China destroys big miners steel outlook

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From the AFR:

[A] report released on Monday by the China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute predicts steel production will fall 3.1 per cent to 781 million tonnes in 2016, as economic growth continues to moderate.

…The China Academy of Social Sciences believes there are nearly 18 million unsold apartments across the country.

This apartment glut, particularly in regional cities, has removed the key driver of demand for steel and few believe it is likely to recover in the near term.

Correct. Almost exactly the MB outlook, actually, and treating the big miners’ one billion tonnes steel output target with the contempt that it deserves.

About the author
David Llewellyn-Smith is Chief Strategist at the MB Fund and MB Super. David is the founding publisher and editor of MacroBusiness and was the founding publisher and global economy editor of The Diplomat, the Asia Pacific’s leading geo-politics and economics portal. He is also a former gold trader and economic commentator at The Sydney Morning Herald, The Age, the ABC and Business Spectator. He is the co-author of The Great Crash of 2008 with Ross Garnaut and was the editor of the second Garnaut Climate Change Review.