Investor retreat continues for Syd/Melb property

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By Leith van Onselen

Sydney’s speculator frenzy continues to fizzle-out, with today’s Lending Finance data for March, released by the ABS, revealing that the share of loans going to New South Wales investors registered their ninth consecutive monthly decline; with the annual value of investor mortgages also continuing to fall.

As shown below, the annual value of investor loans in New South Wales (read Sydney) fell for the sixth consecutive month, with Victoria (read Melbourne) – the second hottest market – also retracing, albeit more slowly:

ScreenHunter_12970 May. 13 11.37

According to the ABS, investor finance commitments in New South Wales in March were 15.0% lower than March 2015.

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As at March 2016, investors accounted for a still-staggering 54.8% of total housing finance commitments (excluding refinancings) in New South Wales (Sydney), although this was down sharply from the record 60.3% share posted in June 2015. Victoria’s (read Melbourne’s) share of investor mortgages also fell to 46.3% in March, down from July’s 50.5% peak:

ScreenHunter_12971 May. 13 11.43

Putting the two charts together for New South Wales (Sydney) produces the following:

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ScreenHunter_12972 May. 13 11.44

Whereas the turnaround in Victoria (Melbourne) is weaker:

ScreenHunter_12973 May. 13 11.45

Slowly, the unprecedented investor bubble that for so long juiced the housing market is deflating.

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.