Weekend Links 9-10 January, 2016

Russell Drysdale, Road with Rocks, 1949, Art Gallery of NSW

…more coming…

China

• As China transitions to a ‘new normal’, some financial, economic and political pain is inevitable – SCMP
• Yuan Seen Needing Bigger Depreciation for China to Reap Benefits – Bloomberg
• A New Economic Era for China Goes Off the Rails – NY Times
• What’s really important about China’s stock market disaster, and what’s not – Washington Post
• China shuts down market for second time this month as savers panic about yuan – Financial Post
• Capital flight pushes China to the brink of devaluation – Telegraph, AEP
• Is China really devaluing its currency? – Telegraph
• China goes underground to expand its strategic oil reserves – Reuters
• China’s Services Sector Expands in December – Caixin
• Beijing Party Figure ‘Got Homes for Well Below Market Value’ – Caixin
• Margin Trading Lender Closes, Prompting Investors to Turn to Police – Caixin
• One big market casualty: China regulators’ reputation – CNBC
• China regulator orders banks in some hubs to limit dollar buying this month – sources – CNBC
• China’s workforce faces tough year shifting gears from manufacturing to services – CER
• Will China drag down the world economy? – Prospect, Magnus
• Be Scared of China’s Debt, Not Its Stocks – Bloomberg
• Elite fight proxy battles via business interests –Nikkei Asian Review
• A trillion-dollar question on China’s forex dilemma: just how low should its reserves go? – SCMP
• China regulators to consider range of options in revaluation of circuit breaker rule, analysts say – SCMP
• Chinese billionaire Zhou Chengjian goes missing – BBC…another one…
• Yuan swings prompt companies to cut dollar debt – China Daily

Asia

• Japan’s real wages fall in November, 1st drop in 5 months – Nikkei Asian Review
• World Bank says Japan, Vietnam to gain significantly – Nikkei Asian Review…and the feeblest gains of the TPP belong to?…
• A New Saudi Arabia Is Suddenly in a Hurry in Era of Cheap Oil – Bloomberg
• Turkish central bank’s credibility on the line – BNE Intellinews…good read…
• IMF’s arrears change could boomerang on China-Central Asia debt – BNE Intellinews…good read…
• Saudi Arabia Has Bigger Problems Than Iran – Bloomberg…yep…
• Asian markets wobble as Chinese policymakers stumble – Nikkei Asian Review

Europe

• Greece’s Two Currencies – Project-Syndicate, Varoufakis
• Has this ‘model’ member of Europe turned rogue? – CNBC
• EU anti-fraud agency eyes Czech finance minister’s conflicts of interest – BNE Intellinews
• Getting eurozone deposit insurance right promises benefits – Bruegel
• German Industrial Production Falls Unexpectedly In November – MNI
• Greece Deserves a Break on Pension Reform – Bloomberg
• Germany Has a North African Problem – Bloomberg
• Employment is rising in Italy—but millennials are still screwed – Quartz
• Not-So-Smart Sanctions: The Failure of Western Restrictions Against Russia – Foreign Affairs… the silliest sanctions ever imposed anywhere, and will look sillier in the year ahead…
• German trade surplus narrows as industry production falls – Irish Times
• Swiss central bank loses billions from currency move – AP

United Kingdom

• George Osborne warns UK economy faces ‘cocktail of threats’ – Guardian
• UK’s record car sales driven by rising consumer confidence – Guardian
• Why it pays to commute: House prices rising so fast in commuter towns they pay for season tickets in a week – Telegraph
• Cameron’s Bold Move Will Help Avert Brexit – Bloomberg
• Here’s the real threat to the UK economy, and it’s got nothing to do with China – Telegraph, Warner
• New UK trade deficit figure prompts alarm as exports fall – Guardian
• Savings rates hit new low, says Bank of England – BBC

United States

• Payrolls in U.S. Rise More Than Projected, Jobless Rate at 5% – Bloomberg
• Can U.S. Remain an Island of Stability in the Global Economy? – NY Times
• U.S. car sales hit record high in 2015 – Washington Post
• U.S. jobs market seen fairly healthy despite slowing economy – Reuters
• New U.S. diet rules would take 20 percent bite out of American sugar use – Reuters
• Most Americans can’t handle a $500 surprise bill – CBS
• A Significant Chunk of Americans Is Still Facing Harsh Medical Debt – Slate
• Consumer Comfort Rises as Americans Turn More Upbeat on Economy – Bloomberg
• The Fed’s New Dashboard Is All About Inflation – Bloomberg
• Chinese Imports Just Doomed Another 1,200 Jobs at Alcoa – Fortune
• Why Do Americans Work So Much? – The Atlantic
• What Bernie Sanders Thinks Is Wrong With the Fed – The Atlantic
• U.S. Initial Claims for Jobless Fell Last Week, Nearing 15-Year Low – Haver Analytics

Americas

• Why homeowners and buyers can expect more mortgage rate hikes from the big banks – Financial Post
• Why China’s stock market crash is going to send more money into Vancouver housing – Financial Post
• Bank of Canada ready with ‘unconventional’ tools if needed to curb lingering damage from oil shock – Financial Post
• China’s market turmoil likely to have impact on B.C. real estate, say economists – Vancouver Sun
• The case of Hong Kong’s missing book sellers, and what it might mean for Vancouver house prices – Vancouver Sun…applies to Australia too…
• Lake Titicaca Cleanup: Bolivia, Peru Sign $500M Deal To Improve Lake’s Biodiversity Through 2025 – IB Times
• Farewell to the vultures? Argentine debt restructuring and bargaining theory – VoxEU
• Threat of hyperinflation in Venezuela – World Finance

Terra Incomprehensibilia

• Australians buy more Mercs than Fords, as luxury car sales surge – Fairfax
• Shoppers spend up in win for economy – Fairfax…must be all happening online….
• Australia’s Jobs Data Roller Coaster Seen Taking Another Loop – Bloomberg
• Petrol companies price-gouging? Says who? – Fairfax
• Why house prices will rise in 2016 – AFR, Joye
• Australia’s housing standards are failing its ageing population – The Conversation…failing everyone else too…
• Corporate-style regulation of unions won’t defeat corruption – The Conversation

Commodities

• Oil lurches closer to $20 Goldman Sachs doomsday forecast: ‘The supports are crumbling’ – Financial Post
• Battered oil sector awaits distant day of reckoning – SCMP
• Food prices plunge in 2015 on high supply, low demand, strong dollar – Reuters
• Egypt’s new wheat requirement could delay supplies – Reuters
• How long will dirt-cheap oil prices last? – CBS…quite a while…
• Commodities behind 2016’s big political risks – CNBC
• 2016: Oil Limits & The End Of The Debt Supercycle – Zero Hedge…some good analysis here, note comment vis limits to storage…
• Global food prices drop 19pc in 2015 as US dollar strengthens – Telegraph
• CHINA LPG: PRICES FALL ON LOWER JANUARY CPS, WEAK DEMAND – Platts
• Saudi- Iran dispute won’t cause lasting oil price rally – Mineweb
• Great Graphic: Is Gold Breaking Out? – Marc to Market

Capital Markets

• Fed leans on big balance sheet to soften rate hike impact – Reuters
• Can Systemic Financial Risk Be Contained? – Economonitor
• Tapped for SDR Basket, Yuan Reform Goes Global – Caixin
• The S&P 500 chart that keeps bulls awake at night – Market Watch
• For U.S. stocks, it’s a China in a bull shop – Market Watch… worth thinking about…
• Tensions mount in repo market – Euromoney
• DoJ investigates SSA bond market rigging – World Finance
• That Giant Sucking Sound You Hear Is the ETF Options Market – Bloomberg
• Maths, Not Meddling, May Explain End of Cuts in PBOC Yuan Rate – Bloomberg

