Daily oil and LNG price update (Iran to join freeze?)

• Crude oil prices rallied to a four-month high in mid-April as further evidence emerged of accelerating declines in US output, while market participants held out hope that upcoming producer talks would agree a deal to help manage a still massive supply overhang. At the time of writing, Brent was at $44.30/bbl and US WTI was at $41.75/bbl.
• Growth in global oil demand will ease to around 1.2 mb/d in 2016, below 2015’s 1.8 mb/d expansion, as notable decelerations take hold across China, the US and much of Europe. Preliminary 1Q16 data reveal this is already occurring, with year-on-year growth down to +1.2 mb/d, after gains of +1.4 mb/d in 4Q15 and +2.3 mb/d in 3Q15.
• OPEC crude oil production fell by 90 kb/d in March to 32.47 mb/d as ongoing outages in Nigeria, the UAE and Iraq more than offset a further increase from Iran and higher flows from Angola. Supply from Saudi Arabia dipped in March but held near 10.2 mb/d.
• Global oil supplies sank by 0.3 mb/d in March to 96.1 mb/d, with annual gains shrinking to 0.2 mb/d, from 1.7 mb/d a month earlier and 2.7 mb/d in 2015. The outlook for non-OPEC production in 2016 is largely unchanged since last month’s Report, at 57.0 mb/d, 710 kb/d less than the 2015 average.
• 1Q16 global refinery runs are estimated 79.3 mb/d, 1.2 mb/d up year on year (y-o-y), in line with global demand growth. The forecast for 2Q16 throughput is at 79.7 mb/d, up only 0.8 mb/d y-o-y, slower than forecast 1.1 mb/d demand growth. All of the net growth in the first half of 2016 comes from non-OECD refiners.
• Commercial stocks in the OECD built counter-seasonally by 7.3 mb in February to end the month at 3 060 mb. Accordingly, the overhang of inventories against average levels widened to 387 mb at end-month. Preliminary information for March suggest OECD holdings rose further while volumes of crude held in floating storage increased.

Market Balance Draws Near