Roy Morgan 50/50 as double dissolution is go

From the AFR:

Australians will go to the polls on July 2 in the first double dissolution election in almost three decades after the Senate refused to pass a key industrial relations bill designed to boost the regulation of unions.

With Labor and the Greens opposed, and the government needing the support of at least six of the eight Senate independent crossbenchers, the government was two votes short of the numbers required to re-establish the Australian Building and Construction Commission. It was rejected by 36 votes to 34.

Consequently, Australia is now in a quasi-election campaign for a full-Senate election still 10 weeks away.

And from RM today:

Morgan Poll on Federal Voting Intention - April 18, 2016

In mid-April L-NP support is 50% (down 2.5%) cf. ALP 50% (up 2.5%) on a two-party preferred basis following debate about the reintroduction of the ABCC (Australian Building & Construction Commission) and Labor calls for a Royal Commission into the Banking and Finance industries. If a Federal Election were held now the result would be too close to call and would likely result in a hung Parliament.

Primary support for the L-NP is 40.5% (down 1.5%) with ALP at 32% (up 1%). Support for the Greens is up 1% to 14%, Nick Xenophon Team (NXT) 4.5% (unchanged; 22.5% in South Australia), Katter’s Australian Party is 0.5% (unchanged), Palmer United Party is 0% (unchanged) and Independents/ Others are at 8.5% (down 0.5%).

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is down this week – down 7pts to 99 with 40.5% (down 2%) of Australians saying Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’ and 41.5% (up 5%) saying Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’. This is the first time the Government Confidence Rating has dipped below 100 since Malcolm Turnbull became Prime Minister in mid-September 2015.

This week’s Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the last two weekends, April 9/10 & 16/17, 2016, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,083 Australian electors.

Analysis by Gender

Analysis by Gender shows men favouring the L-NP easily while women are now easily favouring the ALP.  Men: L-NP 53% (down 3%) cf. ALP 47% (up 3%); Women: ALP 53% (up 2%) cf. L-NP 47% (down 2%).

Analysis by Age group

Analysis by Age group shows that Turnbull’s biggest problem remains convincing younger voters to support the L-NP. The ALP leads with electors under 50: 18-24yr olds (ALP 60% cf. L-NP 40%) and also leads amongst 25-34yr olds (ALP 59.5% cf. L-NP 40.5%) and 35-49yr olds (ALP 52.5% cf. L-NP 47.5%). However, the L-NP leads with the older age groups: 50-64yr olds (L-NP 53% cf. ALP 47%) and easily amongst those aged 65+ (L-NP 61% cf. ALP 39%).

Analysis by States

Despite the deadlock Federally, the L-NP holds a two-party preferred lead in five Australian States with only Victoria favouring the ALP. The L-NP leads in New South Wales: L-NP 54.5% cf. ALP 45.5%, Western Australia: L-NP 54.5% cf. ALP 45.5%, Tasmania: L-NP 54.5% cf. ALP 45.5%, Queensland: LNP 51% cf. ALP 49%, South Australia: L-NP 50.5% cf. ALP 49.5% and the ALP leads in Victoria: ALP 57% cf. L-NP 43%. The ALP leads comfortably in both the ACT and Northern Territory (with low sample sizes).

6769-gcr

Government confidence rating now cratering again too. And my own chart of first term PMs:

dfgw

No doubting the trend…

Comments

  1. I just had a look at the polling for 2013.

    ALP never got above 49% when Gillard was PM.

    But Rudd did get ALP to win most of the polls in July.

    But lost every poll since 26 Aug.

    So the lesson is clear. Have a snap election when you change leader.

  2. Yes, well it’s still around 50:50.

    I mean on a policy front the LNP is an absolute disaster.

    But hey, on the looks front we all don’t like that Shorten’s face, which is what REALLY maters my felliw Australians.

    Yes, so let’s all be apathetic.

    Let’s all succumb to the thinking ,we’re told that “both the major parties are just the same”.

    Policy? What’s that? Nah mate they’re all the same. And that Shorten bloke, we don’t like him.

    Yeah, let’s let the extreme right wing tories in with their extreme right wing policies in again. Good on’ya ‘Straya!!!

    • The wonders of compulsory voting.

      And also the wonders of the belief that they cannot vote for an anti-immigration party like Sustainable Australia or ALA.

      • Join Australian Liberty Alliance

        Our Australia stands for individual liberty, small government, Western values, social fairness and an integrated multi-ethnic society. Our Australia has no place for big government, racism, moral relativism, divisive multiculturalism or tolerance for the intolerant. Migrants do not dream of a new life in Australia because we are a Socialist, Islamic or tribal society. Migrants come for the freedom, justice and prosperity only Western civilisation creates. Support Australian Liberty Alliance

        • Its directors are Debbie Robinson (also national president of the Q Society, and member of SION – Stop Islamisation of Nations), her husband Tony Robinson (a prominent Perth orthopedic surgeon), Andrew and Susan Horwood (Emmaline’s Country Kitchen, Adelaide) and Ralf Schumann (national secretary, based in Melbourne).

        Skippy…. hay if Ted Cruz fails in the US maybe you can get him to run on the ALA platform down under…

      • drsmithyMEMBER

        Our Australia stands for individual liberty, small government, Western values, social fairness and an integrated multi-ethnic society. Our Australia has no place for big government, racism, moral relativism, divisive multiculturalism or tolerance for the intolerant. Migrants do not dream of a new life in Australia because we are a Socialist, Islamic or tribal society. Migrants come for the freedom, justice and prosperity only Western civilisation creates. Support Australian Liberty Alliance

        So much irony in so few words…

      • Voting is not compulsory. You can abstain on religious grounds (or simply not register to begin with). There may be other grounds as well.

        They don’t actually check to see if you vote either, just that the name is ticked off the list. Nothing more than the Crown doing a stock take on its chattal.

      • It’s not that you cannot vote for the ALA, the question is why the actual fuck would you?

    • Even if Shorten concerns people as a leadership figure, they should take comfort in some very solid performers in his Cabinet.

      A robust Cabinet with a policy sense of purpose and somewhat nebulous leader to me is preferable to a born to rule investment banker who is happy to hijack the democratic process on the flimsiest of union bashing pretenses, in order to fulfill his own leadership fantasy.

      The Libs are being blinded by their ideology, and Turnbull will never be free as a leader to instigate the type of progressive reform he pretends to believe in.

      • Yes, well unfortunately, I’m told that Australians voters don’t think like you.

        They are not at all rational. They don’t think for themselves. They vote against their interests.

        Why do you think Australia’s in the mess it’s in?

      • “Even if Shorten concerns people as a leadership figure, they should take comfort in some very solid performers in his Cabinet.”

        I’d also suggest that people should compare the policy development of Labor versus the LNP. Remember Abbott constantly banging on about how he was simply going to return the country to the Howard days?

        The LNP genuinely believed (and still do) that there was no need for policy development as they were the natural party of government and good things would just happen to the country when they were back in charge.

        In contrast, Labor has worked hard on policy development while in opposition and the results are starting to show as it becomes clear just how policy-free the government is. I think Labor is in with a damn good chance of actually winning the election…whether it will be a good election to win or lose is an open question though.

      • bolstroodMEMBER

        Get Up exit polling shows that 40% of voters do not make up their mind who to vote for until they are standing in the polling booth.

  3. It should be clear now that developer money is driving Liberal party policy. Turnbull is now looking to burn every bit of his supposed charm in pursuit of a phony union bashing tirade that actually will do nothing for productivity, innovation or agility. As usual, Turnbull is just excited to be following the money.

  4. The airwaves are already being flooded with ads. Being a fan of well produced American pap, I was watching CSI Cyber last night and it was wall to wall “innovation” ads from the Fed Gvt. It was hard to work out if the show or the ads were more implausible.

  5. Terror Australis

    If you look at the state numbers, Labor isn’t making any inroads in NSW.
    That’s their biggest hurdle to getting back to government.

    Also wtf Tasmania?
    Why would there be a swing TOWARD the govt there? Small sample size gone rogue or are there local factors i am missing?

    • thefatgeneralMEMBER

      I suspect it’s if they use 1st preference or two party preferred. Essentially the north (Launceston & the coast – Burnie/Devonport + rural areas) swings liberal and the south (Hobart) goes labour. But the Hobart (Denison electorate) vote is skewed by wilke, so if they’re only using the 1st preference the libs pull ahead as a whole bunch of Denison voters will say independent, if they use 2pp it’s much closer. Personally I think Braddon and Lyons will hold with their Liberal members but Bass will move back to Labour.

      • Terror Australis

        No, I don’t think that’s it.
        The issue is about 2PP and Morgan Pollsters ask respondents which way they would give preferences.
        So whether or not there are independents shouldn’t matter.

        I was thinking about the problems TAS is having with energy and hydro supplies?
        Is that a hot button issue down there? Who are people blaming for it?

  6. we are going to see one more electoral process turned into a deception of democracy. Than the same old story: we get the saviour, than realization, than five phases of grief: stages, denial, anger, bargaining, depression and acceptance and …than new elections

  7. Does anyone know what limitations there are in a joint sitting? Other than it being political suicide, what’s stopping a new Coaliton government from getting a rush of blood to the head and trying to introduce Wok Choice like laws, or some thing equally insidious?

    • Terror Australis

      A joint sitting can ONLY deal with the specific DD election trigger legislation. Nothing else.
      Sect 57 of the constitution (from memory).

      • True. One of the bills passed at the 1974 Joint Sitting was ruled as invalid as it had not been put in the writs (Petroleum and Minerals Authority Act 1973).

    • Another interesting point about a joint sitting is the government is basically required to have a major of the sum HoR and Senate to get things over the line as the crossbenchers are not going to be able to amend the bills. It is possible to win an election like Hawke did in 1987 but not have a majority of both House and Senate, hence the lack of the Australia card.

      • Terror Australis

        Your broad point about the government requiring an absolute majority of the two houses combined is correct. But your comment about the Australia Card in 1987 is not.

        Post-1987 election the ALP had 86 of 148 Lower House seats AND 32 of 76 Senate seats.
        Which means they had 118 votes out of 224 in a combined joint sitting, a majority of 6.

        So Hawke could have passed the Australia Card legislation if he wished.

        During the 1987 election, the Australia Card Bill was (ironically) barely even discussed.
        But after the election, for some reason, a public shit storm erupted about “government infringement on privacy of citizens” which in today’s Meta-Data monitored world sounds quaint. Anyways, the ALP decided to drop the idea.

        I remember all of this well because it was the first election in which I was old enough to vote.

    • Today's Empire Tomorrow's Ashes

      Man I wish we had Wok Choices.
      Where I live is only Noodle Box and very unreliable in their Wokking, they are.

  8. Mining BoganMEMBER

    Why are the headlines about St Mal getting a trigger? Shouldn’t they be Turnbull suffers yet another defeat?

    The media keeps framing everything in the positive for Truffles and his bunch. That will get them over the line.

  9. I love your last chart. It really does speak wonders as to how the economic challenges of the subsiding mining boom have created political turmoil for our leaders. They simply haven’t been able to construct a narrative to address the challenges, and it has cost them all dearly. It is a worthy inclusion in future mining boom analysis.

    And I agree with the sentiment that snap elections are where it is at – honeymoon periods are real, and both Rudd and Turnbull should have made the most of them.