Investor retreat continues for Sydney property

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By Leith van Onselen

Sydney’s speculator frenzy continues to fizzle-out, with today’s Lending Finance data for February, released by the ABS, revealing that the share of loans going to New South Wales investors registered their eighth consecutive monthly decline; with the annual value of investor mortgages also continuing to fall.

As shown below, the annual value of investor loans in New South Wales (read Sydney) fell for the fifth consecutive month, with Victoria (read Melbourne) – the second hottest market – also retracing, albeit more slowly:

ScreenHunter_12576 Apr. 13 11.36

According to the ABS, investor finance commitments in New South Wales in February were 9.0% lower than February 2015.

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As at February 2016, investors accounted for a still-staggering 55.3% of total housing finance commitments (excluding refinancings) in New South Wales (Sydney), although this was down sharply from the record 60.3% share posted in June 2015. Victoria’s (read Melbourne’s) share of investor mortgages also fell to 46.7% in February, down from July’s 50.5% peak:

ScreenHunter_12577 Apr. 13 11.37

Putting the two charts together for New South Wales (Sydney) yields the following:

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ScreenHunter_12578 Apr. 13 11.38

Whereas the turnaround in Victoria (Melbourne) is less severe:

ScreenHunter_12579 Apr. 13 11.38

The investor bubble that for so long juiced the housing market continues to deflate.

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About the author
Leith van Onselen is Chief Economist at the MB Fund and MB Super. He is also a co-founder of MacroBusiness. Leith has previously worked at the Australian Treasury, Victorian Treasury and Goldman Sachs.