MB Radio: The Budget, the Rate Cut and the Ugly

Upon the release of the 2016 Federal Budget Gunnamatta spoke with David Llewellyn-Smith, Leith van Onselen and Callam Pickering of CP Economics about the underpinnings of the budget, the integrity of some of its assumptions and forecasts, and the risks to the economy over the coming year and beyond.

In a 45 minute discussion the speakers consider real estate prices, inflation and wages growth as well as the productivity measures a government may implement in an attempt to drive growth, and the implications changing global markets and the upcoming federal election have for the course of Australian economic policy.

The discussion comes in 2 parts, both available in MP3 and Ogg.

MP3

Pt1

Pt2

 

Ogg

Pt1

Pt2

Comments

  1. brettnicholsonMEMBER

    Great commentary – David great call in the AUD at 78c
    I think we will see the AUD touch 3990 in this cycle.

    • .3990? So that US$100 million ‘home’ in Vaucluse will then only cost US$50 mio….Or more likely it will cost A$250 million, as Australian assets sales get cheaper and cheaper in local currency terms.
      Why can’t the Government/RBA see where their misguided policies are taking you?

  2. Thank you gents !

    I would only have one area of (big one) difference to your political outlook.

    I think IF Labor are able to cobble together a gubmint, there will be substantial political capital to reward various reforms. One issue is that if chosen well,Labor reform would be very well received in the regions.

    The regions have or will have soon, high levels of renting, underwater mortgages, underemployment, youth unemployment and xenophobia.

    Labor can win back the working people of the bush if they play this smart.

  3. The second part (mp3) went mono whenever CP,LVO,DLS spoke. But Gunna’s voice was in Dolby Surround Sound (Stereo actually) 🙂

    Otherwise, a great podcast.

    • GunnamattaMEMBER

      What actually happened was that I opened up a skype call with DLS, LVO and CP and we spoke for an hour or so and I recorded the call.

      I took my kids swimming and came home later that night to start editing and made an amazing discovery – that I had recorded an almost perfect echo of everyone talking about a second after. I very nearly called/emailed them to say it was off and that the sound had been stuffed (we often have sound issues). Then another old mate – who is a retired ABC sound technician – happened to call up and I explained to him what I had. He told me to swing the pan either far left or far right and see if I still had the echo.

      That got rid of it, but to bring the discussion back so that there was still something over both sides (soundwise) I had to use mono, and I re-recorded my questions (hence the stereo).

      So there you have the story of the discussion.

      We often have sound issues – usually relating to our mikes, our wifi, our internet etc. But we get there in the end.

      Thanks for the compliments everyone – I enjoy doing them, and I think David and Leith do. They are a little primitive soundwise, but the content is invariably very good. It was very good to have Callam for this one – he was a pleasure to chat with and as you can hear got into the swing of the discussion and had plenty of observations to make.

      • arescarti42MEMBER

        I agree the content is excellent, but the audio quality does let it down.

        Regarding the problem that Mav refers to, you can fix it by either cutting out the channel that didn’t have DLS/LVO/CP on it (creating a mono channel recording, which will play through both speakers on a stereo system) or by duplicating the channel with DLS/LVO/CP on it to both left and right channels, creating a dual channel mono recording. Non specialist mics only record in mono, so it doesn’t matter either way. It also makes the files smaller.

        E.g.: https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/3827353/Final-Part-2-Macrobusiness-Budget-May-2016-CP-DLS-LVO-Ogg.ogg

        One thing you may want to consider is what’s called a ‘double ender’, whereby you carry out your skype call as normal, but each participant records the conversation (just their voice) from their end, using say the voice memo app on a smartphone. At the end of the conversation, each participant then transfers their audio file across to the editor, who combines the audio tracks so it sounds like they’re all in the same room.

        The benefit with this is the audio quality isn’t reliant on anyone’s flaky wifi, crappy mic, slow internet, or skype’s lossy audio compression.

        I’m more than happy to give you a hand if you’d like.

  4. Paddy Finucane

    Great to have Callam Pickering with his insights along with the MB Mariachi band

    Cheers (keep it up – these are good)

  5. CharlieChaplin

    Thanks guys lucid and fact based as always. How on Earth will we ever break this political malaise. Depressing was a word that came up quite often in this podcaste and I agree. I just wish the journalists interviewing these guys had a bit more spike and knowledge to really belittle and shame them into some kind of action.

    • CharlieChaplin

      Ever thought of putting on iTunes and doing them as a regular thing. I would bet my bottom dollar it would become pretty popular quickly, and would lift your profile.

      • GunnamattaMEMBER

        How do we get them on Itunes?

        They used to all go there automatically – I think CB sorted that – but I have lost track of how to reinstate that

      • CharlieChaplin

        Sorry G I’m no tech head, but I know that some of these podcasts can become wildly popular. Stuart Gary an ex ABC journalist runs a podcast on astronomy formally called StarStuff now spacetime. I think he gets over a million downloads a year. Isn’t there a show called top of the pods on Rn national? They pick a series of podcasts to broad cast each week. You could lobby to be put on that. I’ve come across some of what you say from other sources but never so well expressed and consolidated. Could you do something on the election. It would beat the crap out of Fran Kelly and ABCs the party room, and be more informative then say the insiders. Plug your website and names every fifteen minutes or so, and at the end or beginning of the cast. You guys provide something unique and of a high standard and it deserves as much coverage as possible. A breath of fresh air. Keep up the good work. PS I wonder what a good catchy name might be?

  6. Diogenes the CynicMEMBER

    Great discussion fellows. Loads better than the Post budget wraps by the MSM.

  7. Something about the answer lying back in time, for Flawse!

    The devastating economy of the 21st century is finally forcing economists to admit the smallest possibility of what should have been their core philosophy dating back to the 60’s, if not the 50’s. Today, all the signs are there: “money printing” that not only doesn’t budge inflation but is completely overwhelmed by it in the other direction; global commodity collapse; global trade retreating at a quickening pace; deflationary economic trends that go on year after year and only get worse, spilling into rising social chaos. (For orthodox economists that should) all add up to one thing – declining “money” supply. It is so obvious in the very way that the orthodox textbook describes it; there is every reason economists should be all over this…. except for the fact orthodox economic theory didn’t and doesn’t want to be.
    Because of that self-interest a narrow monetary and economic view survives to this day. Chair Yellen forces herself to believe that $1.7 trillion in balance sheet expansion is somehow “stimulus” and that the 5% unemployment rate is the actual operative condition of the US economy.
    From the Eurodollar perspective; the one that sees 2008 properly not as a hard and deeper business cycle but as a paradigm shift in global money, Trump, Sanders, and global social upheaval were all expected even if their exact names and places were blanked out at the start. Unfortunately, what is further expected now is that this might only be the beginning. “Declinism” isn’t destiny, it is a choice; one that was made fifty years ago.

    http://www.realclearmarkets.com/articles/2016/05/06/the_global_social_upheaval_is_just_beginning_102156.html

  8. Just listened to Scott Morrison on Insiders. My confidence is undermined in many ways on many levels. Political operator only, has no clue about economics at all. Sad

    • Torchwood1979

      He reminds me of Peter Reith in that he views everything from a political and ideological framework and can’t balance this with an understanding of the economic reality. This shows with his eight week, get-to-the-election budget.

      Morrison can produce some good sound bites for the masses, but extended interviews and blustering through Question Time shows that he lacks the intellectual capacity required for the Treasury Portfolio.

  9. Great commentary, thanks for making the effort.
    Callam is particularly good in that form of media, I hope you bring him in more in future.