Diversifieds: All else equal, our BHP & RIO earnings estimates for CY 16 would be 1053% and 135% higher respectively, under a spot scenario. At spot, S32’s CY 16 earnings would increase 31% to US$294m. Iron ore: The spot iron ore price is 29% above our CY 16 forecast but combined with FX and freight implies a 299% upgrade to FMG’s FY 16E earnings.
This is measured against the UBS baseline forecast of $45CFR.
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David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal.
He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.
