Soros: EU is on verge of collapse

Strong words from probably the greatest trader of the 20th century as the “aylites” gather in Davos and make soothing noises, George Soros calls it like he sees it.

From an interview at the NY Review:

Gregor Peter Schmitz: Merkel used to be very cautious and deliberate. People could trust her. But in the migration crisis, she acted impulsively and took a big risk. Her leadership style has changed and that makes people nervous.

Soros: That’s true, but I welcome the change. There is plenty to be nervous about. As she correctly predicted, the EU is on the verge of collapse. The Greek crisis taught the European authorities the art of muddling through one crisis after another. This practice is popularly known as kicking the can down the road, although it would be more accurate to describe it as kicking a ball uphill so that it keeps rolling back down. The EU now is confronted with not one but five or six crises at the same time.

Schmitz: To be specific, are you referring to Greece, Russia, Ukraine, the coming British referendum, and the migration crisis?

Soros: Yes. And you haven’t even mentioned the root cause of the migration crisis: the conflict in Syria. Nor have you mentioned the unfortunate effect that the terrorist attacks in Paris and elsewhere have had on European public opinion.

Merkel correctly foresaw the potential of the migration crisis to destroy the European Union. What was a prediction has become the reality. The European Union badly needs fixing. This is a fact but it is not irreversible. And the people who can stop Merkel’s dire prediction from coming true are actually the German people. I think the Germans, under the leadership of Merkel, have achieved a position of hegemony. But they achieved it very cheaply. Normally hegemons have to look out not only for their own interests, but also for the interests of those who are under their protection. Now it’s time for Germans to decide: Do they want to accept the responsibilities and the liabilities involved in being the dominant power in Europe?

That is the key denominator of the German mercantilism model, post reunification. It has been a very cheap ride for the Germans at the expense of the rest of Europe (mainly the South).

The future of Europe remains in their hands, or it will taken away from them by extremists, just as it happened in the past. This does explain the ECBs hypervigilance against inflation, even if it puts a light under extreme left and right wing factions across the depressed South.

Tonights ECB meeting won’t change things – it will take more than monetary policy to fix this endemic problem, and Soros knows that.

 

More:

Soros: The Soviet Union has been replaced by a resurgent Russia and the European Union has come to be dominated by the forces of nationalism. The open society that both Merkel and I believe in because of our personal histories, and that the reformers of the new Ukraine want to join because of their personal histories, does not really exist. The European Union was meant to be a voluntary association of equals but the euro crisis turned it into a relationship between debtors and creditors where the debtors have difficulties in meeting their obligations and the creditors set the conditions that the debtors have to meet. That relationship is neither voluntary nor equal.

The migration crisis introduced other fissures. Therefore, the very survival of the EU is at risk.

 

 

 

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Comments

  1. Good, the sooner the better so we can return to what De Gaulle originally wanted, a Europe of nations not a nation of Europe

  2. GunnamattaMEMBER

    For much of the EU the pro or against EU axis starts to take on a big end of town (pro) against the mug punterariat (against) angle…….

    The global market meltdowns have broadly created the impression the elites arent really helping or doing much for the punters, and that, worse, they dont have a game plan which works. The model isnt delivering better quality of life, better security (vis Russia, Ukraine or immigrants coming in from Middle East) or more jobs, it is delivering fewer jobs, exporting the higher paying jobs to someone else, aggravating security concerns, and doing sweet FA about migration from the ME (which is having unfortunate consequences on the streets – see Koln – and having ordinary people across the EU feel increasingly alienated.

    That same dynamic exists in the United Kingdom but the punterariat now have some right wing (Tory) leadership which will see them go to vote, and the current outlook is that while it is a long way from certain it is also not inconceivable that the Poms may vote to opt out, and that that voting dynamic could well boil down to London (pro EU – mainly through fear of financial sector jobs implications if they vote out) versus the rest of the UK (largely anti EU)

    The weakness of the big end/Davos set/ position is that they have shown themselves incapable of delivering outcomes for little people, and they have shown themselves perfectly capable of trashing societies (see Greece, but also Spain, Portugal) to keep the big end with the hand at the tiller, and about the only thing they have done cohesively as an EU elite is piss off the Russians.

    And then theres the Trade agreement they are trying to get up with the Americans, which is every bit as feeble in terms of outcomes as the TPP for us

    • To some depending upon thier views Soros is a raging right wing neo liberal and to others he is a raging communist. If one lays aside the neo liberal and patriotic views of the EU and its collection of nation states, there is a dramatic democratic deficit occurring, which is seldom mentioned and related to the future (certain Soros’s OSI understands).

      The mobility of youth and working age populations has been a boon not just for themselves, but by contributing to central eastern Europen economies via not being unemployed at home or on the street, remittances (while paying taxes in UK, Germany etc.), and by bringing expertise and ideas home, if attractive…..

