Weekend Links 5-6 December, 2015

Fred Williams, Lal-Lal Falls, 1976, Art Gallery NSW

China

• Xi Unveils $60 Billion Funding Pledge at South Africa Summit – Bloomberg
• Think tank calls for new steps to support the housing market – China Daily
• Top China Cop Targets Bankers After Putting Away Security Czar – Bloomberg
• True global status for yuan remains a distant prospect – Nikkei Asian Review
• China to Start Stock Circuit Breaker After New Year, Caixin Says – Bloomberg
• For China, the End of the Beginning on Road to a Global Currency – Bloomberg
• China’s richest man, Wang Jianlin, blasts ‘money-squandering’ e-commerce start ups – SCMP
• China signs deals worth HK$50 billion with South Africa – SCMP
• China’s Twin Challenges – Project-Syndicate, Turner…good read…
• China’s Online Financial Sector Comes of Age – Project-Syndicate
• China’s music dream is out of tune with reality – Reuters
• Banks Raise Dams, Fend Off Toxic Debt Crisis – Caixin
• Bumpy Road Ahead for P2P Lending Industry, Analysts say – Caixin
• Hong Kong Housing Bubble Suffers Spectacular Collapse As Sales Plunge 42% To Record Low – Zero Hedge
• China to become global nuclear energy player with 110 reactors – China Daily
• Yuan’s credibility hinges on liberalization – Nikkei Asian Review
• Default looms for 300m yuan bond issued by Sichuan Shengda Group – SCMP
• China expected to double strategic oil purchases next year – Reuters
• Li pledges to cut back on overcapacity – China Daily

Asia

• Tokyo to slash debt dependence in fiscal 2016 – Nikkei Asian Review
• Refinancing woes weigh on Indonesian companies – Nikkei Asian Review…this is being replicated across the EM space…
• Sizing up the Asia Pacific’s booming alternative finance sector – The Conversation
• Japan’s Solution Is to Raise Wages by 10 Percent – Peterson Institute
• Could Indonesia’s entry complicate an OPEC production cut? – CNBC
• Electricity shortages and industry: Evidence from India – VoxEU
• Is the renminbi’s future as a global or regional currency? – VoxEU

Europe

• ‘There cannot be a limit’ to stimulus, says ECB president Mario Draghi – Telegraph…was he just speaking for the ECB?…
• Mario Draghi riles Germany with QE overkill – Telegraph, AEP
• Bank of France trims French growth, inflation estimates – CNBC
• Russian pipeline drives through the heart of Europe – BNE Intellinews
• Investors got ECB odds wrong but Draghi could pay hefty price – Guardian
• How the eurozone missed its shot at a recovery – Telegraph
• European Commission launches probe into McDonald’s tax affairs – Telegraph
• Turkey row leaves Russia stuck with abandoned gas pipes worth billions – Reuters
• A Ukrainian oligarch’s foiled homecoming – Politico…people like this run Ukraine….
• Europe’s Barbarians Inside the Gate – Economonitor, Roubini
• Bundesbank’s Weidmann sets face against ECB moves – Market Watch
• Cold Turkey for Russian holidaymakers as geopolitics clip their wings – BNE Intellinews
• EZ internal devaluations: Evidence on negative demand spillovers – VoxEU
• Luxembourg plots to steal London’s financial crown – Telegraph
• Mario Draghi’s big bazooka turns into a peashooter – Guardian
• Brussels confirms major investigation into McDonald’s tax deals– Guardian
• ECB comes up short: Investors disappointed after Draghi fails to deliver another bazooka – Financial Post
• Overcoming Europe’s Twin Growth Challenges – Project-Syndicate
• Speculation grows about Kudrin rejoining Russian government – BNE Intellinews…the only man VVP listens to…
• Distributional consequences of asset price inflation in the Eurozone – VoxEU
• China, the SDR and a Less Eurocentric World – Caixin, Chandler

United Kingdom

• UK house prices set to rise further as demand outstrips supply – Guardian
• Britain’s dominant services sector drives growth in the final quarter – Telegraph
• US, UK tout 1815 pact as ‘Brexit’ question looms – Politico
• City of London’s tax bill hits highest since financial crisis – Telegraph

United States

• U.S. economy added 211,000 jobs in November; unemployment rate holds at 5 percent – Washington Post
• Trade Gap Unexpectedly Widens on Drop in U.S. Exports – Bloomberg
• Fed’s Yellen faces battle in 2016 after getting all clear for December hike – Reuters
• Sturdy U.S. employment report a green light for December rate hike – Reuters
• Strong US jobs growth puts Fed on track to raise interest rates – Telegraph
• Robust Jobs Report All but Guarantees Fed Will Raise Rates – NY Times
• The Economy Is Growing, but Not Fixed Yet – NY Times
• US economy adds 211,000 jobs as interest rate hike nears – Guardian
• Yellen Says Economy Is Ready for an Interest-Rate Increase – NY Times
• In Pennsylvania, a Steel Mill and Its Workers at a Crossroads – NY Times
• Chinese Cash Floods U.S. Real Estate Market – NY Times
• Failure at the Financial Stability Board – Project-Syndicate
• U.S. officials seek business help to sell Pacific trade pact – Reuters
• Tax deal swelling into $800 billion blowout – Politico
• A battle over billions in business tax incentives – CBS
• Good Times Are Back For American Autoworkers After A Long And Painful Road – IB Times
• Mass Shootings: Gun Control Advocates Face An Industry With Big Economic Footprint Across America – IB Times
• Auto Loan Madness Continues As US Car Buyers Take On Record Debt, Lunatic Financing Terms – Zero Hedge
• November ISM non-manufacturing confirms consumer growth – Bonddad
• Private-sector job growth accelerated to 217,000 in November, ADP says – LA Times
• Landlords to Pay $5 Million for Dodging Rent Laws – ProPublica
• Jobs report’s big question mark: Will pay growth continue? – CBS

Americas

• Canada faces house-price dilemma in push to tighten mortgages – Financial Post
• Foreign owners took a bigger piece of Toronto, Vancouver condo markets in 2015: CMHC – Financial Post
• Brazil’s Economy Shrank 1.7% In Third Quarter – IB Times
• Stephen Harper’s cuts help Canada buck global post-recession trend toward higher taxes – Financial Post
• Mortgage industry insider says Finance is pondering hike to minimum down payment – Financial Post
• Expect more North American oil, gas companies to default if price slump continues: Moody’s – Financial Post
• Canada loses almost 36,000 jobs in November, as economy veers to downward course – Financial Post
• Puerto Rico’s Debt Relief to Get Supreme Court Hearing – NY Times
• Canada October Trade Deficit Exceeds All Forecasts on Exports – Bloomberg
• Goldman Warns of Brazil Depression After GDP Plunges Again – Bloomberg

Terra Tax Avoidus

• Be sure to read the fine print in Turnbull’s mid-yeareconomic update – The Conversation
• Tax and regulation key to Turnbull dream of agile economy – tech guru – Guardian
• Australia’s GDP up 0.9% over quarter – great headline but not the full story – Guardian
• Macquarie Bank under fire after ‘get rich quick’ pitch leaves investors in debt – ABC
• NBN Co accused of duplication, overbuilding existing internet services – ABC
• Time to focus on what is important after Senate blocks changes to boards of superannuation funds – ABC
• BHP Billiton can’t afford another train wreck – Fairfax
• Gina Rinehart’s Roy Hill forced to arbitration with Samsung – Fairfax
• New laws target financial planner ethics and education standards – Fairfax
• A European Union-Australia trade deal may heal a troubled history – The Conversation
• Industry super funds saved from US-style ideology – The Conversation
• Why levying GST on banking has been in the ‘too hard’ basket – The Conversation
• Too middle class for a mortgage: Broker claims ‘nanny state’ banks turning down families with high spending – NZ Herald
• Rent-seekers in the motor industry – Pearls & Irritations
• Why we don’t want private health insurance for primary care – Pearls & Irritations
• Cory Bernardi crosses floor and unleashes on Turnbull over tax disclosure backflip – Fairfax
• Phoenix Institute closes after government crackdown, students devastated – Fairfax
• Your insurer wants to know everything about you – Fairfax…so they can work out when you should die?…
• The renaissance of Rio Tinto has Sam Walsh smiling – Fairfax… corporate panegyric again on the menu…
• Australian economy’s miraculous escape or just maths? – Fairfax, Gitto
• Financial planner code of ethics in spotlight – Fairfax…didn’t know they could make light beams that small…

Commodities

• Paralysed Opec pleads for allies as oil price crumbles – Telegraph, AEP
• OPEC Fights to Stay Relevant – Bloomberg, Bershidsky
• OPEC Offers No Hope for End to Oil Slump as Target Removed – Bloomberg
• OPEC fails to agree production ceiling after Iran pledges output boost – Reuters
• OPEC’s ‘victory’ against rivals comes at heavy price – Financial Post
• Why Bankruptcy Might Be the Mining Industry’s Last Best Hope – Bloomberg
• Don’t write off the future of oil and gas just yet – Telegraph
• Oil traders get closer look at what might prompt Saudi rethink – Reuters
• Congo mine tests Glencore’s efforts to weather copper slump – Reuters
• OPEC Heads for Status Quo as Members Clash Over Output Cut – Bloomberg
• Gold continues to fall – so why do these investors still own so much of it? – Telegraph
• Oil speculators risk ‘short squeeze’ if impulsive Saudi Prince throws Opec surprise – Telegraph, AEP
• Budget deal could lift oil export ban – Politico
• Gold miner Newmont sees costs below $1,000/ounce for next 5 years – Reuters
• OPEC set for policy rollover, no sign of Saudi cut plan: sources – Reuters
• Why the Chinese metal production cuts won’t work – Reuters, Home
• Expensive oil options point to fear of sudden price move – Reuters, Kemp
• Nickel’s caught in a vicious circle but who’s to blame? – Reuters, Home
• Iran renews oil contracts with China, taps new buyers – Reuters
• BHP Billiton CEO bearish on commodities price outlook – Reuters
• Steel profit secondary to China mills exporting record surpluses – Mineweb
• The price of oil and the price of carbon – VoxEU
• Glencore’s credit rating under strain if copper remains down – Mineweb
• The 3 factors that are overwhelming OPEC – CNBC
• Egypt: The catalyst for a new Eastern Mediterranean gas hub? – Bruegel
• Russia-Turkey wheat trade up in the air as war of words continues – Platts

Capital Markets

• There’s Been a Bezzle-Fueled Boom in Bonds – Bloomberg
• Gross Says `De-Risk’ Portfolios as Wile E. Coyote Time Nears – Bloomberg
• Ten Years of Failure and Counting; Analysts Misjudge Yen, Aussie – Bloomberg
• Which currencies will swim and which will sink as US raises interest rates? – SCMP
• Reinventing Financial Regulation: A Blueprint for Overcoming Systemic Risk – Peterson Institute
• How Non-Bank Lenders Pull Business from Banks – WSJ
• A contrarian perspective on the short euro trade – Sober Look

Global Macro

• Negative interest rates: Bankers v mattresses – Economist
• The Great Policy Divergence – Nikkei Asian Review, El-Erian
• Why Negative Interest Rates Are Becoming the New Normal – NY Times
• China’s Slowdown Tarnishes Economic Boom in Copper-Rich Zambia – NY Times
• Trends in International Reserves, China Aside – Peterson Institute
• Why Syria is the canary in the coal mine for a new era of world conflict – Reuters
• Presenting The Mechanics Of “Liftoff” Or, How The Fed Actually Hikes Rates – Zero Hedge
• 11 “Alarm Bells” That Show The Global Economic Crisis Is Getting Deeper – Zero Hedge
• Emerging economies look to replicate Asia-Pacific success – Nikkei Asian Review
• Import competition and mental distress: The hidden cost of globalisation – VoxEU
• Demand, Supply, and what is new after 2008 – Angry Bear…worth a look…
• Demand, Supply, and Macroeconomic Models – NY Times, Krugman…worth a look…
• The Trouble With Interest Rates – Project-Syndicate, De Long…something to think about…
• PIIE Chart: How Quickly Are Tariffs Eliminated in the TPP? – Peterson Institute
• Scared of a China hard landing? You should be – CNBC
• How Mark Zuckerberg’s Altruism Helps Himself – ProPublica
• The Real Value of the ISIS Antiquities Trade – New Yorker
• Global Tax Dodging Just One Part of Pfizer’s Corrupt Business Model – INET
• Have central banks lost their ability to control inflation? – Bruegel
• Interest Rate Policy Uncertainties – Economonitor
• The IMF’s decision on the yuan is a victory for China — and a challenge – LA Times
• Fears grow over the ‘Karabakh factor’ in Russia-Turkey spat – BNE Intellinews…this is where a Russia-Turkey spat becomes very dangerous…

…and furthermore….

• Mega cities will be hot spots for real estate investment in new growth era – SCMP…not if there are ghost cities near them…
• Low fossil fuel prices hindering climate change fight, says IMF – Guardian
• The unusual story of America’s first mass shooting – Washington Post
• Reverse mortgages require a lot of forward thinking before committing – Washington Post
• Cancer-Drug Prices Vary Widely Even Among Countries With Curbs – Bloomberg…why would drugs be more expensive in NZ than Oz?…
• Zero to Expert in Eight Hours: These Robots Can Learn For Themselves – Bloomberg
• Sexually transmitted debt: The surprise you don’t want this Christmas – ABC
• Zuckerberg Defends Structure of His Philanthropic Outfit – NY Times
• How Mark Zuckerberg’s Altruism Helps Himself – NY Times
• Germany May Offer Model for Reining In Fossil Fuel Use – NY Times
• Pfizer’s Long War on Taxation – NY Times
• Imagining a World Without Growth – NY Times
• From Good Intentions to Deep Decarbonization – Project-Syndicate
• Antimicrobial Resistance on the Global Agenda – Project-Syndicate
• Global taxi app alliance will test faith in Uber – Reuters
• The Vatican can’t seem to get out of the secrets business – Reuters
• If the answer is $2.3 trillion, can you guess the question? – Reuters
• Zuckerbergs to give 99% of their Facebook shares to charity – LA Times
• The Welfare State: A Terrible Name for an Essential System – The Atlantic
• The Return of Syphilis – The Atlantic
• FIFA in Double Trouble – The Atlantic…an ugly organisation…
• Age Discrimination In The Job Market May Hurt Women More – FiveThirtyEight
• What Can You Actually Do With Your Fancy Gene-Editing Technology? – The Atlantic
• To Edit the Human Genome Now Would Be “Irresponsible” – Slate
• The Race to Create Elon Musk’s Hyperloop Heats Up – WSJ
• Greenhouse-gas emissions: current level, proposed level and level needed to avoid calamity – RWER
• World’s richest 10% produce half the pollution: Oxfam – CNBC
• THE GROWING VALUE OF SOCIAL SKILLS – Pieria
• Paris Climate Talks: Nuclear Fusion Is The ‘Holy Grail’ Of Clean Energy Technology – IB Times