Global Macro

• Saudi Arabia considers IPO for national oil group, Aramco – Guardian
• Global markets turmoil echoes 2008 financial crisis, warns George Soros – Guardian
• M.F. Breakthrough Is Seen to Bolster U.S. on World Stage – NY Times
• Yuan is China’s currency but US Federal Reserve’s problem – SCMP
• Chaos in Chinese stock market sends economic waves around the world – Washington Post
• China’s impossible trinity and America’s reality check portend a rocky 2016 – ABC, Janda
• China currency war fears wipe $2.6 trillion off global markets in four days – Telegraph
• The Global Monetary Non-System – Project-Syndicate, Rajan…worth a read…
• Why Emerging Markets Are Melting Down, and Why It Matters, in 10 Charts – WSJ
• How to escape from the slow-growth doldrums – CBS, Thoma…worth a read…
• Tax revenue trends in Asia and Latin America: A comparative analysis – VoxEU
• Emerging markets at a crossroads – VoxEU
• Another slow year for the global economy – Bruegel
• Is this really 2008 all over again? – Economist…it does have some similarities with 1998…
• Currency Devaluations by Asian Tigers Could Hinder Global Growth – NY Times
• Why China’s Stock Market Crash Could Spark a Trade War – Fortune

…and furthermore…

• How Can Banks Get Away With Charging Such High Fees? The same people own most of the big banks – Slate…very good read, and equally true of Australian banks…
• Men’s recommended weekly alcohol limit cut to 14 units – Guardian
• Drugmakers seek ways to deal with the ‘patent cliff’ – Nikkei Asian Review
• Anthropocene dawn: Scientists say humans have brought on a new geologic epoch – SCMP
• Is Fascism Back? – Project-Syndicate…did it ever leave us?…
• Facing Up to Climate Reality – Project-Syndicate, Adair Turner…we have stuffed it…
• The Closed Marketplace of Economic Ideas – Project-Syndicate, Fubini…observation alone soon takes those with ideas to the possibility mankind is being held to ransom by the 1%ers…
• How Americans Got So Fat, in Charts – Bloomberg…we have too, this explains why…
• How Is Inequality Linked to Climate Change, and What to Do About It? – Economonitor
• The “Monsters” Unmasked: Cologne Police Admit “Most Of The Attackers Were Refugees” – Zero Hedge…this incident is creating a big stink in Europe…
• Production of inequality ignorance and knowledge – RWER…classic chart…
• Re-thinking the received wisdom on education: Alternative policy lessons – VoxEU…more product, less branding…
• Designing tax policy in high-evasion economies – VoxEU…step one: stop tax breaks for speculation or price transferring…
• Netflix is everywhere (almost), so what does this mean for local media? – The Conversation
• The sun goes down on Vitamin D: why I changed my mind about this celebrated supplement – The Conversation
• Quest to find bitcoin’s founder highlights currency’s biggest threat: the taxman – The Conversation
• Easing Tenure’s Grip Can Embolden Academia – Bloomberg, Noah Smith…will also make them cheaper to buy…
• This Ancient Stomach Bug Was Also a Feature – Bloomberg…interesting…
• How Economics Went From Theory to Data – Bloomberg…well no amount of sugar in the theory is explaining the shit taste in the data…
• It’s Harder Than It Looks To Link Inequality With Global Turmoil – FiveThirtyEight
• The mass consumption era and the rise of neo-liberalism – Bill Mitchell
• US researchers are trying to grow human organs inside pigs and sheep – Quartz
• What’s the Saudi-Iran Feud Really About? – The Atlantic
• Can Taxes Encourage Better Corporate Behavior? – The Atlantic…only if they threaten pain…
• New technology puts health care in palm of your hand – Japan Times
• The dollar’s international role: An “exorbitant privilege”? – Brookings, Bernanke
• Why bullshit is no laughing matter – Aeon
• Huge currency zones don’t work – we need one per city – Aeon