      However, issue of political power, there is split emerging between the ageing native conservative ethno nationalist voters at home with dodgy politicians (especiallly regional electorates) versus the now savvy EU mobile youth and working age who are not excluded from voting, but precluded by logistics (same with Oz too), as they are viewed as a threat to an ageing conservative status quo.

      Further, issue the EU is now demanding of newer EU states (10 years too late), you cannot demand membership, take accession funds with one hand (with opaque financial management and allocation) then demonise the EU for advantage in domestic politics …. the responsibility is two ways.

      The dirty little secret or ‘face’ issue national politicans have is relevance (and integrity), i.e. youth, working age and educated people tend to ignore them when they have access to the outside world. While rabble rousing may make good short term political tactics, it’s not a smart medium long term strategy for any nation.

      In the Oz context, already some of these nations aka Poland etc. are doing quite a good impersonation of Joh Bjelke’s QLD of the 1970s…. However, while Poland argues with and about the EU and Germany, Putin is overjoyed, but what does Poland do if Russia starts poking a finger in it’s direction?

      • GunnamattaMEMBER

        ‘However, issue of political power, there is split emerging between the ageing native conservative ethno nationalist voters at home with dodgy politicians (especiallly regional electorates) versus the now savvy EU mobile youth and working age who are not excluded from voting, but precluded by logistics (same with Oz too), as they are viewed as a threat to an ageing conservative status quo.’

        You, Sir, are living in cloud cuckoo land…..(and an apologist for the big end)

        Those Savvy EU mobile youths not being wasted at home are here…..

        as for

        Further, issue the EU is now demanding of newer EU states (10 years too late), you cannot demand membership, take accession funds with one hand (with opaque financial management and allocation) then demonise the EU for advantage in domestic politics …. the responsibility is two ways.

        You have that two way responsibility round the wrong way.

        The EU elites cant simply buy off nations with infrastructure funding, and replace local bureaucracy and corruption with EU level bureaucracy and corruption, without delivering outcomes for people on the ground and addressing their concerns and issues.

        The last few years have provided ample examples (See Greece, but Italy, Spain, Portugal, Ireland, Hungary) of the preparedness of EU elites to wipe their bums on the public opinion of any nation they think they have purchased, and this without bringing about any of the supposedly better economic circumstance EU membership portended up to a decade ago. Indeed there would now be a generation coming to maturity in a number of EU states for whom the EU has never been in living memory anything but the source of considerable oppression. Coughing up the rights of Greeks to protect banking bondholders in Frankfurt is a chicken which is still coming home to roost.

        and as for…….

        The dirty little secret or ‘face’ issue national politicans have is relevance (and integrity), i.e. youth, working age and educated people tend to ignore them when they have access to the outside world. While rabble rousing may make good short term political tactics, it’s not a smart medium long term strategy for any nation.

        …..if you have some relevance or integrity pointers for the likes of Juncker or Barosso and their like feel free to post them…

      • @Gunnamatta

        You have been very quiet for a long time. You should comment some more. Apologists for the people smugglers and big population growth (not to mention those telling the ‘Porkies’ about the EU youth unemployment) should be debunked more often.

      • There are differences between central eastern Europe and southern Europe (in addition to demographics e.g. Germany is facing in future, a crashing working age population), though more in common.

        Nice snapshot of headline unemployment stats now, but what are the trends? What is the validity of data when many states include their citizen ’emigrants’ working elsewhere in the EU in the data, to lower unemployment stats (those with low numbers), and increase their population count (otherwise be shrinking). If you are unemployed youth or working age many look for work in Northern Europe, Germany and UK. Further, the EU is experiencing skill shortages with high unemployment, how? Like Oz mismatch between education and training with skills for not just now, but the future e.g. issue about graduating too many lawyers, both Oz and Europe, part of the need for ‘white collar’ careers and status…..

        Won’t even try to reply to the rest of the ranting and ad hominen ….. of course central eastern States are squeaky clean in their governance and corruption has never happened….. nice to see someone respects the leadership of nations who look to Erdogan and Putin for political and economic ideas?

        One would almost suspect that MB is a bunch of the privileged elite preferring top down system while masquerading as concerned citizens of the (old) left and right with needs for stronger borders, one identity, authoritarian leadership and lots of workers toiling away in heavy industry or similar Tayloresque scientifically managed (preferred by both Stalin and capitalists) industries, it all leads to maintaining the status quo?

        Apologies for trying to speak up for disenfranchised youth being screwed by ageing conservative constituencies 🙂

      • GunnamattaMEMBER

        Trends, by all means let us see trends.

        A whole generation fed to bondholders in Frankfurt and Switzerland by the Davos set and their EU lackeys…

    • reusachtigeMEMBER

      He obviously has money on it and wants it to pay. Evil, pure evil. He’s the bad guy in the Bond movies yet the permachaotics on here love him.

      • No one necessarily ‘loves him’. I could care less about Soros but Europe is a disaster that is broken.

  3. I may be a tad cynical but I suspect Soros is talking his book. Europe may be on the verge of collapse, but it was just as much on the verge of collapse two weeks ago. Now that the world is gripped with fear George starts telling everyone the EU is about to collapse.

