Newspoll: Labor in front of toxic Turnbott

Another day, another Turnbott poll shocker, from The Australian:

The Coalition has surrendered its lead to Labor for the first time since Malcolm Turnbull became Prime Minister, with the latest Newspoll revealing the Bill Shorten-led opposition has pulled ahead, 51 per cent to 49 per cent, in two-party terms.

Amid mixed messages about the government’s tax policy and tensions between the Prime Minister and Treasurer Scott Mor­rison, support for the Coalition has tumbled to a six-month low as Mr Turnbull’s own standing ­continues to slide just 88 days out from a possible double-dissolution election.

The Newspoll, taken from Thursday to Sunday exclusively for The Australian, reveals the government’s primary vote has fallen to 41 per cent. It is down two points in the past fortnight and has dropped five points since the start of the year.

Roy Morgan was the first to register a Labor lead last week has recorded a swing back this week:

In early April L-NP support is 52.5% (up 3%) cf. ALP 47.5% (down 3%) on a two-party preferred basis. If a Federal Election were held now the L-NP would win.

Primary support for the L-NP is 42% (up 2%) with ALP at 31% (down 2%). Support for the Greens is down 1% to 13%, Nick Xenophon Team (NXT) 4.5% (up 0.5%; 22% in South Australia), Katter’s Australian Party is 0.5% (down 0.5%), Palmer United Party is 0% (down 0%) and Independents/ Others are at 9% (up 1%).

Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating is up this week – up 2.5pts to 106 with 42.5% (down 0.5%) of Australians saying Australia is ‘heading in the right direction’ and 36.5% (down 3%) saying Australia is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

This week’s Morgan Poll on Federal voting intention was conducted over the last two weekends, March 26/27 & April 2/3, 2016, with an Australia-wide cross-section of 3,174 Australian electors.

Analysis by Gender

Analysis by Gender shows men favouring the L-NP easily while women are slightly favouring the ALP. Men: L-NP 56% (up 4%) cf. ALP 44% (down 4%); Women: ALP 51% (down 1.5%) cf. L-NP 49% (up 1.5%).

Analysis by Age group

Analysis by Age group shows that Turnbull’s biggest problem remains convincing younger voters to support the L-NP. The ALP leads with electors under 50: 18-24yr olds (ALP 56% cf. L-NP 44%) and also leads amongst 25-34yr olds (ALP 55% cf. L-NP 45%) and 35-49yr olds (ALP 51% cf. L-NP 49%). However, the L-NP leads with the older age groups: 50-64yr olds (L-NP 54.5% cf. ALP 45.5%) and easily amongst those aged 65+ (L-NP 63.5% cf. ALP 36.5%).

Analysis by States

The L-NP now holds a two-party preferred lead in three Australian States with three favouring the ALP. The LNP leads in Queensland: LNP 57.5% cf. ALP 42.5%, Western Australia: L-NP 55% cf. ALP 45%, and New South Wales: L-NP 54% cf. ALP 46% and the ALP leads in South Australia: ALP 51% cf. L-NP 49%, Victoria: ALP 52% cf. L-NP 48% and Tasmania: ALP 56% cf. L-NP 44%.

Still, RM trend is just as obviously down for Turnbott.

And is it any wonder? From Fairfax:

Former defence minister Kevin Andrews has sparked a fresh outbreak of Liberal Party disunity after suggesting he was prepared to challenge Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull, and then claiming to have been taken out of context in an interview with his local paper.

But even as he played down the report in the ManninghamLeader, Mr Andrews, a key supporter of former prime minister Tony Abbott, raised eyebrows in Liberal ranks as he declared “at the present time, Mr Turnbull is the prime minister”.

It’s not called the loon pond for nothing.

From the AFR, apparently the poll slide is the result of Turnbott and ScoMo tensions:

Several members of the Coalition told The Australian Financial Review on Monday there were serious concerns in the ranks about what is starting to look like a dysfunctional relationship.

…”They’re a chance,” one Liberal said of Labor, noting that no one felt comfortable with the prospect of a seven-week campaign, which will happen if there is a July 2 double dissolution.

Another MP campaigning in his seat on Monday said the question most frequently posed by Liberal voters regarding the Prime Minister was “Does he know what he’s doing?”. Last week’s floating of the tax proposal, only to have it shot down in two days, fuels such doubts.

…”We need a narrative that people understand.”

These people are fools. The tensions between PM and Treasurer are symptom not cause. Turnbott sent ScoMo out to sell tax reform in the GST, negative gearing and super then yanked all three as he sank into the loon pond before blaming ScoMo for it. It’s exactly what Abbott did to Hockey and it’s entirely understandable that ScoMo can no longer stand the sight of Turnbott.

Like the rest of us.