From Goldman:
Lack of OPEC freeze is bearish sentiment but Kuwait strike is bullish fundamentals
OPEC and several non-OPEC producers failed to reach an agreement to freeze production in Doha today, Sunday April 17. Participants commented on requiring more time to reach a deal although the key stumbling block appears to be the requirement by Saudi Arabia that Iran participates. Saudi’s stance is consistent with comments by deputy crown prince Mohammed bin Salman during two interviews with Bloomberg this month (April 1 and Thursday April 13) and goes against Iran’s long held goal to quickly increase production to recover market share. On its own, we view this outcome as bearish for oil prices given consensus expectations for a “soft guidance” freeze at January production levels. But this lack of an agreement does not imply that OPEC production will recover in the short-term, as the year-to-date stabilization owes to ongoing disruptions and maintenance rather than coordination. It is further of no impact to our forecasts as year-to-date production of OPEC (ex. Iran) and Russia have remained close to our 2016 average annual forecast of 40.5 mb/d.