  4. If it does collapse then what? The whole place sinks into anarchy and millions of European refugees pour out in search of a new home?

    • No one anywhere is prosperous enough to take them.

      It’s clear the current invasion by many imitating Syrian refugees is creating the perception that accepting an unfettered wave of people is a mistake, further compounding the lack of mobility.

      It’ll likely be internal conflict based on racial and/or religious lines.

      • How about they go to where there are 64 million empty apartments; new, empty cities waiting for residents and a demographic black hole is opening up?

      • ” unfettered wave of people is a mistake”

        Who would have thought! Neoliberalism at work. An ideology that rejects common sense, reality and rational thought all at once.

      • Janet,

        There is no demographic black hole opening up. The idea that a country with an urbanisation rate of about 55% is running out of people to urbanise isn’t particularly credible. There is still lots of people to urbanise if they are willing and able.

      • Not true. The Middle Eastern Gulf states are rich as, speak similar languages and have similar cultures and religions to the migrants. It makes sense for the ‘refugees’ among them to go to those rich countries. Yet we all know those ME states have taken collectively ZERO people (yet have the money to fund mosque building all over the West). Saudi Arabia refuses to take refugees = deafening silence. Hungary, Poland or Germany takes cautious stance against refugees = RAAACISM!

        It’s insanity.

        But in the end, the sham will end for all those exploiting the Willkommenskultur of guilt-laden Europeans. Europe will defend itself. Crusades 2.0 style. It’s coming.

      • When I said “No one anywhere is prosperous enough to take them.”, it was a reference to “The whole place sinks into anarchy and millions of European refugees pour out in search of a new home?”

        i.e. the concomitant movement of Europeans out of Europe… that’s what I meant by “No one anywhere is prosperous enough to take them.”

        I think by closing sentence demonstrates there will be a high likelihood for a final solution to the Wahhabi problem.

      • Ahh gotcha. Though I imagine the costs would not be as high. Our own history tells us that Europeans assimilate well. The costs to have them here would be less than they’re spending now teaching their local language, and re-educating ‘new migrants’ on basic Western values like not raping or abusing women on the streets or in public pools (sadly, true stories reported elsewhere).

    • “If it does collapse then what?”

      Then Soros and his mates make a motza.

      If it doesn’t collapse and Europe moves towards a stronger Union then Soros and his mates will make even more money. Europe can’t stay in the no mans land where it currently is for too much longer…

      Soros and his mates are ‘Heads we win, Tails you lose’ type of people.

  5. The problem Soros and many of his ilk have is that they view today’s Russia as being the Soviet Union, as he puts it because of their “shared histories.” This inability of people in positions of influence who remember the CCCP iron curtin and inability to overcome their histories is what is actually stoking a new crisis. Their histories dictate that they continue to treat a resurgent Russia as something to be feared and not integrated. This will see it become exactly this, by pushing an anti-soviet alliance to its borders, demonising its leader and people, deliberately overthrowing the govt. in Ukraine to be replaced by even more corrupt criminals and acts of war such as sanctions.

    Many of the problems the EU face are of their own doing. Their inability to stop US meddling in Ukraine, which has destroyed the country, Syria, ditto, Libya, ditto. The truth is the EU and the people in it are getting everything they deserve!

    • Australians too are getting the government they deserve, as are Canadians, Americans the Poms,… People´s ability to see the speck of sawdust in other people´s eyes but failing to see the plank in theirs is remarkable.

  6. Nah – never under-estimate the ability to kick the can down the road further.

    Its a bit like the Brexit – which is never going to happen. Cameron will roll over to Merkel like the poodle he is. The EU will give some non-destript latitude, Cameron will campaign to scare the populace silly, it will work, and the win ratio will be 7:3. It won’t even be close.

    The EU could continue for decades yet (maybe not the Euro). Yes the EU will eventually fail, but with this generation; but maybe the next being born now.

    • As will the UK. Heck, lets Balcanize the world now that we are at it so the wrinklies can then send their grandkinds into the next war for “freedom” (defined as the winner´s point of view).

  7. Maybe financial collapse – yet so is everywhere else. And just ask anyone living in Greece, Spain, Italy, Portugal, France.. they would agree

    So George may be wanting to short something… so what he already did that… just getting bored, no solutions, just pointing out problems

  8. Mmmm ,,, Europe isn’t broken, but the monetary union certainly is which I think is the takeaway from Soros. The ECB is a complete disgrace, but the rules are so flakey it’s fertile ground for the big end to pursue their narrow interests at the expense of the communities. From the outset it was/is doomed. The states gave away their monetary policy controls and their fiscal policies are choked by ridiculous “economic” targets. The ECB and gangster states are in cahoots and the entire democratic process has been lost.

  9. Dear Mr Soros,

    This was always going to be the end product of your misguided attempt to cram your version of “Open Society” down Europe’s throat.

    Signed,

    Everybody told you so.