Australia, Queensland and Victoria:
Average hours worked is also at a record low:
And after rebounding, workforce participation has also begun to trend down:
To round things out, the next chart summarises the annual change in the key employment aggregates on a seasonally-adjusted basis, which shows the improvement over the year in most areas:
Nothing much has changed from last month’s release. The lion’s share of jobs growth remains part-time. Growth in aggregate hours worked remains anaemic. Labor force participation is now falling. And virtually all of the employment growth is coming from the two housing bubble epicentres of New South Wales and Victoria, whose booms are on borrowed time.
The immediate outlook for employment growth is also poor, given the slump in hours worked:
Looking further ahead, we still expect the housing-induced boom in employment to reverse late this year and next as dwelling construction and prices begin to fall, coinciding with the ongoing contraction of mining investment and the closure of the car industry